Daily US Equity Opening News - AMD sees tighter CPU market; WDAY, ZM, and ROST rise on earnings beat

DAY AHEAD:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.5%, NQ +0.5%, YM +0.8%, RUT +0.6%
BROKER MOVES: AA upgraded at UBS; INSP downgraded at BofA. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: AMD, WDAY, TTWO, ZM, ROST, AA, INSP. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: . For the full list, click here.
EVENTS: Kevin Warsh is due to be sworn in as Fed Chair. Pakistani Interior Minister meets Iran’s Foreign Minister again to study proposals to resolve US-Iran disputes.
DATA: Final US Michigan consumer sentiment is seen at 48.2 (prev. 49.8), current conditions at 47.8 (prev. 52.5), and expectations at 48.5 (prev. 48.1), the 1yr inflation expectation is expected to print 4.5% (prev. 4.7%) and 5-year inflation at 3.4% (prev. 3.5%); the Conference Board's leading index is also due (prev. -0.6% M/M).
CENTRAL BANKS: The BoC senior loan officer survey is released.
SPEAKERS: Fed's Waller (voter, dove) speaks on the economic outlook.
CRA: Moody's reviews UK (Aa3) and Portugal (A3); Scope Ratings reviews China (A); Moody's reviews Hungary (Baa2); S&P reviews Norway (AAA).
ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 410, gas 129, total 548).

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

Iran - Arab sources said Pakistani Army Chief ready to travel to Tehran on condition of finalizing the agreement's final formula, Al Arabiya reports; further reports state that the Army Chief has left for Iran. The goal of the current mission of Pakistan's interior minister is to reach an agreement on the framework of negotiations. It has been widely touted by Al Arabiya and Al Hadath that a deal has been finalised but is yet to be agreed upon by the US and Iran side. Pakistani Army Chief traveling to Tehran signals hopes that the finalised deal will be agreed upon by both sides. Late on Thursday, a senior Iranian source said no deal had been reached but gaps had narrowed. Uranium enrichment and control over the Strait of Hormuz remain sticking points. Iran’s Supreme Leader on thursday rejected handing enriched uranium to Washington.
US-Iran - House Republican leaders cancelled a vote on the Iran war after GOP absences threatened defeat. The move follows a tied House vote the previous week on a resolution to halt US military action against Iran, while a Senate resolution to end the war has advanced past a procedural hurdle. A Republican aide said the vote will be rescheduled after the Memorial Day recess.
US-Europe - President Trump reversed course and announced the deployment of an additional 5k troops to Poland, citing the election of President Karol Nawrocki. The move comes a week after the Pentagon paused plans to send approximately 4k soldiers to Poland.

INDEX

S&P 600 - S&P Dow Jones Indices said Universal Technical Institute (UTI) and Peloton Interactive (PTON) will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 from 27th May, replacing Veris Residential (VRE) and Enviri Corp (NVRI) respectively. Affinius and Vista Hill are acquiring Veris Residential, while Enviri is spinning off operations before Veolia Environment (VEOEY) acquires the remaining parent entity.

TECH

AMD (AMD) - AMD CEO Lisa Su said it is working with Taiwan partners to increase production capacity as stronger-than-expected demand tightens the global CPU market. Su said supply should rise each quarter this year, with significantly more planned for 2027 and beyond. AMD growth is being driven by AI inferencing and agentic AI, while China remains about 20% of its revenue, she added.
Apple (AAPL) - Apple asked the US Supreme Court to review a lower court ruling that held the company in civil contempt over App Store fees tied to outside purchases. The move escalates Apple’s long-running legal battle with Epic Games over App Store payment rules and developer restrictions.
Workday (WDAY) - Workday rose in extended trading after stronger than expected results, as well as an upgraded margin forecast, with management citing strength in AI and rising use of its AI agents. Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.66 (exp. 2.52), Revenue 2.54bln (exp. 2.52bln). Subscription revenue backlog remained solid, with 12-month subscription revenue backlog +15.5% Y/Y to 8.806bln, and total subscription revenue backlog +10.9% Y/Y to 27.294bln. The CEO said Workday had a great Q1, with a strong core business and an AI strategy that is working. CFO said it remains focused on executing its agentic AI roadmap, while driving operational efficiencies. Sees Q2 subscription revenue at 2.455bln (representing 13% growth), and sees Q2 adj. operating margin 30.0%. Backed FY27 subscription revenue of 9.925-9.950bln (exp. 10.66bln), while raising FY27 adj. operating margin guidance to 30.5%.
Microsoft (MSFT) - CEO to dismantle decades-long senior leadership structure; to create smaller and flatter teams, Business Insider reports.
OpenAI - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees the company may delay its IPO even if it files soon, with timing dependent on market conditions, The Information reports.
Lenovo Group (LNVGY) - Lenovo shares rose overnight after strong AI-related growth offset higher component costs. FY profit +38%, and revenue +20%. AI-related revenue was 38% of Q4 sales, growing 84%, while Lenovo said it has a USD 21bln AI server pipeline, and will start delivering Nvidia (NVDA) Rubin-based platforms in H2.
ASML (ASML) - CEO Fouquet said the EU risks pushing AI companies out of the region.
Webull (BULL) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 0.03 (exp. 0.03), Revenue 159.9mln (exp. 157.67mln).

