[CALENDAR ADDITION] Fed Chair Warsh will speak at 10:00EDT/15:00BST on August 28th at Jackson Hole

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[CALENDAR ADDITION] Fed Chair Warsh will speak at 10:00EDT/15:00BST on August 28th at Jackson Hole

US Fed Balance Sheet (Aug/19) 6.746T (Prev. 6.760T)

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Context

A Fed chair speech at Jackson Hole is the highest-signal slot on the central banking calendar: the venue has repeatedly been used by sitting chairs to pre-announce or frame shifts in policy reaction function rather than merely to comment on the data, which is what distinguishes it from routine official remarks. The market convention is that the chair's address sets the tone for the autumn meeting cycle, so positioning and implied vol in the front end tend to build into the session and unwind afterward depending on whether the framework or just the near-term path is addressed. The distinction worth drawing is between commentary on the current stance, which typically moves two-year yields and the timing priced into the front of the curve, and any discussion of framework, balance sheet, or reaction function, which re-prices the curve more broadly and can lift term premium. Calendar additions of this kind also raise the sensitivity of every data print and inter-meeting speaker between now and the address, since each is read through the lens of what the chair may confirm. Worth watching is whether other officials steer expectations toward or away from a headline announcement in the run-up, a pattern that has historically preceded the venue's bigger moments.

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