CRUDE WRAP: WTI (U6) SETTLES USD 1.07 HIGHER AT 83.20/BBL; BRENT (V6) SETTLES USD 1.19 HIGHER AT USD 88.91/BBL

The crude complex ended the day with gains, albeit in which was a choppy session as Middle East headlines dominated the tape in an otherwise quiet day. Initially, upside was seen after reports that a Saudi ship was targeted near Bab al-Mandab by Yemen's Houthis. This saw WTI and Brent hit peaks of USD 84.61-/bbl and 90.03/bbl, respectively, before a few more constructive reports saw oil pare all gains; Qatar's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson remarked that negotiations between Oman and Iran are in an advanced stage, while Pakistani Defence Minister reportedly signalled the US and Iran are close to some agreement and the situation is moving towards peace. WTI and Brent then hit lows of USD 81.27/bbl and 86.60, before paring reversing again to settle well within session ranges, as WSJ, citing a US official, said US forces fired on a Panama-flagged ship that attempted to run the American blockade of Iranian ports early Tuesday. Ahead, aside from the obvious geopolitical updates, macro attention will be on US CPI on Wednesday.

Sessions driven by alternating Red Sea attack and de-escalation headlines have followed a familiar pattern through this kind of conflict tape: spikes on vessel targeting reports near Bab al-Mandab, retracements on any signal of diplomatic progress, with price settling mid-range when neither thread resolves. The transmission channel on the upside case is freight, insurance and rerouting costs rather than lost supply, which is why the risk premium has historically proved quick to build and quick to fade unless infrastructure or actual export volumes are hit. The mention of a US blockade of Iranian ports and forces firing on a vessel attempting to run it is a more material escalation than a Houthi attack, since enforcement action against Iranian flows touches actual barrels rather than transit risk, and that distinction tends to separate durable moves from intraday round trips. Reports that Oman-Iran talks are advanced and that Washington and Tehran are near an agreement sit at the other end of the ledger, and in past episodes confirmed de-escalation has unwound the war premium faster than attacks built it. The follow-ons that matter are confirmation or denial of the blockade report, any read-through to Iranian export volumes, and the CPI print, which reintroduces the macro channel to a complex currently trading headline to headline. Intraday peaks and troughs on days like this typically mark liquidity-poor headline chasing rather than repositioning.