[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 55: Trump denies 3-5 day timeline; Hormuz tensions persist

OVERVIEW

• US President Trump said Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is expected to remain part of Iran talks and said the reported 3-5 day ceasefire is not true, according to Fox.
• White House Press Secretary said Trump has not set a firm deadline for the Iran proposal, added the 3-5 day ceasefire timeline is not true, and said Trump will dictate the ceasefire timeline.
• Israeli media cited sources saying Washington wants to reach understandings with Iran by Sunday, not just launch negotiations, while N12 reported Trump’s deadline for the Iranians was this coming Sunday.
• Report via Israeli press Hayom, citing sources familiar with Trump administration moves, said the “next stages have already been set” and that after the ceasefire ends within a few days, an overwhelming military strike is expected, followed by several days of military operations before they conclude.

CEASEFIRE

• US President Trump said the reported 3-5 day ceasefire is not true and expects Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi to remain part of Iran talks, according to Fox.
• White House Press Secretary said Trump has not set a firm deadline for Iran’s proposal and that Trump himself will dictate the ceasefire timeline.
• Trump posted that “the eight women protestors who were going to be executed tonight in Iran will no longer be killed” and thanked Iran and its leaders for respecting his request.
• It was later reported that Iran rejected Trump’s claim of halting the women’s executions, according to Iran State News Mizan.
• The third US aircraft carrier, USS Bush, is arriving in the Middle East after a detour around the southern tip of Africa in the next 3-5 days, according to Fox’s Jen Griffin.
• US Senate voted 46-51 against limiting Trump’s Iran war powers, rejecting the fifth attempt to do so.
• NYT reported some Republicans have signalled that a key statutory deadline in the coming weeks could become an inflection point at which they will expect Trump either to wind down the conflict or seek congressional approval to continue it.
• Israel's Hayom, citing sources familiar with Trump administration moves said “the next stages have already been set”.
• According to the report, the ceasefire Trump extended will end within a few days.
• After that, an overwhelming military strike is expected to go ahead with even greater force than previous US strikes on Iran.
• The report added that the attack would continue for several days, after which military operations against Iran would come to an end.

HORMUZ

• US Pentagon informed Congress it could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, and any such operation is unlikely until the US-Iran war ends, according to WaPo.
• US military intercepted at least three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters and redirected them, according to shipping and security sources.
• Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz citing violations and dangerous navigation, according to SNN.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a direct result of US violations.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said a complete ceasefire only makes sense if it is not violated by a naval blockade and hostage-taking of the world economy, and added reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not possible with a blatant ceasefire violation.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has welcomed dialogue and continues to do so, but that breaches of commitments, the blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations.
• British military divers are preparing to conduct mine-clearing operations if needed in the Strait of Hormuz, according to POLITICO citing the UK MoD.

IRAN

• Iran maintains more military capability than the White House or Pentagon publicly admitted, with about half of its ballistic missile stockpile and associated launch systems still intact as of the start of the ceasefire in early April, according to CBS citing multiple US officials.
• Iranian Chairman of National Security Committee Ebrahim Azizi said Iran will not leave the battlefield until the aggressor is severely punished and finally repents, and added Iran has no problem entering other fields.
• Iranian politician Azizi said the ceasefire period is an opportunity to stock up, while Iran will continue to adhere to a series of ethical principles of war, according to SNN.
• Iranian-American academic and political analyst Marani, said to be closely linked to the Iranian government, said if Iran’s infrastructure is attacked there will be a lot of heat in the region and people should leave Gulf countries if Trump carries out his threat to bomb critical infrastructure.
• Iranian opposition sources said air defences were activated in Iran last night against unmanned aerial vehicles.
• Fars News posted an animation on Iran’s readiness to target regional energy infrastructure if America makes a mistake.

DIPLOMACY

• Pakistani official said they remain optimistic about the Islamabad negotiations and hope for the best.
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority, cited by Al Araby, reported Washington wants to reach understandings with Iran by Sunday, not merely start negotiations.
• N12 reported Trump’s deadline for the Iranians was this coming Sunday.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said they are prepared for all scenarios, both defensively and offensively.
• Israel’s Foreign Minister said there are no major differences with Lebanon, that disputes over the border line are not significant and can be resolved, and that normalisation and peace with Lebanon will be discussed after resolving the Hezbollah issue.
• Israel-Lebanon talks in the US are slated for Thursday at 16:00EDT/21:00BST.
• Lebanon is to request a one-month ceasefire extension in Washington talks, according to NNA.
• Israeli forces targeted the Red Cross and prevented it from searching for journalist Amal Khalil, according to Al Jazeera citing a Lebanese official.
• Lebanon’s PM later said Israel’s targeting of journalists and obstruction of relief efforts constitute war crimes.
• Hezbollah said it targeted a gathering of Israeli enemy soldiers in the town of Qantara in southern Lebanon with a drone strike in response to ceasefire violations.
• Five Palestinians were reportedly killed in an Israeli strike on Gaza.