Daily US Equity Opening News - TSM Q2 revenue up +36%; MGM in talks with People Inc

DAY AHEAD:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.4%, NQ -1.2%, YM -0.2%, RUT -0.4%
BROKER MOVES: SHOP upgraded at Jefferies; PZZA downgraded at BofA. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Mag-7, SKHY, MGM, SHOP, Samsung. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: LLY. For the full list, click here.
EVENTS: At least 25 leaders will meet in Paris on 13th July to strengthen support for Ukraine; the 37-country Coalition of the Willing will discuss air defence, Patriot missile production, an anti-ballistic system and security guarantees.
DATA: The week’s data slate starts off on a quiet note; the US monthly budget statement for June will be released in the afternoon (prev. USD 293bln).
CENTRAL BANKS: On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Waller (voter) will speak on the economic outlook at the NYABE. BoE’s Pill (hawk) will speak on financial regulation, innovation and growth.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: US inflation and retail sales data, Fed Chair Warsh’s dual testimony to lawmakers, a BoC policy announcement, China activity data, UK GDP. US corporate earnings season begins, with big financials set to report this week. Notable corporates reporting this week include: JPMorgan (JPM), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLX), Goldman Sachs (GS), Prologis (PLD), Progressive (PGR), Abbott (ABT), BlackRock (BLK), Wells Fargo (WFC), Travelers (TRV), United Airlines (UAL), Alcoa (AA).
Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly US earnings estimates.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

US-Iran - The US launched renewed strikes on Iran to curb attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM said. Iranian media confirmed strikes near Sirik, Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Iran officials declared recent diplomacy futile, and targeted US facilities across Gulf states, while Qatar and the UAE also faced Iranian attacks. Iran said it has again ‘closed the Strait’, though some vessels continued crossing. Six commodity carriers reportedly crossed the Strait on Sunday with transponders switched off, according to Kpler data; secret passages outnumbered observable crossings for three consecutive days as visible shipping traffic declined. Kpler's Bakr posted that "US has directly struck Kharg Island oil infrastructure (western jetty pumping station + pipelines) — first confirmed hit on Iran’s core export terminal; fires visible via satellite."
Ukraine-Russia - Ukraine struck the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region on the weekend, approximately 760km from Moscow, causing a fire. It also attacked 10 tankers and four ferries in the Sea of Azov. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin on Sunday reported that more than 350 drones flew towards the Moscow region.

TECH

TSMC (TSM) - TSMC reported Q2 revenue +36% Y/Y at TWD 1.27tln (exp. TWD 1.26tln), with June revenue rising +67.9% Y/Y to TWD 442.68bln.
SK Hynix (SKHY) - SK Hynix shares fell more than 15% overnight despite the chipmaker’s successful Nasdaq ADR debut last week, as investors shifted focus to near-term earnings concerns, and questions over the durability of the AI memory boom. Elsewhere, CEO Kwak Noh-jung said 2027 will be the worst year in the memory industry’s history from a supply perspective, with customer demand expected to exceed production capacity beyond 2030, Reuters reports. Elsewhere, Korea Investment & Securities forecast SK Hynix’s Q2 operating profit at KRW 60.4tln vs the market consensus of KRW 65tln. Analysts say the miss is likely due to Hynix’s higher HBM revenue mix vs peers, which is likely to result in a lower ASP increase than the market average.
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), Tesla (TSLA) - Samsung has begun preparations to manufacture Tesla’s AI5 chip using its 2nm process at its Texas plant, according to Yonhap. The chip is designed to power Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, Optimus robots and AI data centres, and has already completed its tape-out process. Initial operations are expected to begin later this year ahead of mass production in 2027.
OpenAI, Apple (AAPL) - Apple sued OpenAI and two employees in California, alleging theft of confidential hardware designs and information about unreleased technologies. Apple claimed OpenAI used former and current employees as it develops AI devices, describing broader misconduct by senior leadership. OpenAI denied interest in competitors’ trade secrets.
OpenAI - OpenAI safety systems head Johannes Heidecke will leave following a reorganisation integrating safety and research teams, Wired reports.
Shopify (SHOP) - Upgraded at Jefferies to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 160 PT (prev. 140). Third-party data indicates Shopify's fiscal Q2 results will beat consensus estimates. In addition, Jefferies believes Shopify's newly announced partner program changes should positively impact its near-term growth while lowering costs. The company is also likely to announce a price increase, which could bring upside to 2027 estimates.