COMMUNICATIONS

Meta Platforms (META) - Texas AG Ken Paxton sued Meta Platforms and WhatsApp, alleging they misled consumers about WhatsApp privacy protections and falsely claimed messages are encrypted. The lawsuit, brought under the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act, says reports and investigations indicate WhatsApp employees could access user communications and message content after messages were sent.
Take-Two (TTWO) - Take-Two shares rose in extended trading after a Q4 beat, despite weaker guidance for the next quarter and upcoming financial year, as it reiterated a 19th November release date for its key GTA6 game. Q4 2026 (USD): EPS -0.32 (exp. -0.57), Revenue 1.68bln (exp. 1.55bln). Q4 net bookings 1.58bln (exp. 1.55bln). The CEO said FY27 should establish new record levels of operating performance, driven by the 19th November launch of 'Grand Theft Auto VI'; expects to sustain a higher level of scale, generate strong cash flows and deliver long-term shareholder value as it releases its development pipeline, optimises live services and pursues new opportunities. Sees Q1 EPS between -0.23 and -0.15, sees Q1 net bookings between 1.32-1.37bln (exp. 1.5bln). Sees FY27 EPS between 0.55-0.75, sees FY27 net bookings between 8.0-8.2bln (exp. 9.3bln).
Warner Bros. (WBD), Paramount (PSKY) - JPMorgan-led banks increased a leveraged loan offering for Warner Bros. to USD 10.2bln, including a USD 9bln tranche, and unchanged EUR 1bln tranche, Bloomberg reports. The refinancing would partly repay a roughly USD 15bln bridge facility ahead of Warner’s planned USD 110bln acquisition by Paramount.
Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX), Paramount (PSKY), Amazon (AMZN) - Canada's broadcasting regulator has mandated that streaming platforms including Netflix spend 15% of their annual Canadian revenues on local content, up from a previous 5% requirement. Traditional broadcasters will see their contribution requirement reduced to 25% from a range of 30-45%. The Motion Picture Association, representing Netflix, Disney, Paramount and Amazon, said the rules violate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, while the USTR has previously cited Canada's online platform laws as trade barriers.
IMAX Corporation (IMAX) - IMAX is exploring a sale and has approached entertainment companies as potential buyers, according to sources cited by the WSJ. The process is at an early stage and may not produce a deal.
Nintendo (NTDOY) - Nintendo has asked suppliers and manufacturing partners to assemble about 20mln Switch 2 consoles in the year through March, around 20% above its public sales forecast, Bloomberg reports (Nintendo prev. saw 16.5mln Switch 2 unit sales for the current FY); the production target remains subject to demand revisions.
Zoom Communications (ZM) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 1.55 (exp. 1.42), Revenue 1.24bln (exp. 1.22bln). Online average monthly churn was 3.0%. The CEO cited continued momentum as customers adopt Zoom as an AI-first system. AI Companion paid users +184% Y/Y, My Notes reached 1.5mln licensed users within four months of launch, and Zoom Customer Experience continued to deliver accelerating high-double-digit growth. Raised its share repurchase authorisation by USD 1.0bln, adding to the USD 625.0mln remaining at end-April. Management said enterprise conditions remain strong and durable, online business has stabilised, and it is working on enterprise billings churn and AI monetisation. Sees Q2 EPS between 1.45-1.47 (exp. 1.47) and Q2 revenue of 1.265-1.27bln (exp. 1.27bln). Raised FY27 view EPS to between 5.96-6.00 (exp. 5.87; prev. saw 5.77-5.81), and sees FY27 revenue of 5.08-5.09bln (exp. 5.07bln; prev. saw 5.07-5.08bln).
BT (BTGOF) - Bharti Enterprises is reportedly considering increasing its BT stake to just under 30% (from 24.95%), without planning a full takeover.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Richemont (CFRUY) - Richemont FY sales rose 11% (exp. 9.8%) on resilient Cartier jewellery demand, and all regions contributing to growth; it also announced a share buyback of up to 10mln shares; ahead, said uncertainty is likely to persist.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) - Shares rose in extended US trading after a Q4 beat and initial guidance for FY27. Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 0.96 (exp. 0.83), Revenue 1.12bln (exp. 1.09bln). The CEO said earnings growth was powered by continued momentum at HOKA and enduring strength at UGG, while brand building, product innovation, category leadership and marketplace execution continue to drive full-price demand across a growing global audience. Increased its stock repurchase authorisation by 3.5bln, bringing total outstanding authorisation to ~5.0bln. Sees FY27 EPS between 7.30-7.45 (exp. 7.33), sees FY27 revenue between 5.86-5.91bln (exp. 5.82bln), with HOKA expected to rise by a low-double-digit percentage, and UGG by a mid-single-digit percentage; gross margin seen at about 56.5%, SG&A at about 35% of net sales, and an operating margin of about 21.5%.
