BCB Focus Market Survey: 2026 Selic Rate 13.75% (prev. 14.00%), 2027 Selic Rate 12% (prev. 12%)

The Focus survey is the BCB's weekly poll of economists and functions as the reference consensus for Brazilian rate expectations, so a downward revision to the 2026 Selic median while the 2027 median holds signals the market is bringing forward or deepening the expected easing cycle rather than shifting the terminal level. That distinction matters for the curve: front-end DI rates and the belly respond to timing revisions, while the long end anchors on the terminal rate, which here is unchanged. In past cycles of this kind, sequential weekly trims to the near-year median have tended to precede and then track actual Copom easing, with the survey converging toward the bank's own signalling rather than leading it. The relevant follow-ons are the next Copom communications and minutes, the IPCA inflation prints that Brazilian pricing is unusually sensitive to, and whether the FX desk reads the lower path as compression of the carry premium that has historically supported the real. As a survey rather than a decision, the print moves expectations at the margin and its weight lies in the direction of the weekly trend, not any single revision.