COMMUNICATIONS

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Oregon’s attorney general withdrew a court motion seeking to delay Paramount’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros., Reuters reports. The Oregon Department of Justice said Paramount had refused to comply with an investigative demand and that the state withdrew the motion while considering its next steps.
Meta Platforms (META) - Meta’s AI detector failed to identify 55% of cropped images generated by its Muse Image model, Reuters found. It detected all 40 originals, but often lost the Content Seal watermark after heavy cropping. Meta said the tool remains a preview, while experts noted cropping, resizing, compression and editing can weaken watermark-based detection. Meanwhile, Meta is to spend USD 40bln more on its Louisiana data centre, resulting in a total of over USD 50bln in the region. Louisiana will expand to 5GW of compute capacity,
AT&T (T) - AT&T agreed to pay USD 184.1mln to settle claims it underpaid pensions to about 300K current and former employees, Reuters reports. The deal includes USD 149.1mln in additional benefits, while lawyers may seek up to USD 35mln. AT&T denied wrongdoing and said it settled to avoid prolonged litigation. The proposed settlement still requires judicial approval.
Disney (DIS) - Disney’s live-action Moana remake opened to USD 43mln domestically (exp. USD 60-65mln) and USD 52mln overseas for a global debut of USD 95mln (exp. USD 140mln), vs a USD 250mln production budget, Variety reports. The result ranks among the weakest openings for Disney’s live-action remakes and could result in losses of around USD 100mln in its theatrical run.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

MGM Resorts (MGM) - MGM Resorts is negotiating a potential deal with Barry Diller’s People Inc. after receiving a takeover offer, according to the WSJ. MGM formed a special board committee and appointed advisers to assess the proposal, which it believes undervalues the company. People Inc. already owns about 26% of MGM Resorts.
Ford (F) - Ford of Canada and Unifor reached a tentative three-year national labour agreement covering more than 5,000 unionised employees in Canada. The deal remains subject to ratification by Ford-Unifor members, and Ford of Canada will not disclose its terms during the ratification process.
Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Bloomberg writes that Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume faces mounting pressure after failing to win supervisory board backing for his restructuring plan on Thursday, after 12 of 19 board members rejected it, and the works council issuing an ultimatum demanding he address the workforce directly, adding that there has been “a massive loss of trust” in him and that “enough is now enough.” Blume said “smarter solutions” exist other than closing factories, and highlighted 20% average cost reductions at German plants last year, Bild reports; he added that VW must continue cutting costs and streamline models.
Hyundai Motor (HYMPY) - Hyundai workers began a three-day partial strike demanding larger bonuses, higher pay and job guarantees before AI and Atlas robot deployment. The union seeks a bonus tied to 30% of prior-year net profit, retirement at 65 and increased regular bonuses; Hyundai’s offer included KRW 89K higher base pay, a lump sum, 350% bonus and 15 shares.
Prediction Markets - Bloomberg notes that Americans betting on the World Cup via prediction markets may face a lighter tax burden than those using sportsbooks, as prediction market contracts are structured as investments and may qualify for investment-related tax breaks rather than being subject to gambling tax rules.
Nio (NIO) - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 7 PT. Goldman expects Nio to post among the fastest volume growth in its coverage with a "premium" margin profile. The company should see a "strong" profit and free cash flow turnaround in 2026. Goldman believes Nio's "successful turnaround" with the launch of new ES8 and ES9, in addition to a strengthening position in the premium new energy vehicle market, creates a "higher competitive moat and is more difficult to displace by competitors".

