Newsqawk European Market Wrap - 9th September 2026

• Crude futures edged higher throughout the session as elevated Middle Eastern tensions continued to underpin the complex.
• European bourses are set to end Wednesday's trade entirely in the red; US cash equities opened softer across the board.
• JPY was bid throughout the session. Much of the strength is a continuation of recent action given the hawkish BoJ repricing and Bessent commentary.

EQUITIES

• European bourses are set to end Wednesday's trade entirely in the red, weighed down by the conflict-driven upside in energy benchmarks. Overnight, US forces struck multiple Iranian tankers tied to the IRGC in response to more attempted missile attacks on a US Navy warship, while Iran retaliated. Spain's IBEX 35 was the underperformer.
• Sectors held the negative bias, as Utilities, Energy and Telecoms continued to be the sole gainers. The sector laggard was Construction, followed by Industrial Goods and Consumer Products & Services.
• Key movers include: Fortum (+15.7%) and Nokia (+3.0%); Google announced a EUR 13bln minimum investment in Finnish AI; Inditex, H1 EBIT and net profit missed consensus; Beiersdorf (-1.8%), downgraded to sell at Deutsche Bank; Novartis (-0.3%), downgraded to hold at Deutsche Bank.
• US cash equities opened softer across the board, amid the aforementioned geopolitics. In terms of top stories: Signet Jewelers (+18.7%), EPS and revenue beat while raising its FY top-line guidance; Meta (+4.5%), releases AI agent Muse; Dow (+1.5%), considers leaving its USD 20bln Saudi chemicals venture.

FX

• G10s were mostly firmer against the USD. JPY was the slight outperformer, building on recent strength and after daring commentary from US Treasury Sec Bessent. The Loonie mildly lagged (but remained flat), after the US banned imports of some Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles.
• DXY was mildly pressured and held towards the bottom end of a 98.59 to 98.86 range. The Dollar has been hampered by the broadly stronger JPY today, and failed to benefit from higher yields – potentially as traders begin to price in fiscal-related fears surrounding higher borrowing costs.
• JPY was bid throughout the session. Much of the strength is a continuation of recent action given the hawkish BoJ repricing. Moreover, US Treasury Sec Bessent stated that “I am the house now”, and has good insight into what Japanese policymakers and the BoJ will do. He provided a final warning that he has asymmetric information. The strong commentary from Bessent, along with hawkish BoJ speak over the past couple of weeks, will keep JPY vigilantes on the sidelines, at least for now. However, once we get past the string of policy decisions next week – markets may begin to shift their attention back to energy dynamics, which JPY is particularly sensitive to. USD/JPY traded within a 152.93-154.01 range, and will likely begin to eye 152.00 to the downside.
• RBI may conduct USD/INR buy-sell swap operations this month, traders suggest.

FIXED INCOME

• Gilts gapped lower at the open, unsurprisingly, as they caught up to the late-Tuesday move in energy. Today, as energy continued to climb and Brent eclipsed USD 100/bbl, further downside was seen, taking Gilts to an 85.34 low, marking a new WTD base. Focus also remains on the UK fiscal situation, as participants remain concerned about the increasing pressure on the government's books that recent price action has caused, and what Burnham/Healey may do to plug the gap.
• Bunds also in the red throughout the day. Initially, this was modest and somewhat rangebound in APAC/early-European action. However, as oil climbed and TTF hit new contract highs, further EGB pressure occurred, lifting short-term yields to multi-year highs. For Bunds, to a 121.39 low, a fresh WTD base.
• USTs in the red, but comparably contained. In a 107-06 to 107-13+ band, having taken out a double-bottom at 107-08 in the European morning. We continue to await the Treasury buyback announcement, the first after the move to at least double the long-end operations from the current USD 2bln maximum. Given the “at least” language and the commentary from Secretary Bessent that operations could be above the implied USD 4bln level if required, we are attentive to the announced size, any scheduling update, and accompanying commentary the Treasury may choose to provide.
• Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) files to sell USD-denominated debt; 5-parter.
• FedEx (FDX) files to sell USD-denominated 10-year noted.
• Amazon (AMZN) set size on debut sterling bond sale at GBP 4.25bln.
• Alcoa (AA) files to sell USD 2.6bln senior unsecured noted due 2034 and 2036 with the funds to finance the South32 deal.
• Uber (UBER) announces EUR 4.5bln bond sale.
• Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly seeking to raise at least GBP 3bln through its first Sterling bond sale.
• Germany sold EUR 4.201bln vs exp. 5.5bln 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.47x (prev. 1.15x), average yield 3.39% (prev. 3.26%), retention 23.62% (prev. 37.2%).
• Uber (UBER) is looking to raise around EUR 4bln from its EUR bond sale.
• Amazon (AMZN) begins the sale of its four-part Sterling bond. Guidance:. 3-year: +70bps to Gilts. 6-year: +90bps to Gilts. 12-year: +105bps to Gilts. 19-year: +110bps to Gilts.
• Uber (UBER) begins the sale of a five-part Euro bond offering. Guidance:. 3-year: +75-80bps to MS. 6-year: +110-115bps to MS. 8-year: +130-135bps to MS. 12-year: +155-160bps to MS. 20-year: +200bps to MS.
• FedEx (FDX) is to sell EUR denominated 4- and 8-year noted. 4-year note, guidance seen at +105bps to MS. 8-year note, guidance seen at +145bps to MS.

