Daily US Equity Opening News - Indices rally after Trump postpones strikes on Iran's energy & power infrastructure for five days

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +2.0%, NQ +1.8%, YM +2.1%, RUT +3.3%
DAY AHEAD: The US Day sees the release of the Chicago Fed national activity index for February (expected at 0.27 from 0.18). January’s construction spending figures are also due. After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate, which is currently modelling growth of 2.3% in Q1. CERAWeek gets underway (Mon-Fri), and today’s speakers include: DoE’s Wright, Chevron’s (CVX) Wirth, officials from ADNOC, NextEra (NEE), TotalEnergies (TTE), Baker Hughes (BKR), Occidental (OXY), Equinor (EQNR), SLB (SLB). Elsewhere, ECB chief economist Lane and ECB’s Cipollone are due to deliver remarks today. UK PM Starmer will chair a COBRA meeting on the Iran war’s economic impact, with ministers and the BoE Governor Bailey expected to attend; the meeting follows a call with President Trump on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
BROKER MOVES: VG double upgraded at Morgan Stanley; MDB upgraded at Mizuho. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: XLE, JETS, DKNG, CCL, RCL, SNPS MDB. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: JNJ, LLY, MRK, JPM, MS, VZ, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, META. For the full list, click here.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: CERAWeek, Japan CPI, UK inflation, UK retail sales, flash PMI data. Notable corporate earnings due this week include: PDD, CTAS, PAYX, JEF, CCL.
Click here for the CERAWeek schedule of key speakers.
Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly US earnings estimates.

NEWS:

IRAN

Trump - US President Trump posts on Truth Social that he is pleased to report that the US and Iran have had "very good and productive" conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East;postpones strikes for 5 day period. Thereafter, Iran's Fars News Agency, citing sources, reported that there are no direct communication with the US, nor through intermediaries; Trump backed down after hearing that Iran would target all power plants in West Asia. Tasnim, citing Iranian source, says Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions as long as the "psychological warfare" continues. Later, US President Trump said deal with Iran could be five days or sooner, via Fox Business; not sure what Iranian media is talking about, recent Iranian talks occurred last night.
War Duration - President Trump said he was considering “winding down” the Iran war as the US was “getting very close” to its military objectives, while rejecting a ceasefire. Trump added that other nations should guard the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz - US President Trump gave Iran a 48hr deadline to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US strikes on Iranian power plants. The threat was delivered in a late Saturday Truth Social post. Iran has already rejected the ultimatum and said it would respond in kind, stating that it would target critical infrastructure if Trump carries out his threats to strike Iranian power plants. Separately, Australia and the UAE joined a joint statement signed by 22 countries calling on Iran to stop attempts to block commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz; the group said they stand ready to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait.
Strait of Hormuz Passages - Two Indian-flagged LPG carriers, Jag Vasant and Pine Gas, are transiting the Strait of Hormuz on a route close to Iran’s coastline, according to ship-tracking data; the vessels moved north from the UAE coast toward Iran’s Qeshm and Larak islands early Monday. One of the vessels received an Iranian navy escort after diplomatic engagement by New Delhi. An oil tanker identified as ‘Nabiin’ signalled it had transited the Strait of Hormuz, the second so-called ‘zombie ship’ to cross the waterway in days; ship-tracking data showed it moving from the Persian Gulf on Sunday evening to the Gulf of Oman by Monday morning. Iran said it is prepared to allow Japanese-related vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after consultations between the two countries’ officials, Kyodo reports; Japan’s ForMin Motegi said it was not considering unilateral talks with Iran to secure passage through the Strait, and is focused instead on ensuring conditions where everyone can pass.
Iran Oil - The US allowed sales of Iranian oil and petrochemical cargoes already loaded onto tankers to help contain fuel-price rises caused by the Middle East war. The Treasury issued a general licence covering energy already on vessels as of Friday, with purchases authorised through 19th April.
US Reserve Release - The first barrels from President Trump’s planned 172mln bbl emergency oil release are set to reach the market soon, it was reported on Friday. The US Energy Department said about 45mln barrels will be released from the US SPR, meaning refiners and traders took about half of the initial 86mln barrels offered.
Crude Prices - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 oil forecasts, citing prolonged disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the largest-ever supply shock for the global crude market, WSJ reports. Its forecast assumes Strait of Hormuz flows remain at 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a one-month recovery. The bank raised its 2026 Brent forecast to USD 85/bbl (from USD 77), and WTI to USD 79/bbl (from USD 72). Elsewhere, UBS CEO Ermotti said energy prices are likely to remain elevated as investors assess the Middle East conflict’s impact on the global economy, and are likely to add inflation pressure to supply chains.
Global LNG - Global LNG exports fell to a six-month low as the Middle East conflict disrupted flows, offsetting recent supply additions from the US and other regions, Bloomberg said citing Kpler ship-tracking data. The 10-day moving average for LNG shipments dropped about 20% from the start of the month to 1.1mln tons, the lowest since September.
Middle East Energy Infrastructure - More than 40 energy assets across nine Middle East countries have been severely or very severely damaged by the war, IEA’s Birol said. The damage to oil fields, refineries and pipelines may prolong disruptions to global supply chains after the conflict ends, and assets will take time to return online, he added.
Europe - US ambassador to the UN Michael Waltz said Iran has shown it can launch longer-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting much of Europe. He said Iran has hidden some re-entry capability development in a so-called space programme.
European Energy - The EU told member states to begin refilling gas storage early to avoid summer supply competition and price spikes linked to the Iran war. Energy Commissioner Jorgensen also urged countries to lower storage targets to 80%, with deviations of 10ppts and a further 5ppts in unfavourable market conditions. Elsewhere, Iceland Foods chairman Richard Walker said the UK should consider a temporary cap on energy company profits to shield consumers from price spikes.
China-Iran - China’s state-owned refiners are exploring purchases of Iranian crude after Washington allowed the sale of some oil already loaded onto tankers to limit price rises linked to the Middle East war, according to Bloomberg. National Iranian Oil Co. representatives and intermediary traders have also sounded out other Asian refiners.

