Daily US Equity Opening News - G7 to discuss oil reserve release today; VRT, LITE, COHR, SATS to join SPX, MTCH, MOH, LW, PAYC exit

TODAY’S AGENDA:

NOTE: The time differential between London and New York is down to 4 hours after the US moved onto Summer Time on the weekend; In the UK, the clocks will go forward to BST on 29th March, restoring the usual 5hr time differential.

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.9%, NQ -0.9%, YM -1.0%, RUT -1.5%
DAY AHEAD: After Brent crude prices surged towards USD 120/bbl amid the escalating war with Iran, G7 finance ministers will discuss a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves with the IEA today, the FT reports; the report said a joint release of between 300-400mln barrels (25-30% of the IEA’s reserves) may be appropriate. Elsewhere, the data slate is quiet, with only the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations on tap for release (last month, median 1yr ahead inflation expectations fell 0.3ppts to 3.1%, while 3yr and 5yr expectations held at 3.0%). The data comes ahead of this week’s CPI and PCE inflation data, however, many analysts are noting that the monetary policy signalling from this month’s inflation readings may not be very useful, since the periods are before the Iran War started, and since then, energy and crop prices have increased, signalling further inflation upside in the months ahead, potentially limiting central banks’ hand in lowering interest rates. The FOMC is now on blackout ahead of its 19th March confab. Notable corporate earnings due today include Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Casey's (CASY).
BROKER MOVES: GEV double upgraded at Rothschild Redburn; JEF downgraded at Morgan Stanley. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Cruise Liners/Airliners/Lodging names, Defense/Energy, Supertankers, VRT/LITE/SATS, MTCH/MOH/PAYC, LW, LYV, HIMS . For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: KO, T, CVS, CAH, AMT, NDAQ, ZTS, AAPL, AMD, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, FTNT, NOW, PANW, SNOW, WMT. For the full list, click here.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US inflation data (both PCE and CPI), though the monpol signal may not be as relevant this month given the subsequent upside in energy and crop prices; UK GDP, China Trade data, and a CBRT policy announcement.
Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
THIS WEEK’S EARNINGS: Notable companies reporting this week include: Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Lennar (LEN), Dollar General (DG), Casey’s (CASY), Dick’s (DKS), Campbell’s (CPB), Kohl’s (KSS), NIO (NIO).
Click here for Newsquawk’s Weekly US Earnings Estimates note.

NEWS:

