CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) SETTLES USD 1.76 LOWER AT USD 91.11/BBL; BRENT (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.06 LOWER AT USD 102.25/BBL

Coordinated strategic stock releases of this kind have a familiar signature: an initial leg lower on the announcement as the market prices the headline volume, followed by a reassessment once the duration and physical feasibility of the drawdown are digested, since spreads and prompt structure tend to retrace when the release is spread thinly over months rather than delivered at once. The case distinction that matters here is the conditional framing: the release was tied to the US refraining from a unilateral diesel export ban, so the two outcomes behave differently, a ban being structurally more disruptive to Atlantic basin product flows than a time-limited stock draw. The afternoon recovery from intraday lows on no clear driver fits the established pattern of weekend short covering when an unresolved geopolitical premium remains in the price. The Brent-WTI spread is the tell to monitor, since diesel-centric stress and export policy historically show up in that differential before flat price. The rig count increment was marginal and consistent with the slow supply response that has characterised recent cycles. The next follow-ons are any confirmation or watering down of the release mechanics and weekend headlines from the Middle East.