Daily US Equity Opening News - APO & ARES cap withdrawals at private credit funds; JEF draws possible takeover interest from SMFG

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.5%, NQ -0.5%, YM -0.5%, RUT -0.7%
DAY AHEAD: In energy, CERAWeek continues, with notable speakers today including: Aramco CEO Nasser, Shell (SHEL LN) CEO Sawan, Microsoft (MSFT) President Smith, ConocoPhillips (COP) CEO Lance, ExxonMobil (XOM) Vice President Ardill, and Iberdrola (IBE SM) CEO Blazquez. Afterhours, the API will release its gauge of weekly inventories. Hungary’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.25% on Tuesday, as Iran-related market turmoil clouds the inflation outlook ahead of April elections. On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Barr (voter; text expected, but no Q&A) will give remarks today; last week, Barr was the sole dissenter to the proposal to ease bank capital rules, calling the reductions unnecessary and unwise; he supported some technical changes, but said weakening the US approach to Basel III could trigger a race to the bottom in standards and harm the global financial system. BoE’s Pill will speak at a conference; ECB’s Cipollone will give introductory remarks on the digital Euro; ECB’s Nagel is due to speak; ECB’s chief economist Lane will deliver remarks at an ECB conference on forecasting techniques; SNB’s Schlegel will also speak; RBNZ’s Conway to speak on the real cost of living. On today’s supply slate, the US Treasury will auction USD 69bln of 2yr notes.
BROKER MOVES: CRWV upgraded at BofA; RL upgraded at Citi. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: APO, JEF, JHG, SFD, CNM, CNXC, RL, CRWV. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: MSFT, AMGN, AMZN, JPM, LLY, META, QCOM. For the full list, click here.

NEWS:

IRAN

Iran Negotiating - Al Arabiya, citing Yedioth Ahronoth and unnamed sources, reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi secretly told US envoy Witkoff that Supreme Leader Khamenei had agreed to negotiate with the US and reach a deal.
Energy Infrastructure Strikes - Strikes reportedly hit gas facilities in central Iran on Tuesday, with Fars reporting damage to a gas company’s offices and a pressure reduction station in Isfahan amid US-Israeli strikes, while there were also reports of a projectile strike on a pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr. The reported strikes follow President Trump’s pledge on Monday to halt attacks against Iranian energy and power infrastructure for five days, following apparently positive talks with Iran, which many in Tehran have denied took place.
Gulf States - Gulf states are moving closer to joining the fight against Iran, taking tougher steps on basing and finances after attacks disrupted their economies and raised the risk of Tehran gaining long-term leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reports. The moves support US airstrikes and pressure Iran’s finances, though they stop short of open military participation.
Japan Energy Intervention - Following similar reports on Monday, Bloomberg overnight reported that Japan’s Finance Ministry has asked Tokyo banks with oil trading operations for views on possible intervention in the crude oil futures market, citing sources, in an effort to ease pressure on oil and the JPY.
Chevron (CVX) - Chevron CEO said the oil futures market has not fully priced the supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure, arguing traders are relying on scant information and perception. He said physical supply is tighter than futures suggest, and warned that production restarts, inventory rebuilding and repairs to damaged facilities will take time.
Oil Trading - Bloomberg reports that crude futures saw a spike in selling about 15 minutes before President Trump’s Monday social media post that sent oil prices down as much as 14%. Contracts tied to at least 6mln barrels of Brent and WTI were sold in two minutes from 6:49am Eastern time vs an average 700k bbls in the same period over the previous five trading days.
Wheat - Surging diesel prices and tighter fuel supplies linked to the Middle East conflict are threatening South Africa’s winter planting season and production in sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest commercial wheat-growing industry, Bloomberg said. Australian wheat farmers are also reducing plantings as fertiliser supply concerns intensify; crop nutrients have become more expensive and harder to source globally.

