CRUDE WRAP: WTI (M6) SETTLES USD 1.81 LOWER AT USD 105.07/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLES USD 0.04 LOWER AT USD 110.40/BBL

The decline in WTI and Brent crude prices, despite initial strength driven by heightened US-Iran tensions, underscores the complex interplay of geopolitical risks and market positioning.

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CRUDE WRAP: WTI (M6) SETTLES USD 1.81 LOWER AT USD 105.07/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLES USD 0.04 LOWER AT USD 110.40/BBL

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The crude complex was lower on Thursday.

Overnight, WTI and Brent saw strength and hit highs of USD 103.78/bbl and 114.70/bbl respectively, as US–Iran tensions escalated and de-escalation efforts continue to seem stalled. The US blockade remained central, with Washington also weighing fresh military options including strikes, Hormuz intervention, and uranium seizure operations. While there was no clear catalyst behind the initial reversal in oil prices, some desks cited that some participants may be rolling positions due to expiry dates. Despite saying that, a leg lower coincided with positive remarks from Japanese PM Takaichi - "worked to ensure passage of Japanese-related vessel through the Strait, following a call with the Iranian President" - which sparked Dollar selling. Therafter, benchmarks once again tested the earlier lows amid reports the US DoE solicits exchange of up to 92.5mln bbls of oil from the SPR. In terms of other Middle East updates, AP citing official, said Trump floats a new plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and US would continue its blockade on Iranian ports, while coordinating with allies to impose higher costs on Iran’s attempts to subvert the free flow of energy. In addition, Israeli Defence Minister said they may soon be asked to move again to ensure the achievement of goals in Iran. Some pressure ahead of settlement was found on MS NOW reports that two Pakistani officials in Islamabad with direct knowledge of the talks between the U.S. and Iran told MS NOW they expect a revised Iranian proposal to end the war by the end of the week. Note, this aligned with CNN reports on Wednesday.

Context

The settling prices suggest that while geopolitical factors are significant, traders may be adjusting their positions ahead of expiry dates, causing short-term volatility. Moreover, ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential changes in Iranian proposals could influence future price dynamics in the oil market.

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