[ANALYSIS] The Iranian War enters Day 17: What to know

OVERVIEW

• The Strait of Hormuz remained the central issue, with Washington pushing for a naval coalition, Tehran threatening further disruption, and several countries weighing whether or how to help reopen the waterway.
• Trump said US strikes wiped out every military target on Kharg Island but left the oil infrastructure intact for now, while warning he could reconsider that if Iran interferes with safe passage through Hormuz.
• Trump also said the US had destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability and that many countries would send warships to keep Hormuz open and safe, though he later said some countries would rather not get involved.
• Iran said it has not asked the US for a ceasefire, while signalling some countries have approached Tehran for safe passage through Hormuz.
• Israel said it would continue the war with the US until its objectives are achieved and that it still has thousands of targets left in Iran.
• The UAE again came under attack, with Dubai airport temporarily suspending flights after a drone-related fire and Fujairah port hit, forcing suspension of oil loading.
• Oil remained above USD 100/bbl, keeping inflation and rate concerns in focus.

US / TRUMP / HORMUZ

• Trump said he ordered a strike that wiped out every military target on Kharg Island, where Iran exports nearly all of its oil, but left the oil infrastructure intact.
• Trump said he would reconsider hitting that oil infrastructure if Iran interferes with safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump said he is hearing Iran’s new supreme leader may be dead.
• Trump said it is not clear whether Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump said he is not ready to make a deal with Iran because the terms are not good enough.
• Trump said the recent Kharg strikes demolished most of the island and that the US may hit it a few more times “just for fun”.
• Trump posted that the US has destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability.
• Trump said many countries will send warships to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open and safe.
• Trump said the US has had strong results in Iran.
• Trump said he does not believe Iran is ready to negotiate yet, but will be at some point.
• Trump said the US is talking to other countries about policing Hormuz, but cannot yet say which countries will help.
• Trump said some countries would rather not get involved.
• Trump called on NATO to help and said China should help on Hormuz.
• Trump warned NATO faces a very bad future if US allies fail to assist in reopening Hormuz.
• Trump said he expected China to help unblock Hormuz before his Beijing trip and may delay that trip, according to reports.
• Reports said Trump is seeking a Hormuz coalition and is weighing the seizure of Kharg Island if tankers remain bottled up, an option that would require US boots on the ground.
• Reports said the US administration plans as soon as this week to announce a coalition to escort ships through Hormuz, though it is still debating whether such operations would begin before or after hostilities end.
• Reports also said the administration rebuffed regional attempts to begin ceasefire talks.
• White House adviser Hassett said the Pentagon sees the war lasting four to six weeks, though the final decision rests with Trump.

IRAN / REGIONAL RESPONSE

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran has not asked the US for a ceasefire.
• Araghchi also said some countries have approached Iran about safe passage through Hormuz.
• Iran’s government rejected any possibility of a ceasefire until US and Israeli strikes end.
• The IRGC said Iran will target branches of US banks in the Gulf in retaliation for attacks on Iranian banks.
• The IRGC also threatened to attack the facilities of US companies in the region if Iranian energy infrastructure is attacked.
• Iran’s media operations centre warned residents in specific areas of Dubai and Doha of possible attacks.
• It said US military personnel are hiding in locations in Doha and Dubai and urged residents to evacuate immediately.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israel’s foreign minister said Israel and the US share the determination to continue the war until their goals are achieved.
• Israel’s military said it still has thousands of targets left to hit in Iran.
• Israel widened strikes to western and central Iran.
• Israel said half of Iran’s missiles fired at Israel are cluster warheads, increasing the radius of potential damage and casualties.
• Reports later said Israel launched a new limited ground operations in southern Lebanon.
• Lebanon’s health ministry death toll since 2 March was cited at 850 killed and more than 2,100 wounded.

HORMUZ / INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE

• Reports said EU foreign ministers were meeting in Brussels to discuss extending the Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz.
• India’s foreign minister said direct discussions with Iran were proving the most effective way to resume shipping through Hormuz.
• Reports said Trump demanded roughly seven countries help secure the strait.
• Reports also said the UK and others were reluctant to commit warships.
• Starmer and Trump discussed the importance of reopening Hormuz to end disruption to global shipping.
• Reports said Starmer is considering sending thousands of interceptor drones to the Middle East.
• Separate UK discussion included mine-hunting or autonomous mine-hunting capabilities rather than large naval deployment.
• Germany is reported to be sceptical about extending the EU naval mission to Hormuz.
• France said it would not send warships to the strait.
• Trump said many countries would help, but some would rather not get involved.
• China was repeatedly mentioned by Trump as a country that should help reopen the strait.

GULF / INFRASTRUCTURE / AVIATION

• Dubai temporarily suspended flights at Dubai International Airport after a drone-related incident caused a fire at a fuel tank.
• Flights were later set to resume gradually from 10am local time.
• Several UK and Europe-originating flights turned around mid-flight.
• Reports said this was the third such incident at Dubai airport since the war began.
• The UAE reported further missile and drone attacks, with air defences and fighter jets intercepting threats.
• Fujairah port was hit and damage was being assessed, according to reports.
• Oil loading at Fujairah was suspended after the strike, according to reports.
• Saudi state television reported 34 drones were intercepted within an hour in the kingdom’s eastern region.
• Separate reporting said two drones were intercepted over Saudi Arabia’s eastern province.
• The UAE said a Jordanian national was slightly injured after debris from a drone interception over Fujairah.
• Reports said UAE ports had been threatened by Iran as legitimate military targets if used by the US.
• US citizens in Iraq were told to leave immediately after attacks targeting US nationals.
• Reports said rockets hit Baghdad airport and surrounding areas, injuring five.
• Reports also said a drone hit a storage shelter for Italian drones at a Kuwait base hosting US and Italian forces, destroying the drones.
• A drone also struck an Iraqi refinery in Erbil, halting operations pending damage assessment.

OTHER DAY-17 DEVELOPMENTS

• Reports said Iran detained 18 people accused of sending information to the US and Israel.
• Separate reporting said the IRGC detained 33 individuals accused of gathering intelligence on military sites.
• Iran’s foreign minister said the new supreme leader is alive and in good health.
• Trump said he is hearing the new supreme leader may be dead.
• Netanyahu posted a video to dispel rumours of his death.
• Iran fired missile barrages toward Israel, with damage at multiple sites in central Israel and the Tel Aviv area.
• Reported cumulative deaths included around 1,300 in Iran, 850 in Lebanon, 13 US troops, 12 in Israel, six in the UAE, one in Bahrain and one in Kuwait.