Daily US Equity Opening News - AAPL loses EU DMA gatekeeper case; SSNLF starts SSD production for NVDA; MSFT replaces external AI models with MAI in Office; META tests super-sensing AI glasses; XOM sees liquids prices lifting Q2 earnings

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: NATO Summit continues in Ankara; US President Trump will participate in a working session, and deliver press conferences.
• DATA: In North America, US wholesale inventories for May are seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.6%); consumer credit for May will be published in the afternoon (prev. USD 20.73bln). Elsewhere, weekly MBA mortgage applications data will be released. After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q2 GDPnow tracking model (yesterday, the gauge was revised up to 1.4% from 1.2%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Meeting minutes from the FOMC’s June confab will be published (full preview below). In Europe, the NBP is expected to keep rates at 3.75%. Hungary’s central bank will publish meeting minutes.
• SUPPLY: US auctions USD 39bln of 10-year notes. Germany auctions EUR 6bln of 2036 Bunds. UK holds a GBP 1.5bln tender across 0.125% 2028 and 4.75% 2030 Treasury Gilts.
• ENERGY: Weekly DoE energy inventories are due today; after the close on Tuesday, API weekly energy inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a smaller than expected draw of -0.399mln bbls (exp. -1.5mln), Cushing stocks drew down by -0.069mln bbls, distillates saw a surprise draw of -1.801mln bbls (exp. +1mln), while gasoline stocks saw a larger than expected draw of -2.929mln bbls (exp. -1.55mln).
• PREVIEW - FOMC MINUTES (19:30BST/14:30EDT): The June FOMC minutes will be scrutinised for further insight into policymakers’ appetite for additional rate hikes and the thinking behind the Committee’s hawkish shift at last month’s meeting. The minutes are an account of the June 17th meeting and therefore will not reflect subsequent developments, including the softer-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report or Chair Warsh’s appearance at the ECB’s Sintra Forum.
• Newsquawk’s full FOMC minutes preview can be accessed here.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - The US military launched strikes against Iran in response to alleged Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command said the strikes aimed to impose costs for attacks on commercial shipping. Iranian media said six projectiles hit the Taheroui pier area in Sirik, southern Iran. The Joint Maritime Information Centre raised the threat level for ships crossing Hormuz to “severe.” Speaking at the NATO events, President Trump said the US attacked Iran “very powerfully” overnight in response to Iranian rocket attacks on ships, adding that the US has “wasted a lot of time” with Iran and that Iran “does not know what it is doing.”
• Iran Oil Sales - The US Treasury revoked its authorisation of Iranian oil sales after attacks on an LNG tanker, an oil supertanker and a third vessel in or near the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver, which had been in place through 21st August following a US-Iran interim deal, allowed Iranian crude imports to the US and dollar-denominated payments to Tehran. Vortexa data indicated that approximately 63mln barrels of Iranian oil on tankers have been left in limbo after the US revoked the sanctions waiver in retaliation for Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports note that the oil, spread across the Persian Gulf and Asian waters, will be difficult to sell, depriving Tehran of a key revenue source. China’s independent refiners remain one of the few potential buyers, though steep discounts would likely be required.
• Critical Minerals - The US Defence Logistics Agency is seeking offers for approximately 36mln pounds of battery-grade lithium carbonate over five years in a contract worth up to USD 300mln, according to a tender document dated 2nd July, as the Pentagon builds strategic stockpiles of critical minerals.

TRADE:

• US-China - China’s state-owned Cofco Corp. booked at least another five cargoes of US soybeans overnight for loading mainly between September and October, Bloomberg reports. It follows at least six cargoes booked earlier in the week, as agricultural trade between the US and China gathers pace.

MACRO:

• RBNZ - New Zealand’s central bank raised its benchmark rate by 25bps to 2.5%, its first increase since 2023, citing lingering inflation pressures from the Iran war energy price shock. RBNZ expects annual headline inflation to have peaked at 3.9% in Q2 2026, projecting a decline to 3.3% in Q3. The decision was reached by consensus, but analysts at Westpac characterised the tone as dovish, with the committee appearing comfortable with an end-2026 OCR in the 2.75-3.0% range, broadly in line with May forecasts. A key rationale was preventing an unintended easing of financial conditions. Westpac expects follow-up 25bp hikes in September and December 2026, with a peak OCR of 4.0% in September 2027.
• Japan, BoJ - Japan’s government tweaked language in its annual policy agenda draft to add a reference to inflation, calling for appropriate monetary policy that contributes to stable price increases, Bloomberg notes. The change was aimed at reducing market concerns that the Takaichi administration is pressuring the BoJ to slow rate hikes, though analysts said the adjustment was unlikely to shift market perceptions. Elsewhere, the economy watchers survey eased to 44.0 (exp. 44.6, prev. 43.6), while the outlook rose to 45.7 (prev. 40.7).
• RBA - RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said the world is likely to face more frequent supply shocks, reinforcing the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation. Hunter warned that inflation may respond more strongly if shocks occur while underlying inflation is already elevated, raising the risk of expectations becoming untethered.
• China Bonds - China’s 10yr sovereign bond auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 7.23x, a record high according to Bloomberg’s data, which goes back to 2004. The average yield came in at 1.7249%.
• UK Labour Market - REC/KPMG data suggested that UK hiring fell only marginally in June, with permanent placements returning to pre-Iran war levels and temporary staff demand rising at its fastest pace since 2023; starting salaries rose at the fastest pace since January, though below the historical average.
• Frontier Markets - S&P Dow Jones Indices placed Turkey on a watchlist for a potential downgrade to frontier-market status, citing market accessibility challenges, stock ownership transparency concerns and regulatory actions by Turkish authorities; the move follows a similar warning by MSCI. S&P also signalled Indonesia could lose its emerging-market status if concerns over its equities market persist; the warning deepens investor scepticism over whether recent reforms have adequately addressed long-standing concerns about transparency, liquidity and limited free float in some of Indonesia’s largest companies.

