[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 33: Trump to deliver a nationwide address on Iran on Wednesday at 21:00EDT/02:00BST

MAIN POINTS:

Trump said the US may leave Iran in two to three weeks, or sooner if a deal is reached, and said the war is coming to an end.
Washington increasingly appears willing to declare success even if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened.
Trump is due to deliver a nationwide address on Iran on Wednesday at 21:00EDT/02:00BST on Thursday.
The US is reinforcing the theatre further, with reports that it is to deploy a third aircraft carrier, while the UAE is reportedly preparing to help reopen Hormuz by force.
Iran continued to reject the idea that current contacts amount to negotiations and said it is ready for at least six months of war if necessary.
Regional risk remained elevated, with fresh strikes in Iran, a tanker hit near Doha, attacks on US bases in Iraq, and renewed Yemen-related missile activity toward Israel.

US:

Trump said all he has to do to lower gas prices is leave Iran.
Trump suggested the US will be leaving Iran in two weeks, or maybe three weeks.
Trump said they are finishing the job, which may take two to three weeks.
Trump said a deal could still be made before then.
Trump said the US has been negotiating with Iran.
Trump said the US could exit the war even without a deal with Iran.
Trump reiterated that there had been a regime change.
Trump told NBC News that the Iran war is coming to an end.
Trump is due to give a nationwide address on Iran on Wednesday at 21:00EDT/02:00BST.
Trump and his administration increasingly believe they may not be able to promise reopening the Strait of Hormuz as a prerequisite for declaring mission accomplished.

MILITARY POSTURE

US Secretary of State Rubio said the US has largely destroyed Iran’s air force and can see the finish line with its Iran objectives.
Rubio said the end of the war is not today and not tomorrow, but it is coming.
Rubio said there is potential for a direct meeting with Iran at some point.
Rubio also said the US will re-examine NATO ties after the Iran war.
A White House official said Trump is confident an agreement will be reached soon.
The official said Trump has been clear about the consequences of failing to reach an agreement.
The White House also said the US military is prepared to curtail any attacks by Iran against US companies.
The US is reportedly deploying a third aircraft carrier, USS George H.W. Bush, to the Middle East.
The UAE is reportedly preparing to help the US and allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
Daily Mail’s Andrew Neil said White House sources told him Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island.

IRAN

Iranian President Pezeshkian said the solution is an end to aggression.
Pezeshkian said Iran seeks no war, but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks.
Pezeshkian told the President of the European Council that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to ships of aggressor countries and their supporters.
Araghchi said what is happening now is not negotiations but an exchange of messages, directly or through regional friends.
Araghchi said there is no truth to claims of negotiations with a specific Iranian entity.
Araghchi said messages arrive via the Foreign Ministry, while communications also take place between security agencies.
Araghchi said the message exchange is conducted through the government and under National Security Council supervision.
Araghchi said Iran has zero trust in the US.
Araghchi dismissed the effectiveness of any potential ground operation targeting Iran.
Araghchi said guarantees from one or two countries, or from the UN Security Council, are not enough.
Araghchi said Iran has no plans for negotiations with the US.
Araghchi said Iran is ready for any ground threat and is prepared for at least six months of war.

ISRAEL

Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel is systematically striking the Iranian regime.
The Israeli army said it struck rocket launch sites in southern Lebanon.
The Israeli military identified the launch of a missile from Yemen toward Israel.
Reports said the Houthis had earlier entered the war, and Yemen remained an active front.

STRIKES

Explosions were heard following bombing of a site in Bushehr, Iran.
Reports noted intense shelling on Natanz, Iran.
Reports also cited shelling of Haqani Pier, Iran.
Several explosions were also heard in Qazvin and Isfahan, Iran.
Iran’s Mobarakeh and Khuzestan steel plants were hit in US-Israeli strikes.
UKMTO received a report of an incident 17 nautical miles north of Doha involving a tanker hit by an unknown projectile, though the crew were safe.
An Iranian drone struck the US Victoria base in Baghdad, Iraq.
A powerful explosion rocked the US base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan.
Saudi Arabia said two new drones were intercepted. Arab sources reported the sound of explosions in Saudi Arabia this morning; US interests in Saudi Arabia have been targeted, Fars News reports.
Iran is reportedly ready to target the port of Fujairah and its key oil pipeline to shut the UAE’s bypass route around Hormuz if the UAE continues to support US and Israeli attacks.
Yemeni Houthis claimed a joint attack with Hezbollah against Israel, says the escalations will only drive Yemen "to further escalation in the coming period until the aggression stops and the blockade is lifted".