IRAN

Iran - Iran has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former supreme leader, as its new leader, which analysts say represents continuity rather than regime change, or a signal of surrender. President Trump’s demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and there are reports that he is considering sending US special forces to seize Iranian uranium, adding to the market’s angst. Oil prices did pare their sharp gains in early European trade, after an FT report suggested that the G7 will discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves at an emergency meeting on Monday; three G7 countries, including the US, have so far expressed support for the proposal, the report said, adding that a joint release in the range of 300-400mln barrels (25-30% of the IEA’s reserves) would be appropriate. Elsewhere, US Energy Secretary Wright on the weekend said global energy supplies were sufficient and that the rise in oil prices reflects a temporary “fear premium”; he said the conflict would disrupt markets and ship traffic only briefly and, in the worst case, for weeks rather than months.
Oil Prices - OCBC Group Research said an “acute” energy shock could push Brent crude towards USD 140/bbl and keep it elevated through mid-2026, while Phillip Nova said supply disruption could outlast the Middle East conflict, WSJ reports.
Saudi Oil - Saudi Aramco has offered prompt crude supply through a series of rare tenders as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts contracted shipments and reroutes flows via the Red Sea. According to traders cited by Bloomberg, it has offered Arab Extra Light, Arab Heavy and Arab Light, with roughly 4.6mln barrels across the grades in recent days.
Offsetting Strait Closure - Bloomberg’s Javier Blas writes that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah route could partially offset a Strait of Hormuz closure, rerouting roughly 6.5-7.0mln BPD (vs about 20mln BPD normally transiting the Strait). Blas argues this may cap, but not prevent, further oil price gains after the initial spike above USD towards 120/bbl. He adds that key variables are: tanker access, port capacity, war duration and whether regional production, refining and export infrastructure avoid attack. He added that the pipelines buy time, but do not solve the supply shock if the disruption persists.
Iraq Output - Iraq’s oil output has fallen about 60% as the Iran war has left too few tankers to load crude, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Production is now about 1.7-1.8mln BPD (down from about 4.3mln BPD before the conflict began). The UAE and Kuwait have also started cutting output as storage fills, joining Iraq, and reports suggest that other Gulf producers may also reduce output as tankers avoid the region and loading capacity tightens.
LNG Markets - Several more LNG cargoes have been diverted toward Asia from routes to Europe as Qatar outage remove supply and increase competition for fuel. Bloomberg said at least two tankers changed course in the Atlantic since Friday, following three similar diversions last week. Morgan Stanley said the halt in LNG production in Qatar is likely to eliminate most of the 2026 supply surplus. Its analysts said any extension of the outage beyond one month would quickly turn the market into deficit.
US LNG - An analysis in the WSJ notes that US natgas markets have been cushioned from global energy shocks, as ample inventories, record production and fully utilised US LNG export capacity limit the impact on US energy bills.
Europe Jet Fuel - Kpler’s Amena Bakr said Europe has limited options to replace lost Middle East jet fuel flows after disruption in Hormuz. Asian demand is drawing cargoes east and export restrictions are tightening supply. She said attention is turning to the Atlantic Basin, especially the US Gulf Coast and West Africa, though available volumes are unlikely to fully cover the shortfall.

GEOPOLITICS

US-China, South Korea - The US and South Korea reduced the scale of their annual Freedom Shield spring military drills as Seoul seeks to ease tensions with Pyongyang ahead of President Trump’s planned regional visit, Bloomberg said.

TRADE

US-China - China’s Wang Yi said 2026 could be a “landmark year” for sound, steady and sustainable US-China relations, despite President Trump’s threat to expand strikes on Iran and hit Beijing’s strategic partner. Wang said both sides could achieve that outcome when they treat each other with sincerity and good faith.
US-China, South Korea - South Korea’s industry minister said the US signalled it will refrain from raising tariffs on Korean goods if Seoul quickly passes draft legislation to facilitate investment in the US, Bloomberg reports. Kim Jung-kwan said Washington responded positively after he briefed US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on plans to pass the bill this week.

MACRO

US Politics - President Trump threatened not to sign any bill into law until voting reforms are passed, as the Republican-controlled Senate resists the measure. In a Truth Social post, Trump repeated his call for Republicans to partly eliminate the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act, which would require more voter identification at polling places.

INDEX

S&P 500 (SPX) - S&P Dow Jones will add Vertiv Holdings (VRT), Lumentum Holdings (LITE), Coherent (COHR) and EchoStar (SATS) to the S&P 500 before the open on 23rd March, while Match Group (MTCH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) and Paycom Software (PAYC) will be removed from the index.
US Equity ETFs - Goldman Sachs said hedge funds increased short positions in US equity ETFs by over 8% in the week through 6th March, as investors raised bearish bets amid Middle East tensions. Bloomberg said the pace of the increase was exceeded only once in the past five years.

