Daily US Equity Opening News - CRWV credit concerns arise; LYB slashes dividend; NVDA reportedly close to $30B OpenAI investment

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, YM -0.2%, RUT -0.8%
DAY AHEAD: Global flash PMI data for February are released today. Final University of Michigan sentiment data for February and new home sales data are also due. In Canada, the BoC’s senior loan officer survey is set for release. In energy, Baker Hughes will publish its weekly rig count stats. Today’s CRA slate includes potential reviews from Moody’s on Sweden and Fitch on the UK. The speakers’ slate includes: Fed’s Bostic (non-voter; retiring; hawk), and Fed’s Logan (2026 voter, Hawk), who will speak on bank regulation.
BROKER MOVES: CSGP upgraded at Jefferies; WMT downgraded at HSBC. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NVDA, CRWV, FIX, OPEN, ED, LYB, AKAM, GRAL, WTTR. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: CL, KVUE. For the full list, click here.

COMPANY NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

Iran - President Trump is weighing a limited initial military strike on Iran to pressure it into agreeing to a nuclear deal, WSJ reports citing sources; the potential strike could occur within days, and would target select military or government sites, with the possibility of a broader campaign if Iran refuses to end nuclear enrichment. On Thursday, Trump gave Iran 10-15 days to reach a deal, and warned that ‘bad things’ would happen if no deal made.

TECH

OpenAI, Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia is close to a USD 30bln equity investment in OpenAI, replacing a previously announced USD 100bln multiyear agreement that never progressed beyond a memorandum, FT reports. The investment forms part of a funding round exceeding USD 100bln, valuing OpenAI at USD 730bln ex-new capital. The investment could be finalised as soon as this weekend. SoftBank (SFTBY) plans USD 30bln, Amazon up to USD 50bln, and MGX and Microsoft (MSFT) are also expected to invest, the report adds.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Nvidia (NVDA) - Samsung is expected to effectively secure exclusive supply of HBM4 for Nvidia’s (NVDA) top-tier Vera Rubin NVL72 GPU, using 10-nanometer sixth-generation (1c) DRAM, ChosunBiz reports. Its HBM4 reached 13 Gbps, over 40% above the international standard. Nvidia will split HBM4 suppliers between general and performance models, with high-end pricing estimated at two to three times the previous generation. SK Hynix (HXSCL) and Micron (MU) are also suppliers.
Grid Dynamics (GDYN), Nvidia (NVDA) - Grid Dynamics announced the launch of its Nvidia Solution Centre, a suite of ready-to-deploy AI applications for retail and manufacturing enterprises.
Dell Technologies (DELL) - Positive mention by US President Trump, who said people should go out and buy a Dell computer.
CoreWeave (CRWV) - Blue Owl (OWL) reportedly failed to secure financing for a USD 4bln data centre project in Pennsylvania, according to BusinessInsider; one lender said the lack of interest was due to CoreWeave's creditworthiness.
Akamai (AKAM) - Shares fell in extended trading on weaker than expected guidance. Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 1.84 (exp. 1.75), Revenue 1.09bln (exp. 1.08bln). Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue +45% Y/Y to 94mln, with management citing accelerating AI-related demand, and 36% Y/Y growth across Guardicore Segmentation and API Security. Signed a 4yr USD 200mln cloud infrastructure commitment with a major US technology customer, with revenue recognition expected from Q4 2026. Sees Q1 EPS between 1.50-1.67 (exp. 1.76), Q1 revenue between USD 1.06-1.09bln (exp. 1.07bln), capex between USD 254-264mln. For FY26, sees EPS between 6.20-7.20 (exp. 7.34), revenue between USD 4.4-4.55bln (exp. 4.42bln), capex at between 23-26% of revenue, while noting around USD 200mln of additional 2026 capex due to inflationary pressure in computer hardware, particularly memory chips, alongside plans to invest approximately USD 250mln this year to expand its AI inference cloud.
Dropbox (DBX) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.68 (exp. 0.67), Revenue 636.2mln (exp. 627.9mln). Total ARR -1.9% Y/Y to 2.526bln, with paying users declining to 18.08mln (from 18.22mln), and ARPU at 139.68 (vs 140.06). Sees Q1 revenue of 618-621mln (exp. 613.3mln). Sees FY26 revenue of 2.485-2.50bln (exp. 2.49bln), with capex at 20-25mln, and FCF at or above USD 1.04bln.
Universal Display (OLED) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 1.39 (exp. 1.27), Revenue 179.93mln (exp. 172.83mln). Execs highlighted supportive long-term trends in the OLED market, including increasing adoption in IT applications and continued progress in foldable devices, despite a dynamic near-term consumer electronics environment. Increased its Q1 dividend to 0.50/shr (prev. 0.45/shr); said the increase reflects expected continued cash flow generation and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Sees FY26 revenue between USD 650-700mln (exp. 720.33mln).
Workiva (WK) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.88 (exp. 0.69), Revenue 239mln (exp. 235mln); sees Q1 adj. EPS at 0.64-0.67 (exp. 0.37) and Q1 revenue of 244-246mln (exp. 241mln). Sees FY26 adj. EPS at 2.66-2.76 (exp. 2.17) and FY26 revenue of 1.036-1.04bln (exp. 1.02bln).
Harmonic (HLIT) Q4 2025 (USD): Non-GAAP EPS 0.14 (exp. 0.10), Revenue 157mln (exp. 141mln); sees Q1 GAAP continuing operating EPS at 0.04. Sees Q1 revenue at 100-105mln (exp. 140mln) and 440-480mln for FY26 (exp. 666mln).

