CRUDE WRAP: WTI (M6) SETTLES USD 1.16 LOWER AT USD 101.02/BBL

The crude complex ended the day in the red in choppy trade. Focus resides around the Trump/Xi summit, as well as geopolitics, albeit there was nothing incrementally new on that footing as many await Trump’s return from China. As a reminder, source reports on Monday suggested Trump is weighing up possibly resuming military action, but sources added they don't think he would order any before he returns from China, while Israeli sources added that readiness will be raised upon the end of Trump's. As mentioned above, there was little market-moving headline newsflow, but the US President coursed his usual tone, noting Iran must “make a deal or be decimated”, while Tehran outlined strict preconditions for talks.

On the supply/demand side of things, IEA OMR forecasts world oil supply to fall by 3.9mln BPD in 2026 assuming Strait of Hormuz flows gradually resume from June (prev. forecast 1.5mln BPD fall), and sees total world oil supply 1.78mln BPD lower than demand in 2026 (prev. 0.41mln BPD higher). Meanwhile, OPEC MOMR was somewhat outdated given the US-Iran war in addition to the UAE's exit from the group, which occurred on May 1st, and thus is not captured in the April release.

In the weekly EIA data, which garnered little reaction, crude and gasoline saw a greater-than-expected draw, while distillates saw a surprise build, albeit only a small one. Crude production rose 137k W/W to 13.71mln.