BoC holds rates at 2.25% as expected; it is looking through war's immediate impact on inflation, but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation

Outlook

• We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.
• Governing Council is looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.
• As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Commentary

• The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty.
• As expected, so far there is little evidence that oil prices have fed through more broadly to goods and services prices, but this warrants close attention in the months ahead.
• Near-term inflation expectations have moved up with higher gasoline prices and still-elevated food price inflation, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.

Projections: The Bank’s April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to USD 75 per barrel by mid 2027. 

• Projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028 as growth in exports and business investment resumes along a lower trajectory.
• While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast.
• Mainains neutral rate estimate of 2.25-3.25%.
• Projections for inflation over the next year are revised up because of the jump in energy prices.CPI inflation will likely rise further in April to about 3%
• Based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, inflation is forecast to come down to the 2% target early next year and remain around 2% over the projection horizon.