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BoJ Governor Ueda says inflation upward risk could be a reason for raising rates, but not the only reason

BoJ Governor Ueda's comments suggest a nuanced view on inflation and potential rate increases.

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BoJ Governor Ueda says inflation upward risk could be a reason for raising rates, but not the only reason

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BoJ Governor Ueda says can not say how many months it would take to gauge timing of next rate hike, will look to see if underlying inflation has a clear upward risks

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  • Headline inflation to be higher for a while, but that does not mean underlying inflation is rising.
  • Not always clear which risk comes first, a price overshoot or an economic hit.
  • Not clear whether energy inflation would affect underlying inflation.
  • There are limits in narrowing down the neutral rate.
  • Real interest rates remain negative after December hike, believe financial conditions are accommodative now.
  • At this point, we are not aware of inflation expectations spiking in the mid-and-long-term.
Context

While acknowledging higher headline inflation as a risk, he emphasizes that underlying factors may not necessarily support a rate hike, reflecting a cautious stance that keeps markets in a wait-and-see mode on monetary policy. This indicates that any tightening will be data-dependent, likely impacting the JPY and interest rate expectations going forward.

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