Ross Stores (ROST) - Ross Stores shares rose in extended trading after Q1 earnings and revenue beat expectations, supported by strong comparable sales, higher customer traffic, better margins, and a raised FY outlook. Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 2.02 (exp. 1.72), Revenue 6.0bln (exp. 5.65bln); comps rose 17%, while the operating margin of 13.4% was well above the company’s 11.8-12.1% plan, primarily due to strong sales outperformance. The CEO said performance was driven mainly by customer traffic, compelling merchandise assortments, higher customer acquisition and engagement from marketing initiatives, an improved in-store experience and a benefit from tax refund-related consumer spending. It repurchased 1.5mln shares for USD 319mln in Q1 under its two-year USD 2.55bln authorisation, and remains on track to buy back USD 1.275bln in FY26. Sees Q2 EPS between 1.85-1.93 (exp. 1.79), with comp sales up 6-7%; raised FY26 EPS to between 7.50-7.74 (exp. 7.42; prev. saw 7.02-7.36), reflecting same-store sales growth of 6-7%.
Polymarket - South Korea’s media regulator is formally reviewing whether Polymarket hosts illegal gambling content or violates national law, Bloomberg reports. The Korea Communications Standards Commission opened the review ahead of the June local elections, with related contracts appearing on Polymarket. The platform faces growing scrutiny globally and is seeking approval to operate in Japan, BBG notes. Elsewhere, Polymarket appointed a representative in Japan and is preparing to lobby for prediction market authorisation there; it seeks Japanese government approval by 2030, and views Japan as a large untapped business opportunity.
Telsa (TSLA) - Will recall 14.5k vehicles due to missing weight information, which may lead to overloading, NHTSA said.
Sweetgreen (SG) - Upgraded at JPMorgan to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 13 PT (prev. 8), following an "encouraging" meeting with management. Under new management, Sweetgreen has been aggressive at adopting new products "people actually want to eat," like wraps. JPMorgan believes the brand's transformation is gaining momentum with "lower-risk" visibility into a free cash flow inflection. The firm believes Sweetgreen is maintaining ingredient integrity while better nationalising both its supply chain and in-store operations.
Renault (RNLSY) - Renault priced JPY 159bln of Samurai bonds, its second-largest such offering. The sale included JPY 100bln aimed at retail investors and exceeded last year’s deal. Foreign yen bond issuance has more than tripled this year to about JPY 1.7tln as of 21st May, with Alphabet among issuers, Bloomberg reports.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Puig (PUGBY), Estee Lauder (EL) - Puig Brands and Estee Lauder ended talks over a proposed multibillion-dollar combination after tensions over makeup artist Charlotte Tilbury’s compensation demands in the deal, Bloomberg reports. The companies had held discussions since March and issued statements saying talks had ended, without giving a reason.
Flowers Foods (FLO) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.29 (exp. 0.27), Revenue 1.572bln (exp. 1.58bln). The CEO said disciplined cost management helped deliver performance in line with expectations despite softer top-line results, reflecting ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions; said it is strengthening its long-term position by evolving its product portfolio, including the relaunch of Nature’s Own with simple ingredients and Non-GMO Project Verified certification. Remains cautious on the rest of the year, but cited confidence in its brands, supply chain and delivery network, better-for-you category exposure and improving balance sheet. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 0.80-0.90 (exp. 0.83), sees FY26 revenue between 5.163-5.267bln (exp. 5.19bln), and sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between 465-495mln.
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.10 (exp. 1.04), Revenue 5.66bln (exp. 5.43bln); backed FY26 adj. EPS view of 4.40-4.60 (exp. 4.52).
Altria (MO) - US Smokeless Tobacco Company, a subsidiary of Altria, will move manufacturing operations from Nashville, Tennessee, to a new facility on its Hopkinsville, Kentucky campus. Nashville production will wind down gradually and is expected to end in early 2028.