FINANCIALS

Corporate Bonds - Primary dealers have accumulated an aggregate net-short position in corporate bonds of approximately USD 4bln this year, the first such instance in data going back to 1998, according to Crisil Coalition Greenwich analysis of Fed data, cited by Bloomberg. Dealers are short roughly USD 13.7bln of bonds maturing in five years or more, partially offset by a USD 9.66bln long position in shorter-dated debt, with the skew toward the long end.
Apollo (APO) - Apollo-backed Brightspeed plans to raise fresh capital in 2026 via asset-backed financing secured by subscription cash flow and position itself for a sale, WSJ reports. The broadband provider has raised nearly USD 5.9bln over two years, but is consuming cash because of heavy fibre-network capex.
Brookfield (BAM) - Brookfield is in exclusive talks to acquire a 10% stake in Hudson Square Properties in Manhattan, valuing the 13-building, 6.2mln sqft portfolio at USD 3.5bln, WSJ reports. Brookfield would also become a long-term operating partner, joining existing partners Trinity Church and Norges Bank Investment Management. WSJ adds that AI and tech firms have driven strong leasing demand in the area, with asking rents rising nearly 20% recently.
Mastercard (MA) - Mastercard is exploring the sale of a majority stake in its UK payments unit, Vocalink, back to British banks amid concerns over a critical piece of the UK's payments infrastructure being under US ownership, FT reports.
American Express (AXP) - Upgraded at JPMorgan to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 400 PT (prev. 328). The company trades at a slight premium to the group, but this is warranted given the defensive nature of its revenues. The firm said American Express' high-income customer base is "relatively shielded" from the Middle East crisis. In a backdrop of renewed geopolitical risk and an uneven consumer, American Express offers investors exposure to the "most insulated cohort in consumer finance."
First Hawaiian (FHB), TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) - Companies agreed to an all-stock merger where First Hawaiian will acquire TriCo, creating a bank with approximately USD 34bln in assets. TriCo shareholders will receive 2.095 First Hawaiian shares per share (implied value USD 63.12/shr). The deal is expected to close by year-end 2026, with no expected branch closures.

MATERIALS

BASF (BASFY) - BASF contained a nitric acid leak at its main German plant on Saturday, which sent a chemical cloud over the facility before being hosed down by firefighters, Bloomberg reports. The affected unit was shut down, the chemical was captured in a containment vessel and no injuries were reported. Elsewhere, BASF is reportedly considering a partial IPO of its agricultural business, targeting a valuation of between EUR 20-30bln, according to Handelsblatt.
Regis Resources (RGRNF), Vault Minerals (REDLF), Genesis Minerals (GSISF) - Regis will not match Genesis’ superior proposal for Vault Minerals, saying required terms failed its value and return thresholds. Regis expects Vault to terminate their agreement, triggering an approximately AUD 50.7mln break fee.
Akzo Nobel (AKZOY), Nippon Paint (NPPHY) - Nippon Paint submitted a EUR 7.5bln offer for Akzo Nobel’s decorative paints business, valuing the unit at approximately 12x 2026 EBITDA; Akzo’s management said the proposal significantly undervalues its decorative paints business and continues to recommend a merger with Axalta (AXTA). Nippon’s bid follows the collapse of a joint offer by Nippon and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) for the entirety of Akzo Nobel last month.

HEALTHCARE

Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Phase 3 FRONTIER4 interim data showed denecimig’s safety and efficacy were consistent across dosing regimens in 426 haemophilia A patients aged one year and older. Injection-site reactions were mild and transient, with no clinical evidence of neutralising antibodies.
GSK (GSK) - Reported positive interim results from the registrational Phase 2 AZUR-1 trial of Jemperli in patients with stage II/III dMMR/MSI-H locally advanced rectal cancer. The single-arm study met its primary endpoint, demonstrating a meaningful and durable clinical complete response rate at 12 months, supporting the potential for Jemperli to become the first immunotherapy that could eliminate or delay the need for chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery in certain patients.
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Announced that the US FDA has accepted a NDA for mezigdomide in combination with carfilzomib and dexamethasone in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Mezigdomide is an oral cereblon E3 ligase modulator, or CELMoD, for the treatment of multiple myeloma.
Biogen (BIIB), Eisai (ESAIY) - LEQEMBI’s once-weekly 500mg subcutaneous autoinjector showed efficacy and safety comparable with intravenous administration in early Alzheimer’s disease. Exposure was bioequivalent at 104% and consistent across body weights.
CVS Health (CVS) - The US Department of Health and Human Services' Office of Inspector General reported USD 674mln in settlements with Kaiser Permanente affiliates and CVS Health's Aetna related to allegations of inflated Medicare Advantage billing. The settlement was one of the agency's largest enforcement actions during the period, contributing to USD 5.56bln in expected recoveries and projected savings over six months.
Conmed (CNMD) - Conmed is weighing options, including a potential sale amid takeover interest from private equity firms, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

