Daily US Equity Opening News - Futures lower amid Middle-East conflict; Airliners/cruise sold; Defense, energy, and shipping bid

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -1.0%, NQ -1.2%, YM -1.0%, RUT -1.2%
DAY AHEAD: Geopolitics remains the focus, as traders assesses the impact from the Iran conflict; analysts said that the duration of the campaign, impact on energy infrastructure, and any willingness to engage in diplomacy will shape the outlook, though warned that it was difficult to predict the geopolitically fluid situation. Final manufacturing PMI data are out today, although the results may be easy to look through, given how the Iran conflict will change the dynamics in the weeks and months ahead. The US ISM manufacturing survey for February is expected to be little changed at 52.3 (from 52.6). The Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate, which is currently modelling growth of 3.0% in Q1. In later trade, the Fed will publish its Senior Loan Officer Survey.
BROKER MOVES: CRWD upgraded at Piper Sandler; OWL downgraded at Barclays. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: ABNB, ARM, BMY, C, JPM, LLY, MS, PANW, PWR, QCOM, TSLA. For the full list, click here.
WEEK AHEAD: This week’s data highlights include US NFP, retail sales, ISM PMIs, EZ flash inflation data, ECB minutes, Australian GDP. The intensity of US earnings season will ease; this week’s highlights including TGT, CRWD, AVGO, COST.
Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly US earnings estimates.

IRAN SITUATION REPORT (click here for industry impact breakdown)

IRAN: The US-Israeli war with Iran has entered its third day, with all sides conducting large-scale airstrikes. The conflict is seemingly also spreading into Europe, amid reports that a UK RAF base in Cyprus was targeted by a suspected drone strike on Sunday night.
ENERGY: Oil rallied amid reports that three ships were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global oil and gas flows. Brent rose over 10% in early Asia, but pared gains to beneath USD 78/bbl in early Europe trading. Analysts noted that no broad and primary targeting of oil infrastructure has been seen thus far; that said, this morning, there were reports that Iranian drones struck an ARAMCO oil refinery in Tas Tannoura, forcing the refinery to shut, and additionally, Iran's Ahwaz oil refinery in Khuzestan Province -- one of the world's largest, producing approximately 0.8-1.0mln BPD of crude -- has reportedly been struck in a suspected US airstrike. Iran has warned ships against transiting the Strait. ING said “it would be difficult to enforce a closure [of the Strait], and any attempts to do so would likely see a strong response from the US,” adding that “vessels are becoming increasingly reluctant to navigate the strait given the risks and the longer this reluctance persists, the more of an impact it will have on oil and gas markets.” Lastly, QatarEnergy is reportedly to stop the production of LNG, due to military attacks on operating facilities in Ras Laffan industrial city and Mesaieed industrial city.
BALANCING ENERGY MARKETS: ING suggests that if markets perceive significant oil supply disruptions, the most immediate response from governments would likely be a coordinated release of crude from SPR. “There will be plenty of focus on the US SPR, which is about 35% smaller than what it was at the start of 2021, given it was used heavily following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” the bank writes, “however, at roughly 415mln barrels, there is room for further emergency releases to take some pressure off the market,” though adds that “clearly, releases from reserves can only offer temporary relief.” OPEC+ over the weekend agreed to raise output by 206k BPD in April (exp. 137k), as the conflict disrupted Gulf flows and shut the Strait of Hormuz. However, some analysts noted that limited spare capacity beyond Saudi Arabia and the UAE may curb market impact.
DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS: Weekend reports suggest that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Ali Larijani, is seeking to reopen nuclear talks with the US via Oman following joint US-Israel strikes, despite publicly vowing retaliation for Khamenei’s death. President Trump said Iran wants talks and that he has agreed, adding they “should have done it sooner” and “waited too long”. On Monday, Larijani publicly denied any negotiations, stating Iran will not negotiate with the US.
AIR TRAVEL: Iran has also struck regional airports; flights at Doha’s Hamad International airport have been halted, disrupting cargo flows. Airline equities in the APAC trade saw sharp downside.
US CASUALTIES: Reports over the weekend said three US service members have been killed and five seriously wounded. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted ahead of these reports showed 27% approval for the strikes, with 56% viewing Trump as too willing to use military force. Recent reports suggested a US F-15 fighter jet had been shot down in Kuwait.
OUTLOOK: Traders will focus on the duration of the conflict, whether energy infrastructure is targeted, and the progress of diplomatic engagements. Trump suggested US combat operations could last weeks. Analysts at HSBC said the USD is likely to hold an upper hand near term, contrasting with June 2025 during the war with Iran, when initial strength was short-lived due to US policy uncertainty. Its analysts wrote that this did not signal a loss of safe-haven status, noting geopolitical events can send mixed currency signals depending on surrounding conditions. However, the bank added that “we can have no conviction on how the situation in Iran may evolve,” writing that “the impact is contingent on the duration of any conflict and how it extends to the broader region.”

