[ANALYSIS] Iranian War: Where we stand on Day 13

OVERVIEW

• Brent briefly rose back above USD 100/bbl despite the IEA’s 400mln-barrel coordinated reserve release.
• On Wednesday, an Iranian military spokesperson issued a formal warning to the US and the international community to "get ready" for oil to be USD 200/bbl.
• On Wednesday, two foreign oil tankers carrying Iraqi fuel were hit in Iraqi waters, another container ship was struck off the UAE, and fuel facilities were hit in Bahrain and Oman; Iraq said oil port operations were completely halted after the tanker attacks, while commercial ports continued operating.
• Gulf states again came under Iranian missile and drone pressure, with attacks or interceptions reported in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
• Iran said reciprocal hits had ended and continuous strikes would follow
• Israel said it launched a wide-scale wave of strikes on Tehran and Beirut, while on Wednesday, Iran and Hezbollah carried out their first coordinated strike on northern Israel since the war began.

MILITARY / SECURITY

Trump Commentary

• Said the US military is hitting Iran very hard and that operations have turned out to be easier than expected.
• Said it will be “more of the same” until the operation is finished, and that the US must finish the job in Iran.
• Said the US had knocked out Iran’s navy and mine-laying capabilities.
• Said there is practically nothing left to target in Iran.
• Said companies should continue using the Strait of Hormuz and that the US is looking closely at the situation there.
• Said the US also has to deal with Hezbollah regarding Lebanon.
• Said the war is having a tremendous impact on the world.
• Said the US could take apart Iran’s electricity capacity within an hour, though ideally it would not do that.

Mines / maritime threat

• US officials said Iran laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• One estimate put the number at around 10. Another report said fewer than 10.
• Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said there was no confirmed evidence of mines in the strait.
• US Central Command said it struck 16 Iranian mine-laying boats near the strait.
• Trump also referred to 28 mine ships and separately said 54 ships were knocked out in two days.
• The US warned civilians to immediately avoid Iranian ports along the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran warned that if its ports are threatened, other ports in the region become legitimate targets.
• Iran said it would not allow a single litre of oil to pass through Hormuz for the benefit of the US and its allies.

Israel / Iran / Lebanon

• Israel said it launched a wide-scale wave of strikes in Tehran.
• Israel also launched large-scale strikes on Beirut and Hezbollah infrastructure.
• A senior Israeli defence official said Iran and Hezbollah carried out a joint missile attack on northern Israel. The IRGC later confirmed the coordinated strike.
• The same Israeli official said the next 24 hours would largely determine the course of the Lebanon battle.
• Hezbollah was reported to have fired around 100 rockets into northern Israel in coordination with Iran.
• The IRGC said it carried out its 40th wave using Qadr, Imad, Khyber Shaken and Fatah missiles at Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa.
• Alerts and interceptions were reported around Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa Bay, the occupied Golan Heights and northern Israel.

Wider regional attacks/proxies

• Iranian state-affiliated news agency Defa Press said Yemeni resistance and other groups are prepared to join the battle in the coming days. The same report said that raises the risk of Bab-al-Mandab disruption and Suez Canal transit disruption.
• A missile hit an Italian base in Erbil; no casualties were reported.
• Saraya Awliya al-Dam claimed seven attacks on US bases in Iraq.
• An air raid on a PMF site in al-Qaim reportedly killed at least 10 people.
• An Iran-linked hacking group claimed a retaliatory cyberattack on Stryker.

SHIPPING / ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Iraqi waters 

• Two foreign oil tankers carrying Iraqi fuel were hit by explosive-laden boats in Iraqi waters and both vessels caught fire.
• At least one crew member was reported killed, while Iraq rescued 38 crew members.
• Iraq said oil terminal operations were completely suspended after the attacks, while commercial ports continued operating normally.
• Iraq’s oil ministry called for the protection of maritime routes.
• One report said Iraqi oil production had fallen from 3.3mln bpd to less than 1mln bpd.

Strait of Hormuz

• A Thai-flagged vessel, Mayuree Naree, was struck near Oman, causing an engine-room fire; three crew were reported missing and believed trapped, while others were evacuated and rescued.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they fired at the vessel because it ignored warnings, while Thailand summoned the Iranian ambassador.
• Another container ship was struck by an unknown projectile around 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali, causing a small fire; the crew were safe.
• Multiple other ship strikes were reported in or near the strait, with shipping described as all but stopped or close to a standstill.
• An Iranian source denied allowing Indian-flagged tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

UAE / Bahrain / Oman / Saudi / Kuwait / Qatar

• UAE air defences responded to new missile and drone attacks, while a drone hit a building in Dubai Creek Harbour, causing a minor fire, and a separate drone incident near Dubai airport reportedly injured four people.
• Bahrain said Iran attacked fuel tanks in Muharraq, causing a major fire, with residents in affected areas told to stay indoors due to smoke.
• Drones struck fuel storage tanks at Oman’s Salalah port, causing major fires; Maersk halted operations at the port, and Oman was reportedly evacuating ships from Mina Al-Fahal as a precaution.
• Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones heading toward the Shaybah oil field and also intercepted drones and missiles near Riyadh and elsewhere.
• Kuwait reported drone interceptions and said a drone hit a residential building, wounding two people.
• Qatar residents reportedly received mobile alerts for a missile threat, while Qatari forces reportedly intercepted missile attacks.

IEA reserves release 

• The IEA’s 32 member countries agreed to make 400mln barrels available to the market, the largest coordinated release in its history.
• The US said it would release 172mln barrels from the SPR.
• The US said the release would begin next week and take roughly 120 days for delivery.
• The UK said it would release 13.5mln barrels.
• Sources suggested Italy will contribute 9mln barrels to the strategic oil reserve release

POLITICAL / DIPLOMATIC

• Iranian President Pezeshkian outlined three "pillars" for ending the conflict: 1) recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights. 2) payment of reparations, 3) firm international guarantees against future aggression.
• Pezeshkian also said Iran has no intention of conflict with neighbours and only targets bases used to attack Iran.
• Oman, Egypt and Turkey were said to be trying to open dialogue between Washington and Tehran.
• French President Macron on Wednesday hosted a G7 video conference on the war and its economic fallout, including the IEA release.
• Macron said the oil-market situation did not justify lifting sanctions on Russia.
• Switzerland and Germany temporarily closed their embassies in Tehran.
• Romania is reportedly poised to approve the US use of a Black Sea airbase for Iran operations.

CASUALTIES / IMPACT

• US service member deaths are cited at seven.
• The Pentagon is said to have estimated that the first six days of the war cost more than USD 11.3bln.
• Lebanon’s total death toll since 28 February was cited at 634.
• Iran’s toll is cited at at least 1,255 killed and more than 12,000 injured in one report.

TRAVEL IMPACT

• The conflict is said to be costing at least USD 600mln per day in international visitor spending across the Middle East travel and tourism.
• Major hubs, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain, are cited as heavily disrupted.

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

• The FBI reportedly warned California police departments that Iran wanted to retaliate with drones against the West Coast, though other US law enforcement sources later said the intelligence lacked credibility.
• Reports on Wednesday said newly appointed Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in the strikes that killed his father, though later comments said he was safe.
• Citibank closed all but one UAE branch and evacuated offices in Dubai; other banks also took precautionary measures in the Gulf.