Daily US Equity Opening News - ARES fund sees Feb loss; APO & BX say portfolios remain sound; QCOM downgraded

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.9%, NQ -1.1%, YM -0.8%, RUT -1.3%
DAY AHEAD: In energy, the EIA will release weekly natgas storage data. On the speakers’ docket, Fed’s Miran (voter, dovish dissenter) to speak on the Fed’s Balance Sheet; Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter, dovish) will speak on the outlook; Fed’s Barr (voter, neutral) will speak on the economy; Fed’s Cook (voter, neutral) to give a speech on ‘Reflections on Financial Stability’; BoE’s Taylor (Dove) will speak at a macro conference; BoE’s Breeden (Neutral) to participate on a panel at Resolution Foundation; BoE’s Greene (Hawkish) will participate in a fireside chat; BoC’s Rogers to speak is scheduled to give remarks. In supply, the US will auction USD 44bln of 7yr notes.
BROKER MOVES: ADBE downgraded at William Blair; QCOM downgraded at Bernstein. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: ARES, JBLU, WS, MARA, NAVN, MLKN, QCOM, ADBE. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: AMD, NVDA, T, TER. For the full list, click here.

IRAN

War Duration - President Trump reportedly told associates he wants to avoid a prolonged war in Iran, and end the conflict in the coming weeks, WSJ reports. The report states he privately told advisers he sees it in its final stages, and urged them to follow the public four-to-six-week timeline. Trump said Iran is negotiating and wants a deal, but is afraid to say so. Trump rejected Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s idea to call for an Iranian uprising. Israeli media reported Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran by this coming Saturday, or next Saturday, even without a final agreement.
Iran - Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is said to be alive, according Channel 12; President Pezeshkian said all decision-makers are united on the war and its management under the guidance of the country’s Supreme Leader. Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US has failed in its war goals, including quick victory and regime change, and said Iran is not seeking war but wants a permanent end to the conflict and compensation for destruction. He said there are no talks with the US, although messages are being exchanged via mediators, and later said Iran’s current policy is to continue resistance while ruling out negotiations and a ceasefire without guarantees. Iran confirmed it is drafting a law to impose Strait of Hormuz transit tolls.
Oil Prices - Trump administration officials are examining how oil prices rising as high as USD 200/bbl could affect the economy, as part of contingency planning for possible fallout from the Iran war, according to Bloomberg citing sources. The assessment is part of routine analysis during periods of strain and is not a prediction, sources said.
US LNG - Asian and European LNG buyers are seeking limited cargoes from US suppliers after the world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar was shut out of the market by the war in Iran, particularly for short-term delivery, Bloomberg reports.
Trans Mountain Pipeline - Trans Mountain’s CEO expects its main pipeline to be nearly full in April as Asian buyers turn to Canada for crude amid severe supply disruptions from the Iran war. The pipeline was expanded to 890,000 BPD in 2024, and had been running below capacity, reaching 96% in November before volumes fell in subsequent months.
Saudi Exports - Saudi Arabia’s oil sales to Asia’s two biggest importers are set to be lower than usual in April as war across the Middle East disrupts supplies, Bloomberg reports. Saudi Aramco is due to ship about 40mln bbls of crude to customers in China (vs 48mln in February). Flows to India are also set to be lower.
India-Iran - Indian Oil bought liquefied petroleum gas from Iran for the first time in almost eight years, according to Bloomberg, as India seeks to prevent a worsening cooking fuel shortage caused by the Middle East war. Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum will share the shipment.

GEOPOLITICS

Turkey - A Turkish tanker carrying crude oil was targeted by an unmanned underwater vehicle and a drone in the Black Sea near Istanbul, NTV reported. The attack on the M/T Altura took place 15 nautical miles from the Bosporus Strait. The vessel was carrying 140k tons of crude from Russia’s Novorossiysk port.
UK-Russia - The UK will interdict and board Russian shadow fleet vessels in its waters, increasing pressure on Moscow over tankers exporting sanctioned crude that help fund the war on Ukraine. PM Starmer’s office said the move aims to strike at the revenue President Putin uses to support Ukraine attacks.

MACRO

Fed Probe - The Fed made a new court filing in its legal fight over DoJ subpoenas tied to an investigation into building renovations overseen by Chair Powell. The filing responded to US Attorney Pirro’s request for reconsideration of a ruling quashing the subpoenas.
Fed Balance Sheet - An article in Bloomberg said that while Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh wants to significantly reduce the Fed’s USD 6.6tln balance sheet, it could take more than one term. In a paper, Stanford professor Darrell Duffie said the Fed would need reforms, including changes to bank liquidity requirements and the payment system, to shrink its market footprint without severe stress.
Fedspeak - Fed’s Miran (voter; dovish dissenter) said he raised his projection for where rates should end the year by 0.5ppts after disappointing inflation data, since forecasts were last issued in December; Miran said the change was not due to oil or Iran. Miran added that the jobs market had been weak, and the economy could do with extra support.
NY AG - FHFA Director Pulte sent letters to the DoJ urging new fraud investigations into New York Attorney General Letitia James over real estate matters. In letters, he alleged insurance applications appeared to misrepresent who would occupy properties and may indicate insurer fraud.

NEWS:

TECH

Nvidia (NVDA) - Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jim Banks want to freeze Nvidia’s export licenses until the company takes US national security “seriously,” Warren said. Elsewhere, Nvidia-backed startup Reflection is in talks to raise USD 2.5bln at a USD 25bln valuation, WSJ reports. The company is among Nvidia-linked startups seeking to build open-source AI models for businesses, labs and universities, WSJ reports.
OpenAI - OpenAI is backing Isara, a San Francisco AI startup founded last June by 23-year-old researchers Eddie Zhang and Henry Gasztowtt. Isara aims to build software enabling AI agents to communicate and solve complex problems in industries including finance and biotech. The company has hired about a dozen researchers from Google (GOOG), Meta Platforms (META) and OpenAI. OpenAI puts erotic chatbot plans on hold ‘indefinitely’, FT reports
Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Samsung, SK Hynix and other South Korean conglomerates have introduced energy-saving measures as part of nationwide efforts to respond to fallout from the Iran war. Samsung and affiliates will restrict staff parking access for 10 days based on licence plate numbers, following a government 5-day driving rule for the public sector.
Crowdstrike (CRWD), IBM (IBM) - CrowdStrike and IBM expanded their strategic collaboration to advance agentic SOC transformation. The partnership integrates CrowdStrike Charlotte AI with IBM’s Autonomous Threat Operations Machine.
Accenture (ACN) - Accenture partnered with Anthropic to launch Cyber.AI, a cybersecurity solution powered by Claude, combining Accenture’s proprietary agents with Claude to help organisations shift security operations to continuous AI-driven capabilities.
Paychex (PAYX) - CEO told CNBC that it delivered a very strong quarter, with organic growth and bookings accelerating; cash flow rose 27% year to date. Sees no signs of a recession. He added that a low-fire, low-hire environment continues.
STMicroelectronics (STM) - STMicroelectronics registered up to 24,755,584 ordinary shares for offer and resale by a selling securityholder or permitted transferees. The shares may be acquired through warrant exercise. The company is not selling shares and will receive no proceeds. The ordinary shares trade on the NYSE under STM. The last reported sale price was USD 31.95 on 24th March 2026.
Pony AI (PONY) - Expects 1,000 BZ4X robotaxis to be produced in 2026.
Adobe (ADBE) - Downgraded at William Blair to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform'. While the shares are "inexpensive" at 9-times free cash flow, Adobe is facing "intense" competition, particularly in its core Creative Cloud. The firm believes the The competitive environment "raises legitimate questions about what the future looks like for Adobe." William Blair believes the shares will be range-bound pending clarity on Adobe's pricing power, long-term economics, right to win the AI opportunity, and the role of professional creators.
Qualcomm (QCOM) - Downgraded at Bernstein to 'Market Perform' from Outperform with a USD 140 PT (prev. 175). The firm sees memory headwinds from higher prices having a "deleterious effect" on overall smartphone shipments. Bernstein believes the company's "potential narrative tailwinds" from the buyback and its data center day will not be enough to offset weak smartphones and potential risk associated with the expiration of the Apple license agreement in a year.
Navan (NAVN) Q4 2025 (USD): Revenue 178mln (exp. 162.25mln); sees Q1 revenue of 204-206mln (exp. 188.2mln) and FY27 revenue of 866-874mln (exp. 841mln).
Pony AI (PONY), Uber (UBER), Verne - Companies are to launch Europe’s first commercial robotaxi service in Zagreb, with testing already underway. Pony provides tech, Verne operates fleet, Uber integrates platform; scaling to thousands of vehicles planned, with Uber also investing in Verne.