TECH

Broadcom (AVGO) - Seeing supply chain constraints, including capacity limits at its manufacturing partner TSMC (TSM), due to the soaring demand for AI chips, Reuters reports. "We are seeing that TSMC is hitting (production capacity) limits," Natarajan Ramachandran, director of product marketing in Broadcom's Physical Layer Products division, said. "They will be increasing the capacity to 2027, but that has become a bottleneck, or that has kind of choked the supply chain in 2026."
Foreign-made Routers - The FCC banned imports of all new foreign-made consumer routers, citing security concerns and a White House review that found they could pose severe cybersecurity risks to US critical infrastructure, Reuters reports. Existing models are unaffected, and the order includes a Pentagon exemption for routers deemed not to pose unacceptable risks.
Nvidia (NVDA) - In talks to invest in AI startup Sarvam, according to MoneyControl; Sarvam in talks to raise USD 200-250mln.
SK Hynix (HXSCL) - An SK Hynix US listing could raise KRW 10-15tln (about USD 10bln) via new ADR issuance, Korea Economic Daily reports. The proceeds may be used for AI infrastructure, including a semiconductor cluster in Yongin and for expanding memory-chip capacity. Elsewhere, DigiTimes reports that SK Hynix has reportedly brought forward the ramp-up of its M15X DRAM plant in Cheongju, opening a second cleanroom and starting equipment move-in about two months ahead of schedule amid rising memory demand.
Firmus Technologies, Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia-backed Firmus appointed Lee Hatton, Christine Bartlett and Julie Shuttleworth as non-executive directors this month ahead of an expected IPO later this year, the company said.
Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) Q4 (CNY): Revenue 116.92bln (exp. 116.3bln). Adj. Net 6.35bln (exp. 5.78bln). In 2025, global smartphones reached 165.2mln units, smartphone revenue 186.4bln.
Concentrix (CNXC) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.61 (exp. 2.64), Revenue 2.5bln (exp. 2.49bln); sees Q2 adj. EPS at 2.57-2.69 (exp. 2.76) and Q2 revenue of 2.46-2.49bln (exp. 2.49bln). Backed FY26 EPS view of 11.48-12.07 (exp. 12.10) and FY26 revenue view of 10.04-11.18bln (exp. 10.17bln).
CoreWeave (CRWV) - Reinstated coverage at BofA with a 'Buy' rating (prev. neutral) and a USD 100 PT. Given sustained demand for AI compute, the company's proprietary software optimised for AI workloads and strategic alliances with top-tier AI-native companies, such as Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI, the firm believes CoreWeave is well-positioned to capture a share of the USD 79 billion AI infrastructure as a service market.
Microchip (MCHP) - Launched automotive HMI system-in-package; available at USD 9.12 each in 5k unit quantities.
Uber (UBER) - Plans to acquire Germany's Blacklane, according to Manager Magazin.

