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BoC Q4 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations: Concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers

The latest BoC Q4 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations signals ongoing consumer concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty, primarily driven by the trade conflict.

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BoC Q4 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations: Concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers

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  • Consumers perceived a higher likelihood of missing a debt payment and a slightly greater chance of losing their job. In this context, consumers reported weaker spending plans. Still, they perceive a greater chance than last quarter of finding a job or voluntarily leaving their job.
  • Expectations for near‑term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long‑term inflation eased below pre‑pandemic levels.
  • Tariffs are still the most frequently cited driver of inflation, although a little less so than last quarter.
  • Overall, the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator declined slightly and remains subdued in the fourth quarter.
  • A modest deterioration in financial health and household spending intentions contributed to this drop, while labour market conditions improved slightly from low levels.
Context

With inflation expectations remaining elevated and spending plans weakened, this data highlights the potential for subdued economic growth, which could influence central bank policy and market sentiment going forward.

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