INDUSTRIALS

Babcock & Wilcox (BW) - Announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to USD 50mln of outstanding common stock. The company expects to begin repurchases following the filing of its 10-Q for Q2 26.
Boeing (BA) - Riyadh Air reportedly planning to purchase 25-30 additional Boeing jets, according to sources.
Boeing (BA), Ryanair (RYAAY) - A Ryanair Boeing 737 made an emergency landing in Thessaloniki after a right-engine issue and cabin decompression at 16,000 feet, the US NTSA said. Debris apparently dislodged a window, pulling a passenger’s head through the opening. The passenger survived and was met by emergency responders; the cause remains unclear.

ENERGY

China Crude Imports - Bloomberg says that China’s crude imports are expected to recover from a months-long slump as refiners snap up cheap Middle Eastern barrels. Energy Aspects forecasts seaborne and pipeline inflows returning to pre-war levels above 11mln BPD by November.
Pembina Pipeline (PBA) - Double upgraded at Wells Fargo to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight'. The firm said new oil egress could accelerate Western Canada Sedimentary Basin production growth, creating a "multi-year diluent demand tailwind" for Pembina. Wells believes the company now has one of the "longest growth runways" in midstream. Pembina can now grow at 7% annually through 2035, which is well above investor expectations, the firm argued.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Seven & i Holdings (SVNDY), SoftBank (SFTBY) - Seven & i Holdings is considering issuing several hundred billion yen of new shares to SoftBank and PayPay, signalling greater willingness to share control with strategic partners, Bloomberg reports.
Tobacco, Shopify (SHOP) - Shopify told merchants to remove all vape products from stores hosted on its platform, Reuters reports. The company cited changed legal restrictions on electronic nicotine delivery systems. The move followed pressure from US state and city law-enforcement authorities over widespread sales of illegal vapes through websites using Shopify’s services.

REAL ESTATE

Corporate Landlords - Bloomberg notes that US housing legislation enacted on 11th July bars institutional investors owning at least 350 homes from buying single-family properties, but includes numerous exemptions. The compromise follows President Trump’s call to exclude large investors and leaves major corporate landlords with opportunities to expand.

TRADE

China Critical Minerals - China is establishing a new Beijing-backed mining investment vehicle aimed at bolstering its grip on overseas mineral resources, as it pushes back against US and European efforts to curb its dominance of the critical minerals supply chain, Bloomberg reports.
US-Mexico - Mexican President Sheinbaum noted that the USDA estimates US imports of Mexican sugar will reach 1.15mln metric tons in the 2026-2027 period, a 512% increase from the prior cycle. The figure represents up to MXN 4.76bln for Mexican producers.

MACRO

US UAW Union - The DoJ launched a grand jury investigation into UAW President Shawn Fain over allegations he pressured a senior union official to secure benefits for his fiancée and her sister, Bloomberg reports. A federal grand jury has subpoenaed the union’s court-appointed monitor as part of the probe.
Japan - Japan has no immediate plans to change GPIF’s target asset allocations, though the government could encourage greater domestic investment within existing allowable deviation ranges, according to government sources cited by Reuters. One source said markets “reacted much more than we expected” to FinMin Katayama’s remarks, which were not intended to imply a formal allocation change.