GEOPOLITICS

Goldman on Hormuz - Goldman Sachs says the Hormuz disruption could add USD 18/bbl of oil risk premium, and it flags natgas upside and defensive tilt. While GS leaves its base cases for energy prices unchanged, it estimates a USD 18/bbl real-time risk premium under a six-week full Strait of Hormuz closure; this would moderate to USD 4/bbl if 50% of flows are halted for one month, allowing for spare pipeline capacity. The bank flags substantial upside risk in natgas, noting that TTF and JKM had little-to-no risk premium; GS says that a one-month halt could see prices approach EUR 74/MWh, around 130% above current levels. Its strategists highlight energy as the key transmission channel, adding that the severity and duration of disruptions to oil flows are seen as critical for broader market impact.
JPMorgan on Stocks - JPMorgan tells clients to use geopolitical weakness to add, as fundamentals are constructive; the bank expects near-term risk-off after geopolitical escalation, but sees weakness as a buying opportunity over 3-, 6-, and 12-months. JPM says that fundamentals are supportive, activity is resilient, the consumer wealth effect is positive, and corporate capex is backed by robust earnings. Its analysts note that Mag-7 and anti-AI groups have derated sharply, with relative P/E near 10-year lows and record lows respectively, adding that while both may lag, absolute downside is seen as more limited. The bank reiterates its preference for leadership broadening towards value, small caps, International and EM over DM; cautions on Software, Business Services and Media; it also flags the mining rally as maturing.
India-Russia - Indian state refiners and officials are considering contingency plans amid a crisis in Iran that has largely halted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about half of India’s oil imports, Bloomberg reports. Options include sourcing Russian cargoes near Indian waters. India had reduced Russian purchases under US pressure following a trade deal last month that eased punitive tariffs.

EQUITY NEWS

TECH

Nvidia (NVDA) - Set to unveil a new inference-focused AI processor at its GTC conference, aimed at delivering faster, more efficient model responses, with technology reportedly incorporating a chip from startup Groq, WSJ reports. OpenAI has agreed to become one of the largest customers for the new processor, securing significant dedicated inference capacity even as it diversifies into alternatives from Amazon (AMZN) and other chip providers. Meanwhile, Nvidia announced a commitment with Booz Allen (BAH), BT Group (BTGOF), Cisco (CSCO), Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY), Ericsson (ERIC), MITRE, Nokia (NOK), OCUDU Ecosystem Foundation, ODC, SK Telecom, SoftBank (SFTBY) and T-Mobile (TMUS) to develop 6G wireless networks on AI-native, open and secure platforms. The initiative aims to advance AI-RAN and transform telecom networks into AI infrastructure, according to CEO Huang.
Apple (AAPL) - Apple has reportedly placed key OLED panel orders with Samsung Display for its first foldable iPhone, aiming to reduce crease depth to below 0.15mm — roughly one-quarter that of rival foldables, Digitimes reports. The device, referred to as the ‘iPhone Fold’, is positioned as a near crease-free model and is expected to potentially debut in Autumn 2026, alongside Apple’s broader product lineup, the report adds.
Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL) - Companies face potential action in Australia as the regulator warned it may require search engines and app stores to block AI services that fail to verify user ages, after a Reuters review found many had not disclosed compliance steps ahead of a deadline. Apple said it would use “reasonable methods” to prevent minors from downloading 18+ apps, while Google declined to comment.
Nvidia (NVDA), Lumentum (LITE) - Nvidia has entered a multiyear strategic partnership with Lumentum Holdings to develop advanced optics technology, alongside a USD 2bln investment to support the company’s R&D, future capacity, and operations.
Nvidia (NVDA), Coherent (COHR) - Nvidia has formed a multiyear strategic partnership with Coherent Corp to develop advanced optics technology aimed at scaling next-generation data center architecture. The nonexclusive agreement includes a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment from Nvidia, along with a USD 2bln investment to support Coherent’s R&D, capacity expansion, and operations.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft is considering launching an AI-focused “E7” enterprise bundle for Microsoft 365, according to sources cited by Business Insider. The package would include existing E5 features plus Microsoft Copilot and Agent 365. Pricing under review includes per-seat and consumption models, with potential charges of up to USD 99/month.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have reportedly informed customers of plans to raise DRAM prices in Q2 and have begun negotiations, according to South Korean media reports cited by the Digitimes. The increases reflect strong AI-driven demand and tightening supply conditions, further strengthening the pricing power of major memory suppliers, particularly with large-volume buyers.
Micron (MU) - Announced the opening of its semiconductor assembly and test facility in Gujarat, India. The site converts DRAM and NAND wafers from Micron’s global manufacturing network into finished memory and storage products. Once fully ramped, the first phase will include more than 500ksqft of cleanroom space.
Nokia (NOK) - Nokia announced progress in its AI-RAN partnership with Nvidia (NVDA), including customer integrations and tests, working with BT (BT/ LN), Elisa, NTT DOCOMO and Vodafone Group (VOD). Nokia also launched Doksuri Remote Radio Heads under its AirScale portfolio. Separately, Nokia and Ericsson (ERIC) agreed to collaborate on intelligent automation, joining each other’s platforms to enable broader rApp availability across multivendor networks.
Qualcomm (QCOM) - Formed a global partner coalition, announced at MWC Barcelona 2026, to accelerate 6G development with a roadmap targeting commercial rollout from 2029 onward.
Cadence Design (CDNS) - Filed with the SEC for an offering of up to 3.2mln shares of common stock by a selling stockholder, according to a regulatory filing.
Klaviyo (KVYO) - Announced a USD 500mln share repurchase programme.
OpenAI, Anthropic - OpenAI agreed to deploy its AI models within the US Defense Department’s classified network after Anthropic’s relationship with the Pentagon ended over surveillance and autonomous weapons concerns. CEO Altman said the agreement aligns with OpenAI’s principles prohibiting domestic mass surveillance and requiring human responsibility in the use of force, with safeguards built into the deployment.