FINANCIALS

JPMorgan (JPM) - JPMorgan is in talks with investors to offload risk tied to more than USD 4bln in NAV loans to private equity funds, the FT reports. The structure would keep the loans on JPMorgan’s balance sheet while shifting up to 12.5% of potential first losses to investors for a low-teens return.
Coinbase (COIN) - Coinbase Derivatives will launch perpetual-style equity index futures on 8th June, bringing the structure into a CFTC-regulated framework. The initial contracts will track AI, China, defence and top Nasdaq companies, offering capital-efficient thematic exposure with funding rates intended to keep prices aligned with underlying MarketVector indexes.
Citigroup (C) - Plans to direct a significant share of its global wealth-management hiring toward Asia, where its private banking business is growing fastest and delivering the highest productivity. The bank expects to hire about 100 private bankers globally as part of a broader expansion of its wealth business.
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Agreed to pay USD 500mln to settle a shareholder class action tied to its role in the 1MDB corruption scandal. The settlement, which still requires court approval, resolves claims that the bank misled investors about its dealings with the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund.
Futu Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR) - China’s CSRC and other regulators announced a crackdown on illegal cross-border brokerage activity, including stricter monitoring, investigations and shutdowns of overseas trading platforms serving mainland investors. Existing illegal businesses must be phased out within two years, with bans on new account openings, fund inflows and overseas marketing to mainland clients. Regulators also plan penalties against Futu, Tiger Brokers and Longbridge Securities, including confiscation of illegal gains.
Julius Baer (JBAXY) - Julius Baer expects H1 profit to be substantially higher Y/Y, as exceptionally high activity offset client inflows slowing.
UK Banks - UK banks are set to save over GBP 1bln from financial services red-tape cuts, including up to GBP 18.7mln from compensation rule changes, Politico reports.

ENERGY

Alberta - Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called a 19th October referendum on whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a binding separation vote, Bloomberg reports. Smith said she supports remaining in Canada. A Stay Free Alberta petition drew more than 301,000 signatures, while a rival pro-Canada petition drew more than 400,000.
ExxonMobil (XOM) - Exxon is in talks to acquire rights to produce oil in up to six Venezuelan fields, nearly two decades after leaving the country, NYT reports. A deal could be finalised and announced this month.
Shell (SHEL) - Shell faces a hearing at the Dutch Supreme Court, brought by climate group Milieudefensie, seeking a legally enforceable obligation to cut CO2 emissions 45% below 2019 levels by 2030, Bloomberg reports. A 2021 lower court ruling ordering the reduction was overturned on appeal, as judges could not specify a precise target. An advisory opinion is expected later in 2026, with a formal decision anticipated in early 2027.
EOG Resources (EOG) - Board raised its share repurchase authorisation from USD 10bln to USD 20bln, adding USD 10bln to the existing programme. At end-March, it had repurchased approximately 59.4mln shares at a total cost of approximately USD 7.1bln, leaving approximately USD 2.9bln remaining under the prior authorisation.
Devon Energy (DVN) - Acquired 16,300 net undeveloped acres in New Mexico’s Delaware Basin for about USD 2.6bln through a federal lease sale. The deal adds roughly 400 drilling locations and expands Devon’s footprint in the Permian Basin following its merger with Coterra Energy.

