[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 39: Tuesday deadline holds as Trump threatens four-hour infrastructure strike

MAIN POINTS:

US President Trump said talks are going well with Iran, but reiterated the Tuesday, 7 April 20:00 EDT deadline and said it will not be moved again.
US President Trump said the US has plans to decimate Iran’s bridges by Tuesday night and that every power plant will be out of business at midnight, with the decimation taking place over a four-hour period, though he said he does not want that to happen.
US President Trump said Iran can be taken out in one night and that the entire country could be taken out in one night if no deal is reached.
US War Secretary Hegseth said Monday would be the largest volume of strikes since day one of the Iran operation and that there will be even more on Tuesday.
Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump not to go for a ceasefire at the moment, while two Israeli sources and diplomats familiar with the talks said there is a very low chance of a US-Iran agreement.
Gulf and regional spillover continued, with Bahrain, Kuwait, Baghdad and Saudi Arabia all reporting attacks or alerts, while Saudi Arabia’s Jubail industrial hub was hit.

TRUMP

US President Trump said he thinks talks are going well with Iran and reiterated the Tuesday, 7 April 20:00 EDT deadline.
US President Trump said they have an active and willing participant on the other side.
US President Trump said they would like to be able to make a deal, but added that he cannot talk about a ceasefire and hopes he does not have to strike infrastructure.
US President Trump said on taking Iran’s oil that “to the victor belongs the spoils”.
US President Trump said he would rather that they charge tolls than Iran in the Strait and that they have a concept where the US will charge Hormuz tolls.
US President Trump said the US has plans to decimate Iran’s bridges by Tuesday night.
US President Trump threatened that every power plant will be out of business at midnight and that the decimation would happen over a four-hour period, but added they do not want that to happen and it would take 100 years to rebuild.
US President Trump said Iran can be taken out in one night, which could occur Tuesday night, and that the entire country could be taken out in one night.
US President Trump reiterated that Iran has until Tuesday night to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or he would destroy all of Iran’s bridges and power plants.
US President Trump said the deadline will not be moved again and that they have not signed any ceasefire.
When asked whether striking Iran’s infrastructure would be a war crime, US President Trump said no because “they are animals”.
US President Trump added that Iran would like a ceasefire because they are getting obliterated, that they have given Iran chances, and that they will see how Iran behaves. (Trump)

NEGOTIATIONS

US VP Vance is on standby for Iran negotiations.
Negotiations are being led by Witkoff and Kushner, but Vance could be tagged in if there is a direct meeting with Iranian officials.
US War Secretary Hegseth said Monday would be the largest volume of strikes since day one of the Iran operation and there will be even more on Tuesday.
US military is making preparations for potential strikes on energy targets in Iran.
A US official said there are many energy targets in Iran with a military nexus.
A US official said an energy source could be considered a legitimate military target if it has been used for military purposes, for instance if it is being used to provide fuel for mobile rocket launchers.

ISRAEL

Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire at the moment and expressed concern about the risks of such a move.
US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu that if Iran agrees to the US demands a ceasefire could happen.
US President Trump stressed he will not give up on his demand that Iran hand over all of its enriched uranium and agree not to resume enrichment.
Two Israeli sources and diplomats familiar with the details of the talks said there is a very low chance of an agreement between Iran and the US.
Israel approved an updated list of energy and infrastructure targets in Iran as a contingency if diplomacy fails.

IRAN

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf’s adviser Mohammadi said it is US President Trump who has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran or his allies will return to the Stone Age.
Mohammadi added that they will not back down.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, in a call with his Qatari counterpart, said Iran is interested in developing ties and that the current situation is strictly due to US-Israeli aggression.
Iran’s top joint military command said US President Trump’s threats are “delusional” and have no effect on operations against the US and Israel.
Iran’s atomic agency said heavy bombs will not halt nuclear tech progress.
Iran said non-hostile countries can coordinate access to the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran rejected a US proposal brokered by Pakistan for an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of its blockade of Hormuz, followed by talks on a broader peace settlement within 15 to 20 days.

GULF

Explosions were heard in Bahrain, followed by reports of a large barrage of missiles headed for Bahrain, with air raid sirens and alerts in multiple areas.
US interests and facilities were targeted by airstrikes in Kuwait.
A drone strike hit the US Victoria base in Baghdad.
A missile attack also targeted US interests in Saudi Arabia.
Missiles hit Saudi Arabia’s Jubail, the largest industrial hub in the Middle East, where large petrochemical and energy facilities are located.
Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry said it intercepted several ballistic missiles targeting its eastern region, and missile debris fell near energy facilities while damage assessment was underway.
US data centres of Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle and Equinix in the UAE are now identified as potential targets for Iran’s counter-response in the region.