Bank of Italy updates economic outlook released on 3rd April: CPI forecasts raised across the board
The Bank of Italy has revised its economic outlook, lowering GDP growth forecasts while significantly raising inflation expectations across the board.
Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs says "[US] should stop these threats - the effects of which will not be limited to Iran.", Tasnim reports
Saudi Arabia sets May Arab Light crude oil OSP to Asia at USD 19.50/bbl premium vs Oman/Dubai average (vs Bloomberg exp. of ~USD 40/bbl); a record premium, Bloomberg reports
Bank of Italy updates economic outlook released on 3rd April: CPI forecasts raised across the board
An explosion was heard in Kuwait, SNN reports
The Iranian regime believes it can continue the fighting and end the war on better terms, according to an Arab diplomat involved in the contacts between Iran and the US, cited by Kann News
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Growth:
- Cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.6%)
- Cuts 2027 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.2%)
- Maintains 2028 GDP growth forecast at 0.8%
Inflation:
- Raises 2026 CPI to 2.6% (prev. 1.4%)
- Raises 2027 CPI to 1.8% (prev. 1.6%)
- Raises 2028 CPI to 1.9% (prev. 1.6%)
This divergence suggests potential pressures on monetary policy, indicating that the central bank may need to address rising inflation despite sluggish growth. Such dynamics could influence market sentiment and positioning, particularly in fixed income and currency markets.
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