COMMODITIES

• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures edged higher throughout the session as elevated Middle Eastern tensions continued to underpin the complex, with no signs of any tangible diplomacy. Brent briefly topped USD 100/bbl for the first time since late July as supply concerns remained in focus after US forces destroyed five Iranian crude tankers tied to the IRGC, prompting further Iranian retaliation, alongside continued Saudi-Houthi hostilities. WTI traded towards the upper end of a USD 93.76-96.05/bbl range, while Brent similarly resided towards the top of its USD 98.80-100.95/bbl band.
• Dutch TTF extended its recent upside as Middle Eastern supply risks remained elevated alongside focus on winter heating demand. TTF rose almost 4%, briefly topping EUR 79/MWh from a base below EUR 77/MWh and remained close to EUR 78/MWh.
• Precious Metals were firmer amid a weaker Dollar, in spite of higher oil prices, allowing some geopolitical risk premium to be baked in. Spot gold found support around its 100 DMA (USD 4,343/oz) and rebounded from a USD 4,341/oz low towards the upper end of its USD 4,341-4,434/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 4,443/oz peak. Spot silver similarly found support near yesterday's low and advanced from USD 65.52/oz to north of its 100 DMA (USD 67.15/oz), reaching a USD 67.84/oz peak.
• Base Metals evenutally turned mostly firmer , with copper initially subdued following recent record highs on the LME as elevated energy prices kept inflation and global growth concerns in focus. The complex later coat-tailed on the softer USD with 3M LME copper trading within a USD 14,596.50-14,757/t range.
• Turkish Energy Minister said that they are starting an oil exploration in the Western Black Sea in the coming days.
• CPC oil terminal on the Black Sea was reportedly attacked by drones overnight.
• Iraq reportedly seeks significant output quota increase during OPEC+ audits, wanting to target 6mln bbls/day, Bloomberg reported.

EUROPEAN DATA

• French Industrial Production (Jul MM) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%).
• Norwegian PPI (Aug YY) 30.1% (Prev. 23.4%).

