Daily Bond Auction Preview - 11th August 2026

Previews of UK, EU and US government bond auctions including the size of issuance, time of the auction(s), estimates, redemptions, coupons and analyst commentary.

Germany to sell EUR 6bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl

Analysis:

Currently, the 5yr yield trades at 2.91%. Even though yields have come off its best levels, they remain at elevated levels as Brent returns to the USD 90/bbl mark. Tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran have seemingly come to a halt; however, a deal over the reopening of Hormuz and an eventual end to the conflict remains unclear.
For the ECB, another rate hike is expected, with 39bps priced in by year-end. With the coupon on offer close to the current yield, investors will likely not have a preference between the primary and secondary market.
In terms of recent history, 5 of the last 11 auctions have resulted in technical failures.

Recent History:

2.90% 2031: b/c 1.48x, average yield 2.89%, retention 24.1%

Results due shortly after the 10:30BST bidding deadline

The US to sell USD 58bln 3-Year Note

Analysis:

This week's auctions come on the back of a weak July US jobs report and around the release of July CPI. The 3-year auction will take place before the inflation report, leaving bidders exposed to event risk the following morning. The 10-year auction will take place several hours after CPI on Wednesday, while the 30-year will follow a day later, meaning the inflation report and subsequent repricing of Fed expectations could have a bearing on demand for duration.
The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, although the pace of strikes between the US and Iran has slowed considerably. Negotiations surrounding the reopening of the Strait remain difficult, with Iran seeking compensation for war damages, while Trump has responded by saying the US also wants compensation and has instructed negotiators to raise the issue in talks. The competing demands risk complicating negotiations and leave energy prices—and therefore inflation expectations—a source of volatility for Treasuries.
Overall, higher outright yields than at the July auctions should provide a more attractive entry point for investors, particularly at the long end following the recent curve steepening. Treasury volatility is also broadly comparable with levels surrounding the previous strong round of supply. However, CPI represents the key near-term risk: the 3-year auction faces event risk from being held ahead of the release, while the 10- and 30-year auctions will have the benefit of greater clarity on the inflation outlook and Fed pricing. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Hormuz also remains a potential source of volatility, despite the recent reduction in US-Iran strikes.

Recent History:

Tail: prev. -0.6bps, six-auction average 0.0bps
High Yield: prev. 4.179%, six-auction average 3.888%
B/C: prev. 2.60x, six-auction average 2.61x
Dealer: prev. 7.7%, six-auction average 13.9%
Direct: prev. 24.8%, six-auction average 21.7%
Indirect: prev. 67.5%, six-auction average 64.3%

Results due shortly after the 18:00BST bidding deadline

Supply previews of this kind set up the usual sequencing question: where event risk sits relative to the auction, and who has to absorb the paper if timing is wrong. The US 3-year selling ahead of a CPI release is the classic adverse configuration, since bidders must price an unknown inflation print and typically demand a concession to compensate; the 10- and 30-year that follow have the release behind them and historically draw cleaner sponsorship when the data cooperates. Higher outright yields relative to the prior round tend to attract indirect interest, and a below-average dealer takedown at the last comparable sale signals end-user demand has been doing the work rather than primary dealers warehousing supply. On the German side, a coupon set close to the prevailing secondary yield leaves little roll to capture, and a run of technical failures in recent Bobl supply is a reminder that mid-curve German paper has periodically failed to clear at the stated size, a distinct risk profile from the Treasury leg. The shared channel across both is the energy-linked inflation impulse, with repricing flowing through breakevens and Fed and ECB rate pricing into auction demand. The immediate tells are the 3-year tail versus its recent average, the indirect share relative to trend, and whether the German sale covers its full size, with the inflation print the hinge between the two halves of the US refunding.