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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed falters once more as Brent takes USD 100/bbl, awaiting the Treasury buyback announcement

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  • Unsurprisingly, given the late-Tuesday action, Gilts gapped lower at the open. Down by 19 ticks and then another 12 to a 85.69 low, but clear of Tuesday’s 85.56 base. Since, in a morning of somewhat less macro newsflow than the last few days, the benchmark has held in proximity to that low, unable to find and respite as peers did overnight; though, they too have faded in recent trade.
  • Bunds spent the APAC session modestly in the red, but in a very thin range, as the complex awaited a major update on the geopolitical front. Since, in the European morning as energy climbs and after Brent surpassed the USD 100/bbl handle, further pressure has emerged taking Bunds to a 121.71 low. Just above Monday’s 121.73 base, and Tuesday’s 121.64 thereafter. Concerning for Europe, and lifting short-end yields in particular, is the ongoing climb of TTF, to over EUR 79/MWh today, a high for the October contract. An ascent that underscores the expected ECB hike on Thursday.
  • USTs were flat/firmer in APAC trade, holding around 107-10 for the most part. Since, given the above, some modest pressure has emerged to take the benchmark just into the red by a tick or so and a similar amount from a double-bottom at 107-08. Today is focused firmly on the Treasury buyback announcement, the first after the move to at least double the long-end operations from the current USD 2bln maximum. Given the “at least” language, and the commentary from Secretary Bessent that operations could be above the implied USD 4bln level if required, we are attentive to the announced size, any scheduling update and/or accompanying commentary the Treasury may choose to provide.

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