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• JPMorgan’s (JPM) Jamie Dimon to meet with UK Chancellor as bank taxes loom.
• German Government spokesperson on planned EU budget said we don't yet have viable basis for talks, figures need to come down.
• French PM Lecornu is considering plans to reduce the exceptional contribution imposed on very large companies, TF1 reported.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Pakistan is reportedly considering strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen under the “Makkah Pact” defense framework with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Kann's Kais reports; strikes may begin in the coming days and will be announced immediately after.
• Arabic sources reported intense clashes between mercenaries affiliated with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, reportedly following successive defeats by Houthi forces on various fronts in Yemen, SNN reported.
• There are signs the US is working to devise some means of striking Iran's nuclear sites, CNN reported.
• Surge in construction detected at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain site near the Natanz nuclear complex, i24 reported, citing new satellite imagery shows.
• Iran launched a drone at a tanker near Iraq, and at a tanker near the Emirates, reported i24's Stein.
• IRGC official warns that further US aggression against Iran could trigger more unprecedented Iranian responses, IRNA reported.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemns US attacks on Iranian vessels and said Tehran’s strikes on US military bases and interception of American vessels constitute legitimate self-defence under international law.
• The Vienna meeting called on Iran to engage seriously without conditions in confidence-building talks, Al Jazeera reported citing a US-European draft resolution.
• Iran's MP said there is a "possibility of re-examining the plan to withdraw from the NPT in the parliament", ILNA reported.
• Israel orders British consulate in East Jerusalem to shut in 30 days.
• US Pentagon is said to be considering scenarios involving US Marine amphibious landings on strategic uninhabited Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz to establish observation and logistical bases and secure commercial shipping, Eram News sources say.
• US official said in total, in the past week, the US has attacked and destroyed 10 Iranian oil tankers, i24 news reported.
• UK PM Burnham appears to rule out cutting welfare to fund defence spending, The Guardian reported; We plan further measures on cost of living this year.
• IRGC spokesperson said if the enemy hits 2 of our targets, we will attack 20 targets, Fars reported.
• UKMTO noted of an incident 28NM of south-east of Al-Faw, Iraq; in reference to an incident seen at 0230 UTC.
• Iranian IRGC spokesperson said ships passing through the restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz will face sanctions, including suspension of maritime, insurance and support services, with the restricted zone extension, Fars reported. "The embargoed zone starts almost from Chabahar and continues to part of the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea.".
• Pakistan’s Defence Minister said Islamabad is seeking to create conditions that help reduce tensions in the region, Al Jazeera reported.
• Two port officials say a Panama-flagged tanker carrying 2mln barrels of Iraqi fuel oil was hit by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters; tanker is named "New Andros", and no casualties were reported.
• US CENTCOM said that no US Navy warships have been struck, denying IRGC claims.
• UKMTO has received a report from a third-party of an incident 24NM northwest of Port Rashid, UAE; incident occurred at 02:48 UTC. The Master of a tanker has reported sighting a vessel listing while at anchor, possibly indicating water ingress following an attack from an unknown projectile.
• UKMTO has received a report involving several merchant vessels in the Northern Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; in reference to an update from 8th of September at 22:15 UTC.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf reiterates that US energy assets in the region will be the next target, Tasnim reported.
• Saudi's Civil Defence posted "An alert has been issued by the National Early Warning Platform for Emergencies in Khamis Mushait Governorate to warn of a danger"; danger has since passed.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Presidents Putin and Trump did not discuss the possibility of holding a new meeting at APEC, but there is an understanding that such a meeting could take place, Interfax reported.
• Russia's Kremlin said they hope US-mediated talks with Ukraine will resume soon.
• Russia's Kremlin said that Europeans are harming themselves by buying gas on the spot market at a higher price than Russian gas. Europe is in a difficult situation and will not be able to replenish its gas storage by winter. Nord Stream pipeline could be brought back online instantly.
• Ukraine Drone Forces Commander said that Ukraine hit military vessels at Russia’s Novorossiysk naval base.

NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS

• Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan will strengthen and diversify energy supplies, including oil, while boosting cooperation on critical minerals and supply-chain resilience with the US, Australia and other partners. Discussed energy supply with the US Commerce Secretary.

NORTH AMERICAN DATA

• US Redbook (Sep/05 YY) 8.3% (Prev. 9.6%).
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 12K (Prev. 11.75K).
• US MBA Purchase Index (Sep/04) 157.5 (Prev. 157.8).
• US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (Sep/04) 687.3 (Prev. 732.6).
• US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep/04) 6.85% (Prev. 6.79%).
• US MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep/04) -2.7% (Prev. 0.8%).
• US MBA Mortgage Market Index (Sep/04) 240.6 (Prev. 247.3).

EM

• Polish Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 3.75% vs. Exp. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%).
• Mexican Core CPI (Aug YY) 3.88% vs. Exp. 3.93% (Prev. 3.95%).
• Mexican CPI (Aug YY) 3.26% vs. Exp. 3.30% (Prev. 3.12%).
• Mexican CPI (Aug MM) 0.20% vs. Exp. 0.25% (Prev. 0.03%).
• Mexican Core CPI (Aug MM) 0.16% vs. Exp. 0.20% (Prev. 0.23%).
• CNB Vice Governor Zamrazilova said there are no reasons for a rate change this month but sees upside risks to inflation, not committing to any future move.