BP (BP/ LN) Q1'2026 Trade Update: Reported upstream production in the first quarter is expected to be broadly flat compared to Q4'25
Further guidance:
- Gas & low carbon energy is expected to be slightly higher compared to Q4'25.
- Oil production & operations is expected to be slightly lower compared to Q4'25. Realisations are expected to have an impact compared to the prior quarter in the range of USD +0.1-0.2bln. These include the significant impact of the price lags on BP's production, particularly in the Gulf of America and the UAE where production is priced on one and two month lagged basis respectively.
- Net debt at the end of the first quarter is expected to be in the range of USD 25 to 27bln compared to the end of the fourth quarter 2025 (USD 22.2bln).
Context
BP's Q1'2026 update indicates upstream production is expected to be flat versus Q4'25, with slightly lower oil production offset by a marginal increase in gas and low carbon energy. The guidance suggests price lags will impact revenue, which could weigh on market sentiment, while rising net debt is a cautionary note for investors. Overall, this update highlights operational stability but raises concerns about revenue dynamics amid fluctuating oil prices.
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