[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 35: Regional strikes continue while the prospect of a near-term de-escalation remains thin

MAIN POINTS:

• US President Trump threatened more strikes on Iran, saying bridges are next and electric power plants will also be hit if Tehran does not do “what has to be done”.
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf responded defiantly, saying Iranians will “bleed” to defend the country and warning the US and Israel that they will face the whole nation.
• Multiple explosions and fighter jet activity were reported across several Iranian provinces late Thursday and early Friday, including Khuzestan, Bushehr, Fars, Isfahan, Tehran, and Alborz.
• Residents reported blasts near military and energy sites, while air defences were activated in several areas.
• Regional attacks continued across Kuwait, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
• Iran reportedly drafted a protocol with Oman for Hormuz traffic.

TRUMP

• US President Trump said the largest bridge in Iran had come tumbling down and warned “much more to follow”.
• Trump said bridges are next, then electric power plants.
• Trump said it is time for Iran to make a deal before it is too late.
• Trump said the US military has not even started destroying what is left in Iran.
• Trump said the US has all the cards and Iran has none.

IRAN

• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that when it comes to defending the homeland, each and every Iranian will become a soldier of the country.
• Ghalibaf said in less than a week, around 7mln Iranians had already stepped up and declared they are ready to pick up arms and stand in defence of Iran.
• Iran’s military spokesperson said bigger, wider and more damaging attacks are coming soon.
• Iranian General Hatami said if the enemy tries to carry out ground operations, not a single person should survive.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran is not seeking to expand the scope of tension and war in the region.
• Pezeshkian said attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure shows an inability to achieve a sustainable solution.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said striking civilian structures, including unfinished bridges, will not compel Iranians to surrender.
• Araghchi warned about any UN Security Council resolution about Iran.
• Iranian officials said no positive results have yet been seen from mediators’ efforts to end the war.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

• UK PM Starmer’s government chaired a virtual summit with more than 40 countries on the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Sanctions on Iran were being considered if the Strait remains closed.
• The UN Security Council vote on the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly rescheduled to Saturday.
• Iran said it is to set tolls for ships passing through Hormuz.
• Iran reportedly drafted a protocol with Oman for Hormuz traffic.
• Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen based on US President Trump’s “absurd” display and that only Iran and Oman will decide the future of the strait.
• The IRGC said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is under the full control of Iranian naval forces.
• Iranian military spokesperson Shekarchi said the Strait of Hormuz will be closed “long-term” to the US and Israel.
• UAE Minister said the UAE is ready to participate in any measures to secure navigation in Hormuz.
• EU foreign policy chief Kallas said the EU must scale up the Aspides naval mission and cannot afford to lose another critical trade route.
• UK PM Starmer’s government said allied military planners will discuss the Strait of Hormuz next week.
• French Foreign Ministry spokesperson said G7 and GCC countries will hold a meeting next week to discuss the situation in Hormuz.
• The Philippines said Iran has assured the safe passage of vessels.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warned against UN involvement in the Strait of Hormuz conflict.

REGIONAL STRIKES

• Kuwait’s National Oil Company said the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery was hit in a drone attack, sparking a fire.
• Fire also erupted at Al-Ahmadi port refinery in Kuwait due to suicide drone attacks.
• Kuwaiti Army said air defences are currently intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks.
• Sirens sounded in Bahrain and Kuwait.
• Several explosions were reported in Bahrain, with reports US positions had been targeted.
• Severe explosions were reported in Abu Dhabi, and a missile was intercepted near KEZAD.
• Two drones targeted a US diplomatic facility near Baghdad airport.
• A drone hit the American base in Erbil, Iraq.
• Explosions were reported at a US logistics base near Baghdad airport and in American interests in Kuwait and Riyadh.
• Iran said it carried out a drone attack on US fighter jets at Al Azraq base in Jordan.
• Saudi Arabia said it intercepted five drones since Thursday.
• The IRGC on Thursday said it targeted the American army bases Ahmed Al-Jaber and Ali Al-Salem in Kuwait, and Al-Kharj in Saudi Arabia.
• The IRGC on Thursday said it targeted US-linked steel and aluminium facilities in Gulf states and warned that if Iranian industries are hit again, the next response will be more painful.
• Iranian forces also claimed attacks on American steel industries in Abu Dhabi and American aluminium industries in Bahrain.
• Iranian forces claimed to have targeted Oracle infrastructure in the UAE and data centres of Oracle in Dubai and Amazon in Bahrain, though Dubai later denied reports about Oracle’s data centre and called them fabricated.
• Yemeni forces said they carried out a third joint ballistic missile strike on Israeli targets.
• Israeli army said air defences intercepted a new wave of Iranian missiles.
• Reports described the Iranian attack as currently the widest since the start of the war so far.