COMMUNICATIONS

Search Engines - Australia’s internet regulator said it may require search engines and app stores to block AI services that fail to verify user ages, with fines of up to AUD 49.5mln from 9th March for non-compliance, Reuters reports; the newswires review found most AI platforms had not announced age assurance systems.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to be acquired by Paramount Skydance in a USD 110bln deal, signed on Friday, including about USD 29bln in debt. Netflix (NFLX) declined to match Paramount’s USD 31/shr offer after offering USD 27.75/shr; Paramount will pay a USD 2.8bln termination fee to Netflix. The merger will face regulatory scrutiny despite expectations of EU antitrust approval with only minor divestments; California AG said the state is investigating the deal and will be vigorous in its review, while US lawmakers have raised concerns over reduced consumer choice and higher prices. Separately, S&P Global said Paramount Skydance’s bid for Warner is likely to strain its credit rating (currently BB+, the highest junk level).
Alphabet (GOOG) - Google is bringing robotics software firm Intrinsic in-house as a distinct unit, aiming to accelerate the development and deployment of AI in physical systems such as industrial robotics, Digitimes reports. The move is intended to strengthen Google’s push into “physical AI,” integrating software, hardware and infrastructure to advance automation across manufacturing, logistics and other industrial applications.
Live Nation (LYV) - Live Nation’s attempts to settle a federal antitrust lawsuit seeking to break up the company have so far been rejected by government lawyers, keeping the case on track for trial this week, Bloomberg reports. Jury selection is scheduled for Monday.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Tesla (TSLA)- Tesla showed signs of stabilising in Europe, with February data indicating a recovery, Reuters reports. Registrations rose sharply by 55% in France and increased 32% in Norway, although performance remained uneven as sales fell 18% in Denmark. Meanwhile, Spain new Tesla registrations climb 73.7% Y/Y in February to 1,595 cars, ANFAC said.
Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon Web Services said multiple services were disrupted in the UAE after objects struck a data centre in the ME-CENTRAL-1 region, causing sparks and a fire. Meanwhile, Amazon will invest EUR 18bln in Spain to boost data centre infrastructure; adds EUR 18bln to the USD 15.7bln investment already announced in 2024.
China Automakers - Li Auto (LI) delivered 26,421 vehicles in February 2026, bringing cumulative deliveries to 1,594,304; it operated 539 retail stores, 548 servicing centres and 4,054 super charging stations with 22,447 stalls. NIO (NIO) delivered 20,797 vehicles, up 57.6% Y/Y, including 15,159 NIO, 2,981 ONVO and 2,657 FIREFLY models, with cumulative deliveries of 1,045,571. XPeng (XPEV) delivered 15,256 vehicles in February 2026; it also began global deliveries of the new XPENG P7+, with the initial shipment destined for 18 countries. BYD (BYDDY) sold 190,190 vehicles in February, down 41% Y/Y and down 9.5% M/M.
Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.28 (exp. 0.27), Revenue 2.20bln (exp. 2.34bln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 2.38 (exp. 2.60) and Q1 adj. EPS of 0.16 (exp. 0.14).
Whirpool Corp (WHR) - Cut 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to about USD 6.00 (prev. about 7.00).
Renault (RNLSY), Stellantis (STLA) - French new car registrations fell 14.7% Y/Y in February to 120,764 vehicles, down from 141,570, reflecting weaker sales at Renault and Stellantis, according to the PFA. Registrations for the first two months of the year declined 11.1% to 227,921.
Toyota (TM) - Toyota raised its offer to privatise Toyota Industries to JPY 20,600/shr, valuing the company at JPY 6.7tln, and extended the tender period to 16th March. The revised bid represents a 9.6% increase from the prior JPY 18,800/shr offer, following pressure from activist investor Elliott.
Crown Holdings (CCK) - Crown Holdings raised its quarterly dividend +35% to USD 0.35/shr. The Chairman and CEO said the increase reflects earnings and free cash flow strength.
Macau - Macau reported February gross gaming revenue rose 4.5% Y/Y to 20.63B patacas, according to the city’s gaming bureau.

