US EQUITY OPEN: US indices reverse initial CPI losses
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Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Strait of Hormuz security cannot be guaranteed while US aggression and the naval blockade continue, Tehran Times reports
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US EQUITY OPEN: US indices reverse initial CPI losses
US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Preliminary (Sep) 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%)
US Michigan Inflation Expectations Preliminary (Sep) 4.6% (Prev. 4%)
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OPEN: US indices opened in the green, reversing all the weakness seen in wake of the hotter than expected core CPI M/M metric, which has lifted the probability of a Fed 25bps rate hike next week to 86% from 70% pre-data. In the initial aftermath of the data set, Treasuries, spot gold, and US equity futures all saw notable pressure, while the Dollar soared, but the move have since pared, and more. The crude complex is lower by c. USD 3/bbl, reversing some of Thursday's strong gains, as FT reported that Gulf Foreign Ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in an effort by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined. All sectors are in the green, as Communications and Tech sit atop of the breakdown, with the latter buoyed by a stellar Oracle earnings report. Ahead, UoM prelim for September was just released with the calendar thereafter pretty quiet as traders await the aforementioned FOMC confab next week.
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Oracle (ORCL): Earnings & FY guidance beat expectations
- Adobe (ADBE): Q4 revenue outlook falls slightly short of forecasts
- ACV Auctions (ACVA): Copart (CPRT) to acquire ACV for $10.5/shr
- Kroger (KR): Lowered FY26 identical sales growth outlook excluding fuel
- RH (RH): EPS & rev. beat
- Celsius (CELH): CEO bought 18k shares on Sept 10 for $493.8K
- GameStop (GME): CEO Ryan Cohen bought 1mln shares on Sept 10 for $20.4M
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
- NuScale (SMR): Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
Context
The intraday sequence here is a familiar one around CPI surprises: an initial rates-led shock, bearish futures, firmer dollar, weaker gold and Treasuries, followed by a retrace once positioning rather than fresh information is doing the work. The pattern that has historically mattered is the split between the core M/M detail, which carries most of the signal, and headline or mixed components, which the market tends to fade; a hot core print with equities finishing higher usually indicates the hiking probability was already largely priced or that the move was crowded, not that the data turned benign. The transmission channel is the front of the curve: a shift in near-term Fed pricing lifts real yields and the dollar first, and the durability of the equity recovery tends to hinge on whether breakevens and the two-year hold the new level or drift back. The separate driver worth isolating is crude, where the move is a geopolitical premium unwind tied to Hormuz diplomacy rather than the macro tape, and the two should not be conflated in reading risk appetite. Single-stock dispersion (Oracle strength, software guidance misses) is doing more for the sector mix than the index level suggests. The calendar now runs through the FOMC, where the question precedent poses is whether the committee validates the front-end repricing or pushes back on it.
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