COMMUNICATIONS

Meta (META) - Cut annual stock option grants by ~5% for most staff as Mark Zuckerberg ramps up AI spending, with 2026 capex projected at USD 115–135bln, FT reports.
Live Nation (LYV) - Shares rose around in extended trading following results. Q4 loss per share -1.06 (vs profit of 0.56 Y/Y), Q4 revenue +11.1% Y/Y at USD 6.31bln (exp. 6.11bln). Concerts segment revenue +12% to USD 5.15bln, ticketing revenue +1% to USD 846.2mln; global attendance reached 159mln in 2025 (vs 151mln Y/Y), and it sold 180.4mln total tickets in Q4. Early 2026 ticket sales for Live Nation concerts are up double digits to around 67mln fans, with more than 80% of large-venue shows already booked, supporting expectations for another year of double-digit operating income and adjusted operating income growth.
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) - HSR waiting period expires for Paramount Skydance (PSKY) offer to purchase Warner Bros Discovery on the 19th of February.
Zillow (Z), Alphabet (GOOG) - Zillow is partnering with Google’s NotebookLM to provide its home-buying guidance in a featured notebook. The AI research tool will deliver responses grounded in Zillow’s content, with direct citations to articles on Zillow.com.

FINANCIALS

Blue Owl (OWL) - Blue Owl said it is not halting investor liquidity in non-traded debt fund Blue Owl Capital Corp II after replacing quarterly redemptions with payouts. It will return 30% of net asset value and stop quarterly redemptions, instead distributing six times more capital to all shareholders over 45 days and continuing the plan in the coming quarters.
Bank of America (BAC) - Bank of America is committing USD 25bln of its own capital to private-credit deals, expanding its direct-lending activities, Bloomberg reports. The bank will deploy balance-sheet funds into private-credit opportunities and originate transactions through its capital markets division within the investment banking business, the report said.
HSBC Group (HSBC) - HSBC cut 10% of its US-based debt capital markets team, including at least six employees in New York, as part of a business overhaul announced last October, Bloomberg reports.
Robinhood (HOOD) - January funded customers 27.2mln, total platform assets USD 324bln. Net deposits were USD 4.5bln in January (+17% Y/Y). Over the past 12 months, net deposits were USD 67bln (+33% Y/Y).