TECH

Nvidia (NVDA) - Billionaire Leo KoGuan doubled his Nvidia stake to 2mln shares, increasing his investment during the global market sell-off linked to the Middle East war. He said on X that he made the additional purchase days after announcing his initial buy. Meanwhile, Nvidia adopted a new FY2027 variable compensation plan setting a USD 4mln target cash bonus for CEO Jensen Huang, tied to achieving revenue goals for the fiscal year ending Jan. 31, 2027.
Nexperia, Automakers, Global Semiconductors - China’s commerce ministry warned renewed conflict between Nexperia and its Chinese subsidiary could trigger another global semiconductor supply chain crisis, Reuters reports. The dispute has intensified after the Chinese unit accused Nexperia’s Dutch headquarters of disabling China staff office accounts. Beijing noted that Nexperia chips are widely used in autos, and blamed the Netherlands for any renewed disruption.
SoftBank (SFTBY) - Overnight, SoftBank’s 5yr CDS widened to about 380bps (vs around 347bps late last week), while its shares fell over 10% to the lowest since August 2025, amid mounting concern over the viability of the Stargate AI infrastructure project, Bloomberg reports.
OpenAI - OpenAI’s head of robotics, Caitlin Kalinowski, resigned, citing the company’s deal to deploy AI models within the Pentagon’s classified network, Bloomberg reports. In a post on X, Kalinowski said AI has an important role in national security, but objected to surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorisation.

COMMUNICATIONS

Live Nation (LYV) - Live Nation is close to settling a federal antitrust lawsuit over alleged monopolisation of the live music industry without divesting Ticketmaster, according to Bloomberg. Settlement talks have intensified since the trial began on 2nd March, and a final agreement could be announced in the coming days.
Tencent (TCEHY), Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - Tencent intends to invest several hundred million dollars in Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner, Bloomberg said, participating as a passive investor.
NetEase (NTES) - NetEase will stop funding Nagoshi Studio, led by Yakuza creator Toshihiro Nagoshi, as part of its broader effort to shrink game development activities. Employees were informed on Friday, according to Bloomberg, and a NetEase spokesperson confirmed that financing for the studio will end in May.
Nintendo (NTDOY) - Nintendo filed a lawsuit in the US Court of International Trade seeking refunds for duties paid under President Trump’s tariffs. In a filing, the company said the tariffs were unlawfully collected and requested a prompt refund.
Disney (DIS) - Disney’s Pixar film Hoppers opened at USD 46mln (vs Disney’s expectations for between USD 35-40mln) in US and Canadian cinemas, making it the top-grossing film of the weekend. Disney said it was the strongest opening for a new Pixar cast since Coco debuted with USD 50.8mln in 2017.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon Pay is expanding its vehicle insurance portfolio, according to a statement. Meanwhile, Amazon Pharmacy now offers Zepbound KwikPen from Eli Lilly, with prescriptions starting at USD 299/month for the 2.5 mg starter dose and home delivery.
Signet Jewelers (SIG) - Sees Q4 revenue at 2.34-2.35bln (exp. 2.33bln); sees FY26 revenue 6.8bln (exp. 6.8bln).
Lamb Weston (LW) - Starboard Value has built a sizeable stake in Lamb Weston and is pressing the company to accelerate improvements and cost cutting to lift its underperforming shares, WSJ reports. Starboard is now one of Lamb Weston’s biggest shareholders, though the exact size of its stake could not be learned.
Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Volkswagen dealers are opposing the carmaker’s plan to sell Scout Motors SUVs and trucks directly to consumers, with the latest in a series of lawsuits seeking to block the move, WSJ reports. The dispute centres on Volkswagen bypassing dealerships for the new Scout brand, which will offer US-built electric and hybrid vehicles.
Renault (RNLSY) - Renault CEO is expected to present a cost-cutting plan focused on making the carmaker more like lower-cost Chinese rivals, Bloomberg said. The strategy includes using more technology from Geely to reduce development costs.
Kalshi, Polymarket - Kalshi and Polymarket are discussing fundraising rounds with investors at valuations of about USD 20bln each, according to the WSJ citing sources. The two prediction-market companies were last valued at about half that level late last year, the report adds.
Restaurant Brands (QSR) - Restaurant Brands International said New York Stock and Bond launched an unsolicited mini-tender for up to 100k shares at USD 43.60, 34.92% below the 30 Jan NYSE close of USD 66.99; it urged holders to reject the offer.

