NY Fed SCE (Aug): Inflation expectations: One-year 3.6% (prev. 3.6%), 3-year 3.2% (prev. 3.3%), 5-year 3% (prev. 3%).

Newsquawk Staff · 8 Sept 2026, 15:20 UTC

Gas price growth expectations increased again in August, rising by 1.7 ppt to 4.6%.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 ppt to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 ppt to 45.4%.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.4 ppt to 13.8%, its lowest reading since February 2026.
The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next twelve months increased by 0.9 ppt to 19.5%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4%.

Sources

newyorkfed.org

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RBA's Assistant Governor Hunter said the board is concerned about inflation and has low tolerance, adding the board may have to raise rates if there is a sense inflation will be stronger.

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Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance
EUR/SEK+0.3%
Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate
EUR/NOK+0.6%
Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%

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