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon Web Services suffered at least two outages linked to its AI coding tools, FT reports. In mid-December, its Kiro tool contributed to a 13hr interruption to a system used by customers after engineers allowed it to make changes. AWS said both incidents were due to user error. A separate 15-hour outage occurred in October 2025.
Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla unveiled a cheaper dual-motor all-wheel-drive Cybertruck in the US priced at USD 59,990, its most affordable version, but only for 10 days, CEO Musk said. Also, cut the Cyberbeast price to USD 99,990 (from USD 114,990). The Luxe Package, including Supervised Full Self-Driving and free Supercharger access, appears discontinued, Reuters said. Other Cybertruck prices were unchanged.
Boyd Gaming (BYD) - Increased quarterly to 0.20/shr (prev. 0.18).
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 1.28 (exp. 1.50), Revenue 1.48bln (exp. 1.5bln); sees Q1 comp sales up 8.2% and to implement menu price increase of 1.9% in April.
Associated British Foods (ASBFY) - Primark faces mounting competition as shoppers shift to cheaper online rivals such as Shein and higher-quality brands including H&M and Zara, Bloomberg reports. Customers cited rising prices, with items previously priced at GBP 12-13 now around GBP 20. The pressure comes as AB Foods considers a potential spinoff of the fast-fashion retailer.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Walmart (WMT) - Downgraded at HSBC to 'Hold' from 'Buy' describing Q4 results as solid but 2026 outlook as "surprisingly weak". HSBC cut estimates post the earnings print and cites Walmart's "lack of immediate momentum" for the downgrade.
Diageo (DEO) - CEO plans a major overhaul of its 14-member executive committee as he seeks to address weak sales growth and streamline management, FT reports.
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.92 (exp. 0.89), Revenue 2.15bln (exp. 2.15bln). Management said it expects challenges in 2026, particularly in H1, due to tough prior-year comparisons and a dynamic macro environment. Sees Q1 EPS between 1.66-1.70 (exp. 1.80), and comp sales growth between -3% to -1%. Sees FY26 EPS between 5.28-5.44 (exp. 5.69), net sales growth between 4.5-6.5% (exp. 9.65bln), and comp sales growth between -1% to 1%.
Danone (DANOY) - 2025 sales EUR 27.28bln, up 4.5% LFL (exp. 4.4%), with a recurring operating margin of 13.4% (exp. 13.4%), and cash flow of EUR 2.8bln (exp. 2.5bln); raised dividend +4.7% to EUR 2.25/shr; expects 2026 LFL sales growth of 3-5%, with recurring operating income growing faster than sales.

INDUSTRIALS

Defence Stocks - The Department of Defense warned it would retaliate if the EU restricts American arms makers under proposed “Buy European” procurement rules, Politico reports. In feedback to the European Commission, the US said it could review waivers to ‘Buy American’ laws under Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreements, potentially limiting European firms’ access to US contracts, amid EU efforts to boost domestic defence sourcing.
UPS (UPS) - The International Brotherhood of Teamsters union urged a judge to block UPS from offering USD 150k buyouts to drivers, estimating over 10k could accept the offer. UPS plans to extend offers to 105k employees after announcing in January up to 30k job cuts and 24 facility closures. The union sued in February, alleging the plan violates its 2023 labour contract.
Boeing (BA) - Boeing was awarded a max USD 270mln contract by the Defense Logistics Agency for industrial product support at Corpus Christi Army Depot in Texas.
Comfort Systems (FIX) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 9.37 (prev. 4.09 last year), Revenue 2.65bln (exp. 2.34bln); raised quarterly dividend to USD 0.70/shr (prev. 0.60).
Copart (CPRT) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 0.36 (exp. 0.40), Revenue 1.12bln (exp. 1.15bln).

MATERIALS

Anglo American (NGLOY) - Anglo American cut the value of its De Beers unit by USD 2.3bln, halving its valuation and marking a third write-down in three years. The group reported net losses of USD 3.7bln (vs USD 3bln Y/Y). FY revenue USD 18.5bln (prev. 17.7bln Y/Y), adj. profit USD 610mln (exp. 710.8mln), adj. EBITDA USD 6.4bln (exp. 6.34bln). De Beers’ losses widened to USD 511mln (from USD 25mln), as it seeks to sell its 85% stake.
Chemours (CC) - Shares fell in extended trading as cyclical weakness in its Advanced Performance Materials segment and a sizable inventory charge weighed. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.05 (exp. 0.02), Revenue 1.3bln (exp. 1.33bln). Q4 adj. EBITDA was slightly below the expected range due to cyclical headwinds in its APM business, including a non-cash inventory charge and unfavourable product mix. Sees Q1 revenue of 1.339-1.365bln (exp. 1.42bln), adj. EBITDA of 120-150mln, capex of ~50mln. Sees FY26 revenue between 5.974–6.09bln (exp. 6.04bln), adj. EBITDA between 800-900mln, capex between 275-325mln.
Newmont (NEM) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.52 (exp. 2.05), Revenue 6.82bln (exp. 6.16bln). Announced an enhanced capital allocation framework and increased its quarterly dividend. Sees FY26 gold production of roughly 5.3mln oz.
LyondellBasell (LYB) - Declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.69/shr (prev. USD 1.37/shr); "markets expected to remain challenged". CEO: "With markets expected to remain challenged, we have made the decision to recalibrate the dividend to better position the company to thrive once markets recover". "We remain committed to our target of returning 70% of free cash flow to shareholders through the cycle".
Hudbay (HBM) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.22 (exp. 0.39), Revenue 733mln (exp. 735mln); sees FY26 consolidated copper production of 14kT and FY26 total sustaining capex of 435mln.