FINANCIALS

BlackRock (BLK) - BlackRock’s push into retail private credit has run into client withdrawals eight months after its USD 12bln acquisition of HPS Investment Partners, Bloomberg said. and the firm, which had highlighted the opportunity to sell complex debt products to retail investors, is now facing a rush for the exits by some existing clients.
Jefferies (JEF) - Rejected the Western Alliance (WAL) lawsuit, said Western Alliance’s claims over First Brands receivable loans are false and misleading. Said the loans were non-recourse to SPVs, with no Jefferies guarantee. Jefferies called the lawsuit meritless. Separately, its MFS exposure is USD 103mln, with an expected net hit below USD 20mln. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley downgraded JEF shares to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' with a USD 49 PT (prev. 78). The firm sees a wide risk-reward skew, as ongoing credit concerns are balanced against expected Investment Banking share gains.
KKR & Co. (KKR) - KKR is working with advisers on a potential sale of data centre cooling company CoolIT Systems for more than USD 3bln, the FT reports. The process is at a preliminary stage and may not lead to a deal.
Blackstone (BX) - Blackstone selected Citigroup to help prepare for a potential sale of Chinese packaging company ShyaHsin Packaging, according to Bloomberg. BX may seek a valuation of at least USD 1bln for the company, and a sale process could begin later this year.
Nasdaq (NDAQ) - Plans to launch an equity token design enabling tokenized shares that keep issuers central to ownership, governance, and investor engagement while maintaining regulated market infrastructure.
UBS Group (UBS) - UBS increased its 2025 bonus pool by 10% as Credit Suisse integration neared completion, while CEO Sergio Ermotti’s pay was unchanged at CHF 14.9mln, including CHF 12.1mln in variable compensation, according to its annual report.

HEALTHCARE

FDA - FDA chief science and medical officer Vinay Prasad will leave the agency at the end of April, NYT reports. He oversaw vaccines, drugs and gene therapies, overruled career scientists on some vaccine approvals, rejected Moderna’s (MRNA) mRNA flu vaccine application before the decision was reversed, and issued rejections for some rare-disease treatments. Meanwhile, the FDA is planning to ease some requirements for drugmakers to develop copycat versions of expensive biologic medications, Bloomberg reports, citing an FDA official.
Novo Nordisk (NVO), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) - Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers are expected to announce a new partnership on Monday for Novo to sell its weight-loss drug on the Hims platform, Bloomberg reports citing sources.
Pfizer (PFE) - Reported positive Phase 2 results for tilrekimig in Atopic dermatitis, meeting the primary endpoint with significant EASI-75 improvement vs placebo and showing 38.7%–51.9% placebo-adjusted response rates at Week 16.
Agilent Technologies (A) - Will acquire Biocare Medical for USD 950mln in cash; the deal is expected to boost growth and margins and become EPS accretive ~12 months after closing, with completion targeted by Q4 FY2026.
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Reported positive interim Phase 3 SUCCESSOR-2 results, with mezigdomide + carfilzomib + dexamethasone showing significantly improved progression-free survival vs carfilzomib/dexamethasone in relapsed or refractory Multiple myeloma.
Roche (RHHBY), Pfizer (PFE) - Roche said a late-stage trial of giredestrant combined with Pfizer’s Ibrance failed to meet its primary endpoint of a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival in patients with advanced breast cancer, WSJ reports. The study was the first of two late-stage trials for giredestrant.
Talkspace (TALK) - To be acquired by Universal Health Services (UHS) at USD 5.25/shr.
Roche (RHHBY) - Roche Chair said the company expects its agreement with the US government to keep medicines exempt from current import tariffs, but diagnostics remains exposed and could face renewed duties after 150 days, Reuters reports. Chair said diagnostics generated nearly CHF 14bln of sales in 2025, and that Roche has no plans to split off the division.
Regeneron (REGN) - Said partner Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group reported positive Phase 3 data for obesity drug olatorepatide, showing up to 19% weight loss at 48 weeks; Regeneron holds development and commercial rights outside Greater China for the dual GLP-1/GIP agonist.
AstraZeneca (AZN) - Enhertu was granted Priority Review in the US as post-neoadjuvant treatment for patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer. If approved, AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu has the potential to become a new standard of care in this early breast cancer setting.
GSK (GSK) - Agreed to grant Alfasigma worldwide rights to linerixibat, receiving USD 300mln upfront and USD 100mln upon US FDA approval.
Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY) - FDA approved Sotyktu for adults with active psoriatic arthritis. The approval was based on the POETYK PsA-1 and POETYK PsA-2 trials, in which Sotyktu 6mg once daily showed significant improvement in disease activity, measured by ACR20 and minimal disease activity response.
Agilent Technologies (A) - Agreed to acquire privately held Biocare Medical in an all-cash deal valued at USD 950mln, Bloomberg reports. Biocare makes instruments and materials used in cancer research. Agilent said the deal is expected to be accretive to EPS around 12 months after the deal closing.

