CRUDE WRAP: WTI (V6) SETTLES USD 0.23 HIGHER AT 87.06/BBL; BRENT (V6) SETTLES USD 0.61 HIGHER AT 94.39/BBL

Crude prices settled higher, now seeing two consecutive weeks of gains. Absence of positive updates was behind the move higher, as markets now look towards US Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement on Monday of a new economic sanction operation on Iran that will "collapse the regime". The Jerusalem Post reported that security officials reportedly see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms. Today, Iran's Foreign Minister downplayed the effectiveness of prior US sanctions on Iran, claiming the incoming operation is bound to fail. Further adding to geopolitical risk, Iran's Navy Commander noted they we will soon teach the enemy a historical lesson at sea. In the European morning, a delayed reaction was seen in response to the Iranian President saying it is better to end the war today when they are in power; crude prices saw short-lived downside, perhaps as the IRGC and other hardliners would pushback on such actions until higher oil prices deal more damage to the US economy. Elsewhere, upside was also seen on reports that oil tankers have to wait for up to 30 days to load at Venezuelan ports, according to shipping data and sources. WTI and Brent traded between USD 85.80-87.51/bbl and USD 92.74-94.83/bbl, respectively.

• Baker Hughes rig count: Oil -3 at 452, Nat gas -1 at 127, Total -5 at 588.
• Iraq's PM said that the country plans to raise oil production to 8-10mln bpd, within six years.
• Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have reportedly declined, Reuters reports.
• Saudi Aramco reportedly instructed LPG buyers to resume loading cargoes from inside the Persian Gulf for the first time since port infrastructure was damaged amid the war, sources state.

Wraps of this kind, where crude grinds higher on headline risk rather than any confirmed supply loss, follow a familiar template: the geopolitical premium builds on threat rhetoric and sanction announcements, then either validates on actual disruption to flows or bleeds out over the following sessions when nothing materialises. The distinction that matters is between risk premia driven by potential enforcement (a new Iran sanctions operation aimed at collapsing export volumes) and premia driven by observable physical tightness (tankers reportedly waiting weeks to load at Venezuelan ports, Iranian offers to Chinese buyers reportedly declining). The latter is the more durable support, since it reflects barrels actually struggling to clear rather than barrels that might be targeted. Episodes where sanctions escalation coincides with shipping friction have tended to tighten the prompt end of the curve and firm timespreads before flat price follows. Iranian officialdom downplaying sanctions effectiveness is standard form in these cycles and carries little information content in itself; the signal lies in enforcement mechanics and whether Chinese and other buyers actually pull back from discounted barrels. The follow-ons are the sanction operation's specifics early next week, any shift in Iranian export loadings, and whether front spreads confirm what flat price is implying.