GEOPOLITICS

Russia - A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s key oil export hub Primorsk, damaged a fuel tank, according to local authorities.

TRADE

China - China Premier Li said China takes trading partners’ concerns about its large trade surplus seriously, and is ready to work with all parties to promote sound, balanced trade. The remarks came as China’s exports continued to boom at the start of 2026, and highlight Beijing’s concern that the surplus could strain ties with more countries during a truce with the US in the tariff dispute. PBoC Governor Pan defended the trade surplus, saying it is distributed across regions and industries worldwide through overseas investment by Chinese companies and banks.

MACRO

S&P 500 (SPX) - JPMorgan strategists last week cut their year-end S&P 500 target to 7,200 (from 7,500), saying Iran war uncertainty has reduced upside for risk assets. Its analysts cited an oil supply shock from disrupted Hormuz flows that could hurt corporate profits and economic growth.
Japan - Japan government bonds fell, pushing yields back toward multi-decade highs as the widening Middle East conflict fuelled inflation concerns. Yields are now near the highest since 1999. Japan’s top currency official said the government will take all possible steps as needed to respond to speculative market moves; he said some participants see speculative moves in crude oil futures affecting FX markets. Elsewhere, Japan’s largest labour union federation, Rengo, said workers secured an average pay rise of 5.26% (vs 5.46% last year), above 5% for a third straight year; base pay increases averaged 3.85% (vs 3.84% last year).
Bank of Korea - South Korea nominated BIS economic advisor Hyun Song Shin to lead the Bank of Korea. ING says his past remarks and current conditions point to a relatively hawkish stance.

