[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 52: Mixed reporting on US-Iran negotiations ahead of ceasefire expiry

OVERVIEW

• US President Trump said US Marines seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship TOUSKA after it tried to get past the US naval blockade, while Iran said the incident was an act of armed piracy and warned it would soon retaliate.
• Fresh US-Iran talks remain uncertain despite Trump saying VP JD Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner will head to Islamabad on Monday evening, with multiple Iranian reports saying Tehran has not agreed to a second round, whilst some suggested a delegation will arrive in Pakistan.
• Iran said the Strait of Hormuz remains under its control and will not reopen as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports stays in place.
• Trump renewed his threat to strike Iran’s power plants and bridges if there is no deal, while also warning he may not extend the ceasefire beyond Wednesday.
• NOTE: The two-week ceasefire officially began at 01:00 BST on 8 April 2026 (20:00 ET on 7 April) and is scheduled to expire at 01:00 BST on 22 April 2026 (20:00 ET on 21 April).

HORMUZ

• Iran on Saturday reversed the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and said the waterway had returned to “strict control” after accusing the US of not meeting its obligations and refusing to lift the blockade on Iranian ports.
• At least three attacks on commercial ships were reported after the re-closure on Saturday, including Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker and an attack on a cargo vessel near the strait that damaged containers on board.
• Trump said on Saturday that Iran got “a little cute” by closing the strait again, but added there were still “very good conversations” going on.
• Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free and that either there is a free oil market for all or everyone risks bearing enormous costs.
• Iran’s Security Council said it is determined to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz until the war ends and that Iran will not reopen the strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
• It was separately reported that an Iranian oil tanker broke through the US blockade and entered Iranian waters, according to CCTV.

US

• Trump on Sunday said an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, TOUSKA, tried to get past the US naval blockade, but USS SPRUANCE intercepted it in the Gulf of Oman and stopped it by blowing a hole in the engine room after the crew refused warnings.
• Trump on Sunday said, “Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz – A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!”
• Trump said the blockade on Iranian ports will remain in place and that maybe he will not extend the ceasefire if there is no deal by Wednesday.
• Trump said on Friday that the US will not release frozen Iranian funds, while claiming most main points are finalised and that a deal to end the war is mostly complete.
• A senior US official said the Iran war could resume in the coming days if there is no breakthrough soon, and that the situation is at a critical point.
• Trump said if Iran does not agree to no nuclear weapons, there will be no deal.
• Trump said the US is offering a very fair and reasonable deal, but warned that if Iran does not take it, the US is going to knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran.
• Trump also said the US has been called by the other side, which wants to make a deal very badly, with the sticking point in talks remaining nuclear issues.
• The UAE opened talks with the US about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war deepens, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
• It was also reported that the UAE told Washington it will be forced to sell oil in yuan if it is not supplied with enough dollars.

IRAN

• Iran’s Supreme Leader said Iran’s navy is ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on its enemies.
• Iran’s Security Council said it is reviewing proposals made by the US in recent days.
• An Iranian senior official denied Trump’s claim that Iran agreed to halt uranium enrichment indefinitely and said Iran will not accept being treated as an exception to international law.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Friday said Araghchi’s earlier post was within the framework of the 10 April ceasefire agreement and that there is no new understanding.
• Iranian Harat Khatam Al-Anbiya Central HQ spokesperson said the US attack on the Iranian commercial ship violated the ceasefire and warned Iran will soon respond.
• An Iranian senior official said significant gaps remained with the US, especially on nuclear matters.
• An Iranian press said Tehran has not agreed to fresh talks and that a second round is not yet confirmed.

US-IRAN TALKS

• Trump said VP Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner will head to Islamabad for fresh talks with Iran and arrive on Monday evening, according to a White House official.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said there will be no further in-person peace talks with the US until Washington changes its “maximalist” demands, while adding Iran would not hand over its enriched uranium to the US.
• IRNA reported that Tehran has not agreed to participate in a second round of talks.
• Iranian sources told CNN that the Iranian delegation is expected to arrive in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to Al Hadath.
• Iran has yet to agree to another round of talks with the US, according to the Iranian press, while Iranian state media later said Tehran was not currently planning to take part in new talks with the US.
• Pakistani media sources said gaps between the US and Iran have narrowed in recent days, according to Al Hadath.
• Al-Mayadeen, citing an envoy to Islamabad, said there were no indications so far that a new negotiation session would be held between America and Iran in the coming hours.
• An Iranian senior official said significant differences remained between Iran and the US, including on nuclear issues, and that serious talks are required.
• An Iranian source said Tehran believes it is facing trickery by the adversary and is on the brink of a fresh wave of escalation, according to Al Jazeera.
• Pakistani media also reported that the US and Iran have narrowed gaps in recent days.

KEY STICKING POINTS IN TALKS

• Major disagreements remain over uranium enrichment, the future of Iran’s enriched stockpile, and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reports said the US wants a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment, transfer of enriched uranium to the US, and full IAEA-supervised civilian facilities.
• Iran rejects a 20-year halt but is open to temporary limits on high-level enrichment.
• Iran is willing to transfer enriched uranium to China or Russia as a “deposit,” not to the US.
• Iran accepts stronger international oversight and restructuring of nuclear facilities.
• Iran wants to impose transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz to fund post-war reconstruction.
• The US wants a return to pre-28 February conditions in the strait.
• Iran argues conditions have changed due to the US use of the Strait during the war.
• Reports said the US has not rejected transit fees and is discussing a joint management mechanism with Iran.
• One proposal reportedly includes routing revenues through a US-controlled fund for civilian purposes.
• Iran says the main obstacle is the US ignoring past agreements during negotiations.

LEBANON / ISRAEL

• IDF confirmed it carried out the first strikes against Hezbollah since the ceasefire, saying the strikes targeted Hezbollah operatives who violated ceasefire understandings.
• Hezbollah claims it retains the right to respond to Israeli violations and intends to exercise that right.
• Hezbollah will not disarm unless Lebanon’s situation fundamentally changes and Israeli aggression is no longer a threat.

MARKETS

• Crude futures surged at the reopen, WTI Jun +6.0% at USD 87.50/bbl, Brent +5.4% at USD 95.25/bbl.
• Spot gold gapped lower beneath USD 4,800/oz as oil prices rose.
• APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region shrugged off the escalatory geopolitical headlines.
• US equity futures (ES -0.6%) declined at the reopen as the escalation in Hormuz over the weekend spooked sentiment, but have since pared around half of the initial losses as asset classes pared the early extremes and Asia-Pac shrugged off the geopolitical headlines.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.1% on Friday.
• DXY (+0.1%) mildly strengthened amid firmer oil prices and the initial risk-off mood due to the geopolitical escalation over the weekend.
• 10yr UST futures retreated as a resurgence in oil prices stoked inflationary pressures.
• Bitcoin declined over the weekend in reaction to the updates.