FINANCIALS

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) - Q4 operating earnings USD 10.2bln (vs 14.56bln Y/Y); operating earnings decline was driven by a 54% Y/Y fall in insurance underwriting profit (to USD 1.56bln) and a near 25% Y/Y drop in insurance investment income (to USD 3.1bln). FY25 operating earnings were USD 44.49bln (vs USD 47.44bln in FY24). Overall Q4 earnings were USD 19.2bln, including a USD 4.5bln impairment. Cash totalled USD 373.3bln at year-end, with no share buybacks in the quarter. CEO Greg Abel said the company continues to assess investment opportunities and will repurchase shares when below intrinsic value, while keeping a concentrated US equity portfolio; in his first shareholder letter, he pledged to uphold Berkshire’s culture, disciplined investing and a “fortress-like” balance sheet, while he also reiterated his opposition to dividends, and kept buyback criteria unchanged.
Shipping Insurance - Seven of the 12 members of the International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs will automatically terminate war-risk cover for ships entering the Persian Gulf, adjacent waters or Iranian waters from midnight London time on 5th March, Bloomberg reports. The move affects only war-risk insurance, with other coverage terms unchanged.
Private Credit - Former Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein warned of a potential reckoning as Wall Street channels US savers’ money into private credit, saying the financial system may be edging toward another crisis. He said these assets can be difficult to analyse, and may contain hidden leverage and could then become hard to sell.
Blue Owl (OWL) - Downgraded at Barclays to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' with a USD 11 PT (prev. 15). The firm views consensus estimates for Blue Owl as too high and says the stock is now closer to fairly priced on an earnings growth basis. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lower business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization.
UBS Group (UBS) - UBS plans to retain CEO Sergio Ermotti beyond April 2027 as a dispute with Swiss authorities over capital rules delays succession planning, according to NZZ. Chairman Colm Kelleher and the board view Ermotti as best placed to lead the bank through the regulatory standoff.

