BofA weekly flow data shows USD 23.6bln into bonds, USD 21.9bln into cash, USD 7.0bln out of stocks, USD 1.2bln out of crypto and USD 1.0bln out of gold

BULL & BEAR: BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 8.5 from 8.0, deepening into contrarian sell signal territory. BofA says this was driven by inflows to risky HY and EM debt, and the Global Breadth Rule rising toward overbought territory, with net 57% of global stock indices trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

EQUITIES: Global stocks posted their first outflow in nine weeks at USD 7.0bln; US equities saw a ninth straight week of inflows at USD 8.5bln; Japan suffered its largest outflow since May 2025 at USD 8.2bln; Europe posted a seventh straight week of outflows at USD 1.6bln; EM equities lost USD 14.2bln for a seventh straight week.

SECTORS: Consumer drew USD 0.7bln, tech USD 0.3bln and real estate USD 0.1bln. Materials saw the largest outflows at USD 2.3bln, followed by energy at USD 1.4bln, healthcare at USD 0.8bln, communication services at USD 0.6bln and financials at USD 0.4bln.

FIXED INCOME: IG bonds saw an eighth straight week of inflows at USD 12.3bln; EM debt drew USD 3.1bln for a seventh straight week; munis drew USD 2.9bln; Treasuries drew USD 2.7bln; bank loans saw a ninth straight week of inflows at USD 1.1bln; HY bonds saw a third straight week of inflows at USD 0.7bln; TIPS drew USD 0.5bln.

POSITIONING: BofA private clients’ AUM stood at USD 4.5tln; equity allocation was 66.0%, a record high; bond allocation was 17.3%, the lowest since March 2022; cash was 9.6%, a record low. Private clients recorded the biggest weekly outflow from cash on record and the biggest weekly inflow to T-bonds since October 2022. Over the past four weeks, private clients bought materials, municipal bond and TIPS ETFs, while selling utilities, low-volatility and bank loan ETFs.

TRADING VIEW: BofA says the post-bubble investor roadmap since 1929 points to long bonds and long defensives or sectors that dramatically underperformed in the final months of the bubble, the classic “long humiliation, short hubris” trade. It flags June as packed with event risk including US CPI potentially inching up on the 10th, a potential ECB hike on the 11th, a potential BoJ hike on the 16th and Chair Warsh’s first FOMC on the 17th, and says maximum bull positioning and profit expectations argue for taking profits and fading any drop in yields or rise in stocks.