FINANCIALS

Private Credit, Big Banks - Private credit managers are facing pressure from investor withdrawals, software-sector weakness, high-profile defaults and redemption limits. The WSJ says banks such as JPMorgan (JPM) are exposed to both risks and opportunities as stress in private credit deepens; while they face risk from turmoil in private credit, they can also benefit by financing withdrawals, advising on restructurings, and picking up business as private credit managers come under pressure.
Ares (ARES) - Limited withdrawals from USD 10.7bln private credit fund, FT reports; it had capped redemptions from the Ares strategic Income fund at 5%.
Private Credit, Apollo Global Management (APO) - Apollo capped withdrawals from its Debt Solutions fund at 5% of outstanding shares after redemption requests reached 11.2%, Bloomberg reports. The fund said the move was consistent with its liquidity objectives, and expects to return about 45% of requested capital to redeeming investors. The USD 25bln non-traded private credit fund for retail investors is one of Apollo’s largest.
Private Credit, KKR & Co. (KKR) - Moody’s downgraded FS KKR Capital Corp., jointly run by Future Standard and KKR, to Ba1 from investment grade, citing continued asset quality challenges that hurt profitability and portfolio value relative to peers. The downgrade affects a USD 14bln private credit fund and may raise borrowing costs, Bloomberg said.
Jefferies (JEF) - SMFG is working on plans for a possible takeover of Jefferies, FT reports. SMFG has tasked a team to be ready to act if Jefferies’ falling share price creates an opportunity. A move is not imminent, and there is no certainty that Jefferies executives would be willing to sell, the report added. SMFG was later said to have no immediate plan to take over Jefferies.
Janus Henderson (JHG) - Trian and General Catalyst agree to increase merger consideration to USD 52.00 per share in cash for Janus Henderson Group.
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) - Agreed to acquire Basis Multifamily Finance’s agency lending business, including its team, mortgage servicing rights and access to Fannie Mae DUS and Freddie Mac Optigo programmes. The companies also entered a strategic partnership. The deal is subject to customary conditions and approvals from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Banca Monte dei Paschi (BMPS) - Monte Paschi’s board will continue reviewing potential steps regarding CEO Luigi Lovaglio on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Directors on Monday discussed whether he can remain after he agreed to seek another term despite the lender’s plan to replace him, and requested a legal assessment before adjourning.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Tesla (TSLA) - Updated Model 3 delivery time expectations, now sees 3-5 weeks.
Alibaba (BABA) - Unveiled its next-generation XuanTie C950 5-nanometer processor, a 3.2 GHz server chip based on RISC-V architecture, as it steps up efforts in agentic AI. Chinese media said the chip is more than three times faster than the XuanTie C920. Alibaba said the XuanTie series targets high-performance cloud systems and agentic AI.
Estee Lauder (EL) - In talks over a potential merger with Spain’s Puig, the owner of Rabanne and Jean Paul Gaultier, in a deal that could create a USD 40bln beauty group, FT reports. Estee confirmed the discussions and said talks are ongoing, with no guarantee that a deal will be reached. Puig has a market value of about USD 10bln and owns brands including Carolina Herrera and Charlotte Tilbury; it reported revenue of more than EUR 5bln in 2025.
European Autos - European new-car registrations rose 1.7% Y/Y in February to 979,321 units (vs prev. -3.5% Y/Y in January) as buyers shifted toward EVs, supported by new subsidies and more affordable models. Sales increased in Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK, offsetting a near 15% decline in France, ACEA said. Tesla’s (TSLA) registrations rose 11.8%, ending a 13-month fall, while BYD’s (BYDDY) more than doubled, and both held 1.8% share. Volkswagen (VWAGY) and Stellantis (STLA) gained, Renault (RNLSY) fell, and EU electrified-car registrations reached 67% of total, Reuters said.
Ralph Lauren (RL) - Upgraded at Citi to' Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 400 PT (prev. 360). The firm expects the company to report a fiscal Q4 beat and says the year YTD share selloff offers an "attractive buying opportunity." Ralph Lauren should see continued momentum in fiscal 2027. Citi thinks Ralph's efforts to "elevate the brand have driven strong performance", while its higher-income consumer should be able to handle the macro volatility.
BMW (BMWKY) - Recalling 179,527 vehicles in China over improperly routed air-conditioning wiring harnesses that could be damaged during air-filter replacement and, in extreme cases, cause a short circuit and fire. The recall covers domestically produced and imported 5 Series, 7 Series and M5 models. BMW will inspect, re-secure or replace affected harnesses free of charge.
Ford (F) - NHTSA said Ford is recalling around 255k US vehicles.
Global Winemakers - China’s crackdown on drinking at official events is hurting the global wine trade, WSJ reports. President Xi’s stance is a stricter anti-extravagance push that curbs alcohol at official events, discouraging banquet-driven consumption, the article notes. Treasury Wine Estates said in December it had excess wine worth about USD 150mln in distributor warehouses in China. Grace Vineyards, a family-run Chinese winery, was unprofitable last year as its business declined.

ENERGY

Barclays upgrades the US Energy sector to Neutral from Negative; upgraded US Materials sector to Neutral from Negative.
Alaska Output - White House National Energy Dominance Council’s Jarrod Agen said the Trump administration has discussed increasing Alaska oil output with oil companies, including production from the National Petroleum Reserve, Bloomberg reports. Agen said the issue came up during meetings at CERAWeek.
Valero Energy (VLO) - Valero responded to a fire at a diesel hydrotreater at its Port Arthur refinery in Texas (380k BPD capacity). The unit suffered severe damage. The fire was near the fluid catalytic cracker, and part of the refinery was shut down, according to reports; Bloomberg said no decision had been made on a full plant shutdown.
Equinor (EQNR) - Seeking to expand its US shale-gas business as it reshapes its global portfolio, Bloomberg reports; the company is primarily looking in the Marcellus area for opportunities that would build on its existing base and add longevity to the portfolio.
BP (BP) - Locked out ~800 refinery workers in Indiana after contract talks stalled, with the union alleging unfair labor practices and urging negotiations to resume, Reuters reports.