INDUSTRIALS

GE Aerospace (GE) - To invest another USD 1bln in US manufacturing and to hire 5,000 US workers in 2026
GE Vernova (GEV) - Double upgraded at Rothschild & Co Redburn to 'Buy' from 'Sell' with a USD 1,100 PT (prev. 560). The firm said power and utilities demand and margins in both new equipment and service are far stronger than it expected. It now expects "sharp upgrades to guidance" for both Siemens Energy and GE Vernova at the end of 2026 and probably 2027.
Airbus (EADSY), Rheinmetall (RNMBY) - Airbus Defence and Space is considering a joint bid with Rheinmetall and OHB to build a Starlink-like internet service for Germany’s Bundeswehr under the SATCOM Bw Stage 4 project, according to Bloomberg. Airbus has informed the German Armed Forces Procurement Office that it plans to form a consortium with the two companies.
Plug Power (PLUG) - Plans to offer hydrogen-generated electricity in a potential special auction by the biggest US power grid later this year, Bloomberg reports. The chairman said the company is considering supplying as much as 250 megawatts and would need contracts of at least seven years. Plug is already in talks with hyperscalers, data centre companies and utilities.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Crop Prices - Palm oil surged as much as 10%, soybean oil rose and wheat neared a two-year peak as the Middle East war increased energy and fertiliser costs and threatened agricultural supplies. Bloomberg said disruption to crude flows boosted demand for crop-based biofuels, while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up crop nutrient prices. Iran’s low-cost urea and ammonia facilities, which account for about 5% and 11% of global fertiliser trade respectively, face disrupted access, and have already risen about 25% since the war began.
Coca Cola (KO) - Coca Cola said management expects World Cup to drive engagement and provide an activation tailwind over the coming months.

ENERGY

Chevron (CVX) - Reportedly in talks to acquire a 30% stake of Brazil fuel distributor Ipiranga, Brazil Journal reports.
Phillips 66 (PSX) - Phillips 66 appointed Howard Ungerleider and Kevin Meyers to its board, effective immediately. Glenn Tilton and Marna Whittington will retire and not seek re-election at the May 2026 annual meeting. After the meeting, the board will have 14 directors, 13 of whom are independent.

UTILITIES

Oklo (OKLO), Centrus Energy (LEU) - Companies will explore a joint venture for HALEU deconversion services at Centrus’ Piketon, Ohio site, next to Oklo’s planned 1.2 GW power campus, aiming to strengthen the US nuclear fuel supply chain.
Duke Energy (DUK) - Duke Energy launched an at-the-market equity programme allowing sales of up to USD 6bln in common stock. It is also offering USD 1bln of convertible senior notes due 2029.

MATERIALS

Standard Lithium (SLI) - Smackover Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor announced the signing of its first commercial offtake agreement for the South West Arkansas project with Trafigura Trading. Equinor JV Smackover Lithium signed a 10-year take-or-pay offtake deal with Trafigura to supply 8,000 tons/year of lithium carbonate from the South West Arkansas project, covering ~40% of planned Phase 1 capacity (22,500 t/yr) and supporting project financing ahead of FID.