HEALTHCARE

Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Downgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' with a USD 41 PT (prev. 63). The firm cut estimates for CagriSema across diabetes and obesity following the "disappointing" result for the REDEFINE-4 trial. Novo shares are now a "show-me story," the firm said.
Elevance Health (ELV) - Disclosed CMS moves to suspend the enrollment in Elevance Health Medicare Advantage drug plans; the sanctions are scheduled to take effect on March 31, 2026 unless CMS determines that the issues identified have been addressed.
Oscar Health (OSCR) - To reaffirm 2026 guidance at conference; FY26 revenue USD 18.7-19.0bln and FY26 earnings from operations USD 250-450mln.
Humana (HUM) - Affirmed FY26 guidance of adj. EPS of at least USD 9.00.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - US FDA has lifted its clinical hold on the MAGNITUDE Phase 3 trial of nexiguran ziclumeran for transthyretin amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy, allowing the study to resume after it was paused in October 2025 due to serious liver-related side effects observed in one patient.
uniQure (QURE) - US FDA has recommended an additional randomized late-stage study before it can seek approval for AMT-130, its experimental gene therapy for Huntington’s disease. The FDA does not consider the existing Phase I/II data—compared with an external control—sufficient to support a marketing application, instead urging a more rigorous, sham-controlled trial.
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) - Voluntarily pausing its Phase 3 HERO trial of ARD-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome after reversible cardiac findings at above-target doses in a healthy volunteer study, delaying planned 2026 topline data.
Merck (MRK), Eisai (ESAIY) - Merck reported Phase 3 LITESPARK-022 data showing Keytruda plus Welireg in the adjuvant setting for clear cell renal cell carcinoma reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 28% versus Keytruda plus placebo, with 24-month DFS rates of 80.7% and 73.7%, respectively; median DFS was not reached. Merck and Eisai also presented Phase 3 LITESPARK-011 results evaluating Welireg plus Lenvima in advanced RCC.
Cogent Biosciences (COGT) - Reported additional SUMMIT trial data showing bezuclastinib delivered statistically significant improvements in NonAdvanced Systemic Mastocytosis.

INDUSTRIALS

Airbus (EADSY), Delta Air Lines (DAL) - Delta ordered 34 additional Airbus A321neo jets, exercising existing options as part of a fleet modernisation plan; the aircraft are scheduled for delivery from 2029. The purchase marks Delta’s third aircraft order in less than six weeks.
Boeing (BA) - Awarded a USD 166.84mln Navy contract to provide engineering analysis, software maintenance and support, and upgrades for P-8A systems and associated hardware.
L3Harris Technologies (LHX) - Awarded a USD 465.99mln Navy contract for the development, production and testing of the Binocular Night Observation Device.

MATERIALS

SQM (SQM) - FY25 adj. EPS 2.06 (vs -1.42 Y/Y), FY25 revenue USD 4.576bln (vs 4.529bln Y/Y). It returned to profitability, supported by record lithium sales volumes across its Nova Andino Litio and International Lithium divisions. Management said improved supply-demand balance and supply disruptions led to tighter market conditions and shifting pricing trends in Q4. SQM estimates lithium market demand could grow approximately 25% this year, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Hudbay Minerals (HBM) - To acquire Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (ASCUF) for CAD 9.35/shr via a share exchange, gaining full ownership of the Cactus project; the deal is expected to close in Q2 2026, after which ASCU will be delisted.

ENERGY

LNG - QatarEnergy is reportedly to stop the production of LNG, due to military attacks on operating facilities in Ras Laffan industrial city and Mesaieed industrial city.
Venture Global Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.41 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 4.45bln (exp. 4.45bln); sees Q1 adj. EBITDA at 1.15-1.25bln and FY26 adj. EBITDA at 5.2-5.8bln. Announced a binding agreement with Trafigura for the purchase of about 0.5 million tonnes per year of US lng over five years starting in 2026, enhancing flexibility for global LNG customers and further diversifying Venture Global’s portfolio.

UTILITIES

AES Corp (AES) - A consortium led by GIP and EQT agreed to buy AES for USD 15/shr cash, valuing the company at USD 10.7bln in equity and USD 33.4bln in enterprise value; will be fully funded with equity. The deal has board approval and is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

REAL ESTATE

Public Storage (PSA), Welltower (WELL) - Public Storage and Welltower announced a strategic data science partnership combining Welltower’s data-driven capital allocation capabilities with Public Storage’s operational, pricing and customer analytics platform.

TRADE

Tariff Refunds - The Trump administration is seeking to delay litigation over whether it must refund importers billions of dollars in tariffs invalidated by the SCOTUS. In a filing, the DoJ asked to wait up to four months before resuming proceedings in the US Court of International Trade, opposing companies’ efforts to restart the case promptly.

MACRO

China 5yr Plan - China is set to unveil a new 5yr plan that will influence global commodities markets through the decade, with measures targeting supply as well as demand, Bloomberg said. As the world’s largest raw materials buyer, its GDP goal, stimulus plans and support for sectors such as clean energy and AI are expected to signal areas of future consumption growth.
BoJ - Deputy Governor Himino gave no indication of an imminent rate hike, reinforcing expectations the BoJ will hold policy steady this month after conflict erupted in the Middle East, BBG reports. Himino said he wanted to closely monitor developments in the region.