TECH

Apple (AAPL) - Apple CEO Cook praised Chinese developers and local partners at the China Development Forum in Beijing, days after criticism from the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper over alleged monopolistic policies.
Nvidia (NVDA), TSMC (TSM) - Nvidia may redesign its next-generation Feynman AI platform because TSMC’s advanced 2-nanometer capacity is fully booked until 2028 and potentially beyond, amid strong demand, according to a report in Taiwan’s Economic Daily News. Feynman was unveiled in 2025 and is planned for release in 2028, and is due to follow Vera Rubin.
AMD (AMD) - Upstage is in talks with AMD to buy 10,000 MI355 AI accelerators as part of efforts to expand large-scale computing capacity in South Korea, Bloomberg reports. The CEO said he discussed the purchase with AMD’s chief executive last week, and wants to diversify beyond Nvidia (NVDA) chips.
Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (HXSCL) - South Korea’s first single-stock leveraged ETFs, linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, may debut as early as May, according to Maeil Business. Samsung and Mirae are preparing the products which aim to deliver two or three times the daily move of an underlying stock or index.
Synopsys (SNPS) - Elliott Investment Management has built a multibillion-dollar stake in Synopsys and plans to push the chip-design software maker to increase revenue from software and services, WSJ reports.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw resigned from its board effective immediately. The board now has eight directors, with no changes to the committee structure. The company also appointed DeAnna Luna as acting Chief Compliance Officer, effective immediately.
Big tech - Broadcasters urge EU to tighten rules for Big Tech in a smart TV stand-off, Reuters reports. Broadcasters want Google (GOOG), Amazon (AAPL), Samsung (SSNLF) TVs to fall under the EU's tech rules
STMicroelectronics (STM) - STM said China-manufactured STM32 microcontrollers have begun volume production, with first deliveries of fully made-in-China units to China-based customers under way.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) - Faces a key court test over its USD 14bln Juniper deal after state AGs challenged the Trump administration’s antitrust settlement. The states allege DOJ approval was improperly influenced by administration officials and connected advisers, despite the agency settling federal competition claims in June.
OpenAI - OpenAI plans to double headcount to about 8,000 by end of the year (from about 4,500), FT reports. Most new hires are expected in product development, engineering, research and sales. Meanwhile, OpenAI is in advanced talks to buy electricity from Sam Altman-backed fusion startup Helion Energy, Axios sources said. Meanwhile, OpenAI has hired Dave Dugan, a former top advertising executive at Meta (META) to lead ad sales as the AI startup works to strengthen its ties with major advertisers, via WSJ.

COMMUNICATIONS

Alphabet (GOOG), Reddit (RDDT) - WSJ reports AI is changing how companies get found online; instead of relying mainly on Google Search rankings driven by keywords and backlinks, visibility now depends more on whether AI tools such as ChatGPT and Claude treat a source as trustworthy and use it in direct answers, and companies are increasingly focused on how they are discussed online, including on Reddit (RDDT).
Meta Platforms (META) - CEO Mark Zuckerberg is building a personal AI agent to help him perform his role as Meta CEO, as the company pushes to embed AI across its operations, WSJ reports.
Tencent (TCEHY) - Tencent launched ClawBot, a tool integrating WeChat with the OpenClaw AI agent, allowing users to interact with the agent within the messaging app. The move deepens Tencent’s push into AI agents and follows launches by Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) of competing agent platforms and products in China.
Telecom Italia (TIIAY), Poste Italiane (PITAF) - Poste Italiane launched a cash-and-share bid to buy Telecom Italia for EUR 10.8bln, offering EUR 0.167 in cash plus 0.0218 newly issued Poste shares per TIM share, valuing TIM at EUR 0.635 per share, a 9.01% premium to Friday’s close, Reuters reports. Poste said it expects to complete the transaction by end of the year.
Electronic Arts (EA) - EA drew about USD 25bln of investor demand for a nearly USD 15bln debt offering to help fund its buyout; investors also placed about USD 9bln of orders for a roughly USD 4bln leveraged loan sale launched earlier last week, Bloomberg said.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Betting names - US senators are to introduce a bipartisan legislation on Monday to prohibit entities regulated by the CFTC, including prediction-market exchanges Kalshi and Polymarket’s US platforms, from listing contracts related to sporting events, WSJ reports.
Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon MGM’s “Project Hail Mary” opened to USD 140.9mln globally (exp. 100mln), including USD 80.5mln in North America (exp. 50mln), and USD 60.4mln from 82 international markets, becoming Amazon’s biggest box-office hit, Variety reports.
PepsiCo (PEP) - said it is mitigating geopolitