BoC leaves rates on hold at 2.25%, as expected; removes language that current policy rate remains appropriate

  • Removes language that "Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate"
  • “Risks to growth look tilted to the downside.”
  • “Inflation risks have gone up due to higher energy prices.”
  • “We continue to expect the Canadian economy to grow modestly as it adjusts to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, but recent data suggest that near-term economic growth will be weaker than anticipated in January.”
  • “The labour market remains soft.”
  • Employment gains in the fourth quarter of 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February.
  • “It’s too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on growth in Canada.”
  • “The war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy.”
  • “The breadth and duration of the conflict, and hence its economic impacts, are highly uncertain.”
  • “Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, global oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply, and this will boost global inflation in the near-term.”
  • Transportation bottlenecks stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz could impact the supply of other commodities, such as fertilizer.
  • “The sharp increase in global energy prices has led to increases in gasoline prices, and this will push up total inflation in the coming months.”
  • “We will continue to assess the impact of US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, and how the Canadian economy is adjusting.”
  • “We are also monitoring the unfolding conflict in the Middle East closely and assessing its impact on growth and inflation.”
  • “As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed.”
Context

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has kept rates steady at 2.25%, aligning with expectations. However, the removal of language suggesting the current policy rate is appropriate highlights a shift towards a more cautious outlook, particularly given the downside risks to growth and rising inflation driven by higher energy prices. This could indicate a potential for future rate adjustments depending on evolving economic conditions, especially in light of geopolitical tensions affecting global energy markets.

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