FINANCIALS

Bank Regulation - US financial officials proposed making it harder to designate non-bank firms as too-big-to-fail. The Financial Stability Oversight Council voted to roll back a Biden-era framework for potentially labelling hedge funds and investment companies as systemically important, a status that can impose significant compliance costs and Fed supervision.
Jefferies (JEF) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.85 (exp. 0.96), Revenue 2.02bln (exp. 1.98bln). Increased its share buyback authorisation to 250mln. Investment banking net revenues +45% Y/Y to 1.02bln, with record net revenues in Investment Banking Advisory, Equity and Debt Underwriting, and Equities; management said overall Investment Banking Advisory and Equity and Debt Underwriting revenues and Equities net revenues increased +40% Y/Y and +37% Y/Y, respectively. Results were affected by 17mln of losses related to Market Financial Solutions and First Brands after adjusting for compensation and taxes, as well as a USD 36mln non-cash after-tax goodwill write-down linked to the Tessellis stake sale. The CEO said the quarter underscored the strength of the franchise and the durability of the strategy, while noting progress in winding down the legacy merchant banking portfolio through the announced sale of Tessellis, expected to close in Q1 2027.
Blue Owl (OWL) - Blue Owl Capital CEO said it has not seen an increase in defaults in its loan book, despite rising concern over private debt, Bloomberg reports. The firm is among private credit managers facing redemptions from retail-focused funds in recent months, partly due to concerns about software companies, but he said portfolio company performance remains robust.
Ares Management (ARES) - Ares Strategic Income Fund posted its steepest monthly loss on record in February, losing 0.68% based on Bloomberg calculations from regulatory filings. February was also the worst month for the broader leveraged loan market since September 2022, the report notes.
Apollo Global (APO), Blackstone (BX) - Blackstone and Apollo said concerns about the USD 1.8tln private credit industry do not match conditions in their portfolios. Blackstone co-chief investment officer Kenneth Caplan said there is a disconnect between headlines and what the firm sees on the ground, adding that its portfolio has very low levels of default. Meanwhile, former Goldman Sachs (GS) chief Lloyd Blankfein said a buildup of unsold private assets on investors’ balance sheets signals some may be overvalued and could lead to widespread markdowns; he said a forcing function or reckoning may be needed for investors to confront what their balance sheets are really worth.
Blackstone (BX) - Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund BCRED sold a new collateralised loan obligation, upsizing the deal to about USD 450mln (from USD 400mln) after finding sufficient demand, according to Bloomberg; the transaction is a static CLO backed by cash flows from a fixed pool of loans, rather than an actively traded portfolio. Separately, Blackstone is nearing a deal to buy data centre firm Rowan Digital Infrastructure in a transaction that would likely value the data centre firm at over USD 10bln including debt, The Information reports.
Equitable Holdings (EQH), Corebridge Financial (CRBG) - To merge in all-stock deal (~USD 22bln combined). Creates USD 1.5tln+ AUM company; Corebridge holders ~51%, closes end-2026.
Carlyle (CG), KKR (KKR) - To build two data centres for US Army, FT reports; each is said to have a cost of around USD 2bln.
KKR & Co. (KKR), Ecolab (ECL) - KKR confirmed it will sell CoolIT Systems to Ecolab for USD 4.75bln, in one of its largest recent realisations, generating about 15x original equity invested including distributions. CoolIT’s leadership team is expected to stay, and the deal is expected to close in Q3 2026.
Mara Holdings (MARA) - Announced USD 1.0bln repurchase of 0.00% convertible Senior notes due 2030 and 2031 and sale of 15,133 Bitcoin for USD 1.1bln. Deals expected to reduce outstanding convertible indebtedness by 30%.
Monte Paschi (BMPS) - BMPS removed Luigi Lovaglio as CEO after he challenged the bank’s plan to replace him when his term ends in April. After he joined a rival slate to remain in the role, the board revoked his CEO powers, assumed his responsibilities and agreed to suspend him as general manager.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

MillerKnoll (MLKN) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.43 (exp. 0.45), Revenue 926.6mln (exp. 941.95mln); sees Q4 adj. EPS at 0.49-0.55 (exp. 0.61) and Q4 revenue of 955-995mln (exp. 993mln).
Driven Brands (DRVN) - ADW Capital is urging the Driven Brands to explore a sale or breakup, according to a letter cited by the WSJ. The activist investor holds an approximate stake of 2.5% in the automotive services company. The hedge fund also said Driven’s majority owner, Roark Capital, has mismanaged the business.
General Motors (GM), Stellantis (STLA) - GM and Stellantis said they have seen no disruptions after a fire at the Fuyao Glass America plant in Ohio, which supplies components to several automakers, WSJ reports. Investigators are examining the cause of the blaze, which broke out on the roof of the Moraine plant on Sunday.
GAP (GAP) - Plans to open 50 new stores in mainland China in 2026 after breaking even for the first time last quarter. New stores will span tier-one to tier-three cities. Baozun, which operates the brand in China, also plans to reopen Gap stores in Hong Kong later this year, chairman and CEO Vincent Qiu said.
Olaplex (OLPX), Henkel (HENKY) - Henkel is in advanced talks to buy Olaplex, according to Bloomberg; sides are discussing a price of about USD 2/shr. A deal could be announced in the coming days, BBG added.
Grocery Outlet (GO) - CEO Jason Potter purchased 112.8K shares on 23rd March, for a total USD 717.2K.
H&M (HNNMY) - Reported a bigger-than-expected rise in operating profit in Q4, and said it expects March sales to increase 1% in local currencies.

INDUSTRIALS

Boeing (BA) - Korean Air to purchase 103 Boeing jets for USD 36.2bln.
Carrier Fuel Surcharges - The USPS will impose its first fuel surcharge on packages, setting the fee at 8% from 26th April until 17th January 2027. The surcharge is intended to cover rising fuel and transportation costs as the agency seeks to stabilise its finances. It will apply to packages, not letter mail.
JetBlue (JBLU) - Not in active M&A talks, according to sources cited by CNBC. The report followed Semafor saying JetBlue had hired advisers to assess a potential sale and explored how regulators in Washington might view a merger with United Airlines (UAL), Alaska Airlines (ALK), or Southwest Airlines (LUV).
H.B. Fuller (FUL) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 0.57 (exp. 0.55), Revenue 771mln (exp. 785.0mln). The CEO noted a challenging operating environment, stating that geopolitical instability in the Middle East is adding complexity, disruption and cost to global supply chains; the company is acting to maintain supply continuity, and has announced a strategic pricing initiative to manage additional costs. Raised its FY26 EPS view to between 4.55-4.90 (exp. 4.52; prev. saw 4.35-4.70), and raised its FY26 revenue view to up mid-single digits (from flat to up 2%; exp. 3.52bln).
Sturm Ruger (RGR) - Confirmed that it had received a letter from Beretta proposing, subject to certain conditions, a partial tender offer for up to 20.05% of Ruger’s outstanding shares. If successful, Beretta’s stake would rise to about 30%. The proposed tender offer has not commenced.
Commercial Metals (CMC) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.16 (exp. 1.32), Revenue 2.13bln (exp. 2.09bln); sees Q3 consolidated core EBITDA up meaningfully from Q2.
Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) - Warned 2026 earnings will fall sharply amid Iran war disruption; it said the outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty due to the highly volatile development of freight rates.

COMMUNICATIONS

Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG) - Meta and Google’s YouTube were found negligent by a Los Angeles jury for operating a product that harmed children and teens and failing to warn about those dangers, WSJ reports. The jury awarded USD 3mln to a 20 year old plaintiff, and said the companies should pay another USD 3mln in punitive damages. Both plan to appeal.
Snap (SNAP) - European Union said it was investigating Snapchat for allegedly not doing enough to prevent child grooming and the sale of illegal goods.
Ericsson (ERIC), SoftBank (SFTBY) - Ericsson signed a multi-year framework agreement with SoftBank to deploy next-generation core network solutions in Japan and accelerate 5G Standalone adoption.
ProSiebenSat.1 (PBSFY) - Reported FY25 adj. EBITDA -28% Y/Y, missing guidance, with advertising revenue falling about 8% amid a weak German ad market.

MATERIALS

Rio Tinto (RIO) - Said its Diavik mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories reached final production, ending its decades-old diamonds business, WSJ reports. The mine produced more than 150mln carats of rough diamonds over 23 years, and the company said all diamonds that could be profitably mined there have now been extracted. Separately, Rio published its 2025 Taxes and Royalties Paid Report, where it paid USD 9.9bln globally in 2025 (vs 8.4bln in 2024); payments included USD 6.1bln in Australia, USD 1.1bln in Chile, USD 1.0bln in the US, USD 628mln in Mongolia, USD 399mln in Canada. Over 10 years, it has paid USD 82.7bln globally.
BASF (BASFY) - BASF is opening its EUR 10bln Chinese petrochemicals site in Guangdong, its biggest investment to date, as the Middle East conflict disrupts crude and naphtha flows and adds to pressure on a petrochemicals market already hit by excess supply. The company is ramping up production at the facility amid a worsening sector outlook, Bloomberg said.
Worthington Steel (WS) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.27 (exp. 0.46), Revenue 769.8mln (exp. 883mln).

CONSUMER STAPLES

JBS (JBS) Q4 2025 (USD): Net profit 415mln (exp. 428mln), adj. EBITDA 1.72bln (exp. 1.56bln), net revenue 23.06bln (exp. 22.38bln).

HEALTHCARE

Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Chairman Sorensen is set to face investors at the company’s annual meeting for the first time since his boardroom coup. Investors have criticised limited progress so far, highlighting a failed attempt last fall to win an obesity startup from Pfizer (PFE) and a gloomy forecast this year that sent shares lower, Bloomberg said.