[MARKET ANALYSIS] AUD unchanged after choppy performance post-RBA; Quiet action elsewhere across G10s, USD a little firmer

• Quiet action across G10s sees most currencies flat against the Buck with geopolitics driving the little moves seen. 
• DXY attempting to build on Monday's gains, now looking towards the 100 mark as elevated energy benchmarks continue to support the Greenback (see commodities), price action which has supported a couple more bps of tightening across Fed expectations. Focus this week is overwhelmingly on the CPI print, especially since FT sources before NFP suggested Warsh was focused on the inflation side of the mandate heading into the September meeting. Data scheduled today includes the weekly ADP release, while the Fed speaker slate is light. 
• AUD broadly unchanged after the RBA left rates unchanged, in line with analyst/market expectations. Some immediate AUD weakness on the statement as it tweaked language around inflation vigilance ("prepared to increase the cash rate if required" -> "...if upside risks materialise"), added the description of policy as "somewhat restrictive", and revised inflation forecasts lower, points which reinforce the view the bank is comfortable and set to remain on hold until mid-2027 as markets expect. However, the hawkish presser, "Possible we need to hike again" saw a reversal of that kneejerk lower, leaving AUD/USD just 10 pips lower at 0.7050. Some banks still caution there are hawkish risks to the outlook, while ING, Westpac and MUFG are some of the banks maintaining calls for unch. in 2026; RBA market pricing reflects the same, steady post-announcement. 
• Some continued strength in energy exporters against the Dollar as geopolitics lacks positive updates, with CAD (+0.1%) and NOK (+0.1%). The latter has passed 1.00 in the Scandi cross (NOK/SEK +0.2%) as SEK suffers as a net importer. Action elsewhere is quiet, GBP, JPY, CHF all flat against the USD; EUR also unch. vs. the Buck, though firmer against most CEE, HUF to the largest degree.  

The statement-presser split here is a familiar RBA pattern: a hold accompanied by softer written language, lower inflation forecasts and a self-description of policy as only somewhat restrictive initially read dovish, before the Governor's verbal pushback retraced the move. That kneejerk-then-reversal sequence is the standard anatomy of on-hold decisions where the statement is drafted for flexibility but the press conference is used to guard against markets pricing easing too aggressively. The operative tell is the conditional wording shift on the tightening bias: moving from a readiness to hike to hiking only if upside risks materialise is a genuine softening of the trigger, and historically such phrasing changes matter more for the path priced at the front of the curve than the hold itself. The floor under AUD came from the explicit retention of a hike option, which distinguishes this from an outright neutral stance; banks split between those flagging hawkish residual risk and those comfortable with an extended hold is itself typical of mid-pause cycles. Follow-ons are the inflation prints that would test whether upside risks materialise under the new wording, and whether subsequent RBA communications repeat the presser hawkishness or let the statement language stand. Against that, the dominant external driver is the US CPI release and energy-supported Dollar firmness, which has tended to swamp idiosyncratic G10 central bank signals when the two point in opposite directions.