BofA Flow Show (w/e 30th September): USD 18.8bln to bonds, 15.8bln to stocks, 0.9bln to crypto, 0.7bln to gold, 118.0bln from cash on quarter-end; Bull and Bear indicator 8.8 (prev. 9.3)

This is a flow-based sentiment read rather than a survey, and the Flow Show's own framing has always been contrarian: a Bull and Bear reading in the high single digits has historically sat in the zone the authors themselves flag as a sell-signal threshold, so a print of 8.8 easing off a higher prior reads as extreme positioning moderating rather than fresh caution. The quarter-end cash outflow is the number to discount most heavily; redemptions from cash into risk and duration around quarter turns have repeatedly reflected rebalancing and seasonal mechanics rather than a clean change in investor conviction, and the tell is whether the rotation persists into the following week's data. The composition is the more durable signal: simultaneous record or multi-month inflows into long-dated bonds, municipals, and defensives alongside continued equity and tech buying is the classic late-cycle pattern of investors adding duration and barbelling risk rather than de-risking outright. Muni inflows of this scale tend to track rate expectations and tax-driven demand, so their persistence is a proxy for how the buyer base is reading the front end. The follow-ons that matter are next week's print for confirmation that the cash move was seasonal, and whether the Bull and Bear's reversal from extreme levels follows the past pattern in which such roll-overs preceded choppier risk conditions rather than marking the peak themselves.