TECH:

• US Semiconductor Workers - A skilled labour shortfall in the US semiconductor industry is projected to reach 157K full-time workers by 2030, threatening to delay construction of new chip plants backed by the 2022 Chips and Science Act, according to a study by McKinsey, SEMI and the National Science Foundation. The deficit is most acute in Texas, California, Arizona, New York and Ohio, with 74% of unfilled roles expected to be in manufacturing and 60% in engineering.
• Apple (AAPL) - The EU General Court dismissed Apple’s legal challenges to its designation as a gatekeeper under the Digital Markets Act in relation to the App Store and iOS, confirming the European Commission’s September 2023 decision. The court also ruled actions concerning the iMessage service inadmissible, finding that iMessage’s classification as a core platform service does not by itself produce binding legal effects as it has not been listed in a designation decision.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung has begun mass production of its PM1763 enterprise solid-state drive for use in Nvidia’s (NVDA) upcoming Vera Rubin platform. The drive, powered by Samsung’s latest V-NAND flash and a 4-nanometer controller, delivers read and write speeds more than twice those of its predecessor and features liquid cooling.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung will host its Galaxy Unpacked event in London on 22nd July, where it is expected to unveil the Galaxy Z Fold 8 alongside other foldable phones and wearables, ahead of Apple’s (AAPL) planned folding iPhone launch.
• Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft is replacing OpenAI and Anthropic models with its internally built MAI models in Excel and Outlook to reduce AI costs, according to a source cited by Bloomberg.
• OpenAI - OpenAI will release GPT-5.6 globally on Thursday after initially limiting its rollout to select partners following pressure from the Trump administration to stagger the release. The US government has since lifted restrictions, with OpenAI confirming the launch has received a green light from US government leadership. Separately, British Columbia is exploring legal action against OpenAI over its failure to alert authorities to threats made on ChatGPT before a February mass shooting in Tumbler Ridge. The province would pursue every available avenue to hold OpenAI and its decision-makers accountable, an official said.
• Anthropic - China’s MIIT issued a risk warning over potential security backdoors in the AI programming tool Claude Code.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF), Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) - Wolfspeed filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Navitas Semiconductor in the US District Court for Delaware. The suit alleges multiple Navitas products infringe Wolfspeed patents, including GaNFast, GaNSlim and GaNSafe GaN-based FETs, GeneSiC MOSFETs and SiCPAK modules.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Meta Platforms (META) - Meta is testing prototype “super sensing” AI glasses that continuously record audio and take photos every few seconds, allowing users to query or recall their day via AI, FT reports; execs are currently planning not to activate the LED indicator when super-sensing features are in use, making it harder for bystanders to know when they are being recorded, though those plans could change. Elsewhere, Meta launched Muse Image, its first new AI image-generation model since rebuilding its AI lab; the model is rolling out inside the Meta AI chatbot and across Instagram and WhatsApp, allowing users to generate or alter images via text prompts, with advertiser access to follow.
• GameStop (GME), eBay (EBAY) - GameStop shareholders approved all proposals at its 2026 Annual Meeting, including increasing authorised Class A common stock. The amendment received 68.7% of votes cast and gives GameStop capacity to issue common stock for strategic transactions, including its proposed acquisition of eBay. Shareholders also re-elected all five directors and approved executive compensation.
• T-Mobile (TMUS) - T-Mobile named Chris Sambar Chief Enterprise Officer, effective no later than 14th October 2026. Sambar joins from Public Storage (PSA), where he is Chief Operating Officer, and will lead T-Mobile’s SMB, enterprise and government businesses.

FINANCIALS:

• Anti-Money Laundering - The Fed proposed changes to anti-money laundering requirements for banks, calling for lenders to focus resources on higher-risk customers and activities. Fed Governor Michael Barr opposed the measure, citing concerns about a new “significant or systemic” standard with unknown effects. The proposal is subject to a 60-day public comment period.
• Private Credit - BlackRock Investment Institute head Jean Boivin said private credit is poised to play an even bigger role in financing AI infrastructure, as companies’ capital needs require borrowing across all available sources.
• BlackRock (BLK) - BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and Stonepeak are among parties evaluating bids for a USD 5bln Brazilian port owned by Trafigura and Mubadala Capital, Bloomberg reports citing sources. GIP is forming a consortium with Vale (VALE) and Gerdau, while Stonepeak is teaming with M Resources. Binding offers are expected by end of July.
• Fiserv (FISV) - Fiserv President Dhivya Suryadevara resigned weeks after being promoted to the role following the departure of CEO Mike Lyons. Suryadevara stepped down for “good reason” under her offer letter and will remain a non-executive officer through end of July 2026 to assist with the transition.

CONSUMER:

• Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Icahn Enterprises (IEP) - Jefferies (JEF) is gauging investor interest in raising approximately USD 5bln in debt to support Carl Icahn in a potential rival bid for Caesars, Bloomberg reports. Icahn has an offer of USD 33/share on the table, above the USD 31/share bid Caesars accepted from Tilman Fertitta in May. The go-shop period expires on 11th July.
• Estee Lauder (EL) - Estee Lauder expects to record cumulative restructuring and other charges of about USD 1.748bln before tax under its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan. The charges relate to initiatives approved from the restructuring programme’s inception through 30th June, with the programme expected to be substantially completed by the end of FY27.
• Coty (COTY), Kering (PPRUY) - Coty agreed to transition the Gucci Beauty licence back to Kering for about USD 400mln, ending the licence around one year early. Coty will operate Gucci Beauty through June 2027. It received USD 250mln at signing and will receive USD 150mln by 30th September 2027, with up to USD 30mln contingent.

ENERGY:

• Energy Inventories - API weekly energy inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a smaller than expected draw of -0.399mln bbls (exp. -1.5mln), Cushing stocks drew down by -0.069mln bbls, distillates saw a surprise draw of -1.801mln bbls (exp. +1mln), while gasoline stocks saw a larger than expected draw of -2.929mln bbls (exp. -1.55mln).
• Trans Mountain Corp. - Trans Mountain reached a settlement with oil shippers over tolling, tariffs and service-related matters. The resolution of the prolonged dispute over pipeline fees helps pave the way for a potential equity sale and the proposed new 1mln pipeline announced last week, Bloomberg reports.
• ExxonMobil (XOM) - Exxon said Q2 results will be affected by market factors, planned activities, seasonal demand patterns and Middle East-related disruptions. It expects higher liquids prices to lift earnings by USD 3.5-3.9bln versus Q1, while gas prices are expected to have an impact of USD -0.2bln to USD 0.2bln.
• TechnipFMC (FTI), Equinor (EQNR) - TechnipFMC was awarded multiple subsea contracts by Equinor for the Omega Sor, Brime, Tyrihans Nord and TWIN projects offshore Norway. The work covers subsea production systems, controls and rigid pipe installation. The contracts are valued at USD 250mln-500mln and were included in Q2 2026 inbound orders.
• Transocean (RIG) - Transocean director Chad Deaton purchased 35K shares on 2nd July for a total USD 173.3K.

INDUSTRIALS:

• SpaceX (SPCX) - SpaceX chief Elon Musk said Grok 4.5 will be made available to the public on Thursday. He described it as an Opus-class model that is faster, more token-efficient and lower cost.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Lockheed was awarded a USD 105mln Air Force task order for GPS modifications, and was also awarded a USD 502.38mln Army contract for post-production support services for Modernized Target Acquisition Designation Sight/Pilot Night Vision Sight systems for AH-64 aircraft.

MATERIALS:

• Critical Minerals - The US Defence Logistics Agency is seeking offers for approximately 36mln pounds of battery-grade lithium carbonate over five years in a contract worth up to USD 300mln, according to a tender document dated 2nd July, as the Pentagon builds strategic stockpiles of critical minerals.
• Teck Resources (TECK) - Canada’s Growth Fund will contribute up to CAD 400mln to Teck Resources’ Trail zinc-and-lead smelter in British Columbia, potentially doubling germanium and antimony production and adding gallium capacity for the first time. The investment is the first under PM Carney’s CAD 2bln Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund.
• BHP Group (BHP) - Workers at BHP’s Port Hedland iron ore terminal will stage an eight-hour strike on 16th July, unions said, following over six months of unsuccessful negotiations. Analysts say an eight-hour stoppage would have minimal market impact given China’s high port inventories, but extended action could cause meaningful supply disruptions.

HEALTHCARE:

• Weight Loss Drugs - Monthly GLP-1 drug sales growth in India slowed sharply to 2.3% in June from 12.1% in May and 58.4% in April, according to Pharmarack data, as initial demand following the March patent expiry of semaglutide plateaued. India is the first market to see widespread generics of the active ingredient used in Novo Nordisk A/S’s (NVO) Ozempic and Wegovy, with Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Eris Lifesciences, Alkem Laboratories and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries accounting for the largest share of generic GLP-1 sales.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) - AstraZeneca will license Sino Biopharmaceutical unit’s experimental COPD drug TQC3721, paying USD 200mln upfront; the deal gives AstraZeneca a global licence outside China, and rights to certain future development programmes.
• GSK (GSK) - Sino Bio’s China unit Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical also secured mainland China commercialisation rights for GSK’s respiratory drugs Trelegy Ellipta and Anoro Ellipta.