Daily Bond Auction Preview - 11th August 2026

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Previews of UK, EU and US government bond auctions including the size of issuance, time of the auction(s), estimates, redemptions, coupons and analyst commentary.

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Analysis:

• Currently, the 5yr yield trades at 2.91%. Even though yields have come off its best levels, they remain at elevated levels as Brent returns to the USD 90/bbl mark. Tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran have seemingly come to a halt; however, a deal over the reopening of Hormuz and an eventual end to the conflict remains unclear.
• For the ECB, another rate hike is expected, with 39bps priced in by year-end. With the coupon on offer close to the current yield, investors will likely not have a preference between the primary and secondary market.
• In terms of recent history, 5 of the last 11 auctions have resulted in technical failures.

Recent History:

• 2.90% 2031: b/c 1.48x, average yield 2.89%, retention 24.1%

Results due shortly after the 10:30BST bidding deadline

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Analysis:

• This week's auctions come on the back of a weak July US jobs report and around the release of July CPI. The 3-year auction will take place before the inflation report, leaving bidders exposed to event risk the following morning. The 10-year auction will take place several hours after CPI on Wednesday, while the 30-year will follow a day later, meaning the inflation report and subsequent repricing of Fed expectations could have a bearing on demand for duration.
• The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, although the pace of strikes between the US and Iran has slowed considerably. Negotiations surrounding the reopening of the Strait remain difficult, with Iran seeking compensation for war damages, while Trump has responded by saying the US also wants compensation and has instructed negotiators to raise the issue in talks. The competing demands risk complicating negotiations and leave energy prices—and therefore inflation expectations—a source of volatility for Treasuries.
• Overall, higher outright yields than at the July auctions should provide a more attractive entry point for investors, particularly at the long end following the recent curve steepening. Treasury volatility is also broadly comparable with levels surrounding the previous strong round of supply. However, CPI represents the key near-term risk: the 3-year auction faces event risk from being held ahead of the release, while the 10- and 30-year auctions will have the benefit of greater clarity on the inflation outlook and Fed pricing. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Hormuz also remains a potential source of volatility, despite the recent reduction in US-Iran strikes.

Recent History:

• Tail: prev. -0.6bps, six-auction average 0.0bps
• High Yield: prev. 4.179%, six-auction average 3.888%
• B/C: prev. 2.60x, six-auction average 2.61x
• Dealer: prev. 7.7%, six-auction average 13.9%
• Direct: prev. 24.8%, six-auction average 21.7%
• Indirect: prev. 67.5%, six-auction average 64.3%

Results due shortly after the 18:00BST bidding deadline