INDUSTRIALS

Airlines - The US HHS has threatened to curtail customs processing at airports in sanctuary cities that do not comply with the Trump administration's immigration policies. Airports potentially affected include JFK, Newark Liberty, and Washington Dulles, with Portland International likely among the first targets. Airlines for America warned the move would have a "devastating effect" on the airline and tourism industries, while Transport Secretary Duffy said he opposed shutting down air travel over political disagreements.
SpaceX (SPCX) - SpaceX postponed a Starship launch due to a malfunctioning hydraulic pin on the launch tower, with a further attempt planned for 22:30GMT on 22nd May, BBC reports. The delay comes as the company pursues a Nasdaq IPO in June. Separately, coding startup Cursor reached a USD 3bln annualised revenue run rate in late April (vs USD 2bln in February), with more than 3,000 customers paying at least USD 100K each annually; SpaceX has the right to acquire Cursor for USD 60bln during a 30-day window beginning shortly after its expected 12th June listing, with the deal anticipated to close in July.
FedEx (FDX) - InPost said a consortium including FedEx and Advent International will launch its USD 9bln takeover offer from May 26 to July 27. The deal would help FedEx expand its European logistics footprint, while InPost shares would be delisted after completion.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Rocket Lab was awarded a USD 90mln contract by the US Space Force's Space Systems Command to design, manufacture, integrate, and operate two geostationary satellites hosting the Heimdall space domain awareness payload.
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.78 (exp. 1.34), Revenue 2.8bln (exp. 2.87bln); sees FY27 adj. EPS at 6.00-6.35 (exp. 6.25).
Copart (CPRT) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.43 (exp. 0.41), Revenue 1.2bln (exp. 1.2bln).
Kawasaki Heavy (KWHIY), Nvidia (NVDA) - Kawasaki Heavy Industries shares rose overnight following the company’s plan to collaborate with Nvidia and others on physical AI robot technology, combining Kawasaki’s robotics technologies with Nvidia’s physical AI to control robots.

MATERIALS

Alcoa (AA) - Upgraded at UBS to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 80 PT (prev. 75). The firm believes smelter outages due to a protracted conflict in the Middle East will more than offset Alcoa's near-term demand risks, resulting in "stronger for longer" aluminum prices and premiums. This will more than offset lower for longer alumina prices and driven "earnings resilience" that is not priced into Alcoa shares. UBS also believes debt reduction could open the door for buybacks in the second half of 2026, serving as a positive catalyst for Alcoa shares.
Perpetua Resources (PPTA) - Secured approval for a USD 2.9bln EXIM Bank loan to fund development of its Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho. The Pentagon-backed project is expected to become the first US antimony mine, supplying more than 35% of US antimony demand once operational by 2028.
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (ALMMF) - Chalco agreed to invest USD 1bln in a 1.2mln/year alumina plant in Guinea, Bloomberg reports. The government will receive a 5% stake for free or nominal cost and may raise its holding at market value to as much as 35%.
BASF (BASFY) - BASF said Weidmuller is using its Ultramid Advanced N3U41 G6 polyphthalamide in OMNIMATE 4.0 PCB connectors and terminals.