ENERGY

Transocean (RIG) Q4 2025 (USD: EPS 0.02 (exp. 0.07), Revenue 1.04bln (exp. 1.04bln). Sees Q1 revenue between 1.02-1.05bln (exp. 1.01bln) and FY26 revenue of 3.80-3.95bln (exp. 3.86bln). Said its proposed combination with Valaris, expanded high-specification fleet, stronger pro forma cash flow and improved financial flexibility will support further debt reduction and investment.
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG), Infinity Natural Resources (INR) - Northern Oil and Gas and Infinity Natural Resources adjusted their pending joint acquisition of Ohio Utica Shale upstream and midstream assets from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream. At closing, Northern will hold 40% for USD 480mln, with Infinity increasing to 60%, on the same pro rata economic terms. Transaction expected to close by the end of Q1 2026.
Select Water Solutions (WTTR) - Filed a USD 175mln class A common stock offering - priced at USD 12.75 within a USD 12.75-13.25 deal range.

UTILITIES

Consolidated Edison (ED) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.89 (exp. 0.86), Revenue 3.995bln (exp. 3.71bln), adj. net income 320mln (exp. 325mln). Management noted continued demand for grid modernisation, supporting long-term returns and reliability. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 6.00-6.20 (exp. 6.01), and sees FY26 capex of 6.595bln (exp. 6.759bln), with FY27 capex of 6.759bln; it plans aggregate capital investments of 24.339bln for 2028-2030, to be funded through internally generated cash flow, long-term debt and common equity issuance. Targets a 5yr adj. EPS CAGR of +6-7% based on the midpoint of its 2026 guidance.
Alliant Energy (LNT) - Backed FY26 ongoing EPS view of USD 3.36-3.46 (exp. 3.42).
PPL Corp (PPL) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.41 (exp. 0.42), Revenue 2.27bln (exp. 2.23bln); sees FY26 EPS at 1.90-1.98 (exp. 1.95). Sees 6-8% annual EPS growth through 2029 and raised 2026-2030 capital investment plan to 23bln from 20bln.

HEALTHCARE

Eli Lilly (LLY) - Barclays initiated coverage of Eli Lilly with an Overweight rating and a USD 1,350 price target. Its analysts cited GLP-1 weight loss treatments as a “durable structural shift” and expects Lilly to remain the market share leader in obesity, adding that its shares warrant a premium valuation.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Preparing a potential sale of its orthopaedics unit, DePuy Synthes, which it has been planning to separate. The business could be valued at more than USD 20bln, with major buyout firms expressing interest, Bloomberg said. Separately, JNJ reported Phase 1b/2 OrigAMI-4 data showing investigational subcutaneous amivantamab and hyaluronidase-lpuj combined with a PD-1 inhibitor delivered clinically meaningful and durable antitumour activity in first-line recurrent or metastatic, PD-L1-positive, HPV-unrelated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.
Novartis (NVS) - Novartis agreed to sell its 71% stake in listed unit Novartis India Ltd. to a consortium of WaveRise Investments, ChrysCapital Fund X and Two Infinity Partners for around USD 159mln; the transaction concludes a strategic review announced two years ago.
Grail (GRAL) - Reported topline results from the three-year NHS-Galleri trial of 142,000 participants aged 50-77 in England. The primary endpoint of statistically significant Stage III-IV cancer reduction was not met. However, a favourable trend was seen in 12 deadly cancers, with reduced Stage IV diagnoses and a four-fold improvement in detection rates for breast, colorectal, cervical and high-risk lung cancers. No serious safety concerns were reported.
AstraZeneca (AZN) - Won US FDA approval for Calquence + venetoclax as the first all-oral, fixed-duration regimen for CLL/SLL, backed by Phase III AMPLIFY trial results.

REAL ESTATE

Extra Space Storage (EXR) Q4 2025 (USD): Core FFO 2.08 (exp. 2.03), Revenue 857mln (exp. 733mln); sees 2026 core FFO at 8.05-8.35 (exp. 8.25).
Opendoor Tech (OPEN) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EBITDA -43mln (exp. -50mln), Revenue 736mln (exp. 596mln); sees Q1 adj. EBITDA loss in the low mid 30mln and Q1 revenue down ~10% Q/Q. Increased our homes purchased by 46% Q/Q, significantly reduced our capital intensity by expanding Cash Plus such that it is now 35% of our weekly volume, and reduced average days in possession of our inventory by 23%.