INDUSTRIALS

FedEx (FDX) - Reportedly launches same day delivery with Onerail, according to CNBC.
Leonardo (DRS) - Selected for the US military’s Advanced Technology Support Program V, a multi-award IDIQ contract with total potential value of more than USD 25bln over 10 years. Leonardo DRS was one of 13 companies chosen and said the contract covers areas including advanced sensing, computing, integrated mission systems, quantum computing, nanoelectronics and additive manufacturing.
United Airlines (UAL) - To add over 250 planes in the next two years, the most by any airline.
Siemens (SIEGY) - Said AI is less of a threat to its software business than for some peers because industrial processes require very high standards and little room for error. Board member Neike said that this should support long-term demand for the company’s industrial software and AI products, Bloomberg reports.
Jacobs Solutions (J) - Jacobs CEO told CNBC that its data centre business is up 62% over the past year, and described it as a real growth engine. He also said he is seeing a lot of activity from the reshoring of manufacturing.
Core & Main (CNM) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. non-GAAP EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.33), Revenue 1.581bln (exp. 1.59bln); sees FY26 revenue of 7.8-7.9bln (exp. 7.93bln).

HEALTHCARE

Bayer (BAYRY) - Activist investor Inclusive Capital Partners is seeking to sell about 8.5mln Bayer shares in a placing arranged by JPMorgan, according to terms seen by Bloomberg. The stake is worth about EUR 327mln, based on Bayer’s closing price on Monday.
Gilead (GILD) - Agreed to acquire privately held Ouro Medicines for around USD 1.7bln, adding clinical-stage BCMAxCD3 T-cell engager gamgertamig, for autoimmune diseases, to its inflammation portfolio. Gilead said gamgertamig has shown efficacy and a differentiated safety profile in Phase 1/2 studies in AIHA and ITP, has Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations, and is expected to enter registrational studies in 2027.

MATERIALS

Brazil Potash (GRO) - Brazil Potash said its Brazilian unit signed a Term of Commitment and Cooperation with the Mura Indigenous Council to establish a framework for joint action on sustainable territorial development and improving living conditions in indigenous communities in Amazonas.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Smithfield Foods (SFD) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.83 (exp. 0.67), Revenue 4.23bln (exp. 4.15bln); sees FY26 revenue up long-single digits.

COMMUNICATIONS

Nintendo (NTDOY) - Cutting Switch 2 production by more than 30% after demand for the USD 450 console missed expectations in the holiday season, especially in the US. The company plans to make 4mln units this quarter (down from an original 6mln), according to Bloomberg, and the lower output rate is set to continue in April.

MACRO

US Shutdown, DHS - Senators are nearing a deal to fund all of the Department of Homeland Security except the agency responsible for immigrant arrests and deportations, after a shutdown lasting more than a month, WSJ reports. Democrat Senator Schumer said both sides were in serious talks, while pressure has grown as airport security lines lengthen nationwide. Elsewhere, the US Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as homeland security secretary by a 54-45 vote; Trump nominated him after removing Kristi Noem.
China Exports - Some Chinese exporters are raising prices on goods including toys, yoga pants and medical catheters as fuel shortages linked to the Iran war increase raw-material and production costs. Price increases began last week and range from low single digits to the teens, according to five exporters interviewed by Bloomberg.
RBNZ - Governor Breman signalled policymakers will not rush to raise rates in response to the Middle East conflict, saying a short-lived disruption and temporary rise in petrol prices can be looked through if they are unlikely to affect medium-term inflation outcomes. Westpac said the RBNZ is sticking to its approach of looking through a short-term supply shock from the Iran war, with no OCR hikes likely in the next six months and cuts also unlikely during the assessment period. It said NZD weakness could alter the medium-term outlook and flagged the 8th April OCR Review as the next key update.

TRADE

EU-Australia - The EU and Australia agreed a free-trade deal, concluding almost a decade of negotiations, removing most bilateral tariffs and giving the EU greater access to Australian critical minerals. The EU will eliminate about 98% of duties on Australian goods exports, while Australia will remove more than 99% of tariffs on EU goods. The agreement was announced in Canberra by Australian Prime Minister Albanese and European Commission President von der Leyen. After adoption by the European Council, it must be signed by both sides and ratified by their parliaments before entering into force.