HEALTHCARE

CVS Health (CVS) - Glenview Capital said CVS Health shares have returned 80% since its May 2024 purchases and remain among its three largest positions. Following Q1 results and higher annual guidance, Glenview reduced holdings by 3.75mln shares for diversification and buying power, with no plans for further CVS adjustments, it said.
Biogen (BIIB), Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) - Biogen and Denali Therapeutics' Phase 2b LUMA study of BIIB122, an LRRK2 inhibitor, failed to slow Parkinson's disease progression versus placebo on the primary endpoint of Time to Confirmed Worsening, with secondary endpoints also showing no benefit. Both will discontinue BIIB122 development in idiopathic Parkinson's disease, though Denali will independently continue the Phase 2a BEACON study in pathogenic LRRK2 variant carriers, with data anticipated in H1 2027.
AbbVie (ABBV) - Allergan Aesthetics, an AbbVie company, received a positive CHMP opinion recommending approval of Boey for temporary improvement in moderate to severe lines between the eyebrows at maximum frown in adults where these have an important psychological impact. A European Commission decision is expected in the coming months.
Illumina (ILMN) - Illumina appointed David King to its board of directors, effective after its annual shareholder meeting. King, the former executive chairman and CEO of Labcorp (LH), joins as Illumina accelerates its clinical strategy to integrate genomics more broadly into standard care.
Cencora (COR) - Slightly raised FY26 adj. EPS view to 17.70-17.90 (exp. 17.76, prev. 17.65-17.90).
AstraZeneca (AZN) - AstraZeneca will showcase Phase III data in liver, breast and bladder cancers at ASCO 2026, including Imfinzi and Imjudo in early liver cancer.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) - Announced the CHMP of the EMA has adopted a positive opinion, recommending the marketing authorization of Trodelvy as a monotherapy for the treatment of adult patients with unresectable locally advanced or TNBC.
Bayer (BAYRY) - Bayer's Kerendia received Chinese NMPA approval for a label update extending its indication to adults with heart failure and LVEF above 40%.
Sandoz (SDZNY) - Sandoz urged the EU Commission to investigate alleged dumping by China of key ingredients.

TRADE

China - China urged Asia-Pacific economies to deepen cooperation amid global tensions and rising protectionism. Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said unilateralism and protectionism are increasing, making it more necessary to seek common ground, respect differences and overcome difficulties together.
China - China adjusted its export list for drug-making chemicals to specific countries; exports of relevant chemicals to the US, Mexico and Canada must apply for licences under regulations.
China-Japan - Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said it was natural to seek communication with Chinese counterpart Wang at the APEC trade chiefs’ meeting in Suzhou; Akazawa said Japan’s fundamental stance towards China had not changed, and called for free trade based on the rule of law, without unfair export restrictions.

MACRO

Japan CPI - Japan's core CPI rose 1.4% Y/Y (exp. 1.7%), the slowest pace in four years, which analysts said complicates the case for a near-term BoJ rate rise. Excluding energy, CPI climbed 1.9% (exp. 2.2%).
Japan Budget - FinMin Katayama suggested that Japan’s extra budget will likely be around JPY 3tln; she said cancelled bond sales from last year’s budget could limit fresh debt issuance. PM Takaichi plans electricity and gas subsidies over summer, while other reports note that gasoline subsidies are likely to be extended.
JPY - Yen traders are on alert for potential Japanese government intervention on Monday as public holidays in London and New York thin market liquidity, Bloomberg says. The USDJPY is hovering around 159, near its weakest since April, when authorities bought as much as JPY 10tln during Golden Week. Overnight index swaps indicate an approximately 83% probability of a BoJ rate move in June, the article adds.
RBA Expectations - This week’s weak April employment report prompted more curve-steepening trades as investors bet the RBA is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.5%. Bloomberg notes that September bank bill futures volumes climbed 2.5x times on Thursday, and swaps still price one additional 25bps hike by year-end.
Germany Gfk Confidence - German GfK Consumer Confidence rose to -29.8 (exp. -34, prev. -33.3); Gfk said consumer confidence has ended its downward trend for now, citing improved income expectations, softer saving behaviour and a slight recovery in consumption sentiment, while warning that the Middle East conflict’s negative impact remains largely unchanged and continues to limit a stronger recovery.
UK Gfk Confidence - GfK's UK consumer confidence index rose points to -23 in May (exp. -28), though analysts said the headline improvement masked sharp divergences across income groups. Lower-earning households saw the biggest deterioration in confidence, while only those earning GBP 50K or more reported an uptick. Savings intentions fell 10 points, the largest monthly drop since September 2024, suggesting consumers are drawing on savings to cover day-to-day expenses.
UK Retail Sales - UK retail sales fell by -1.3% M/M (exp. -0.6%, prev. 0.7%), with the ex-fuel measure -0.4% M/M (exp. -0.3%, prev. 0.2%); the annual rate fell to 0.0% Y/Y (exp. 1.3%, prev. 1.7%). Analysts at Pantheon Macro say recent weakness reflects tighter consumer spending amid higher motor fuel prices and Iran War uncertainty, though the headline fall was exaggerated by lower fuel sales after March panic buying; it expects weaker sales growth to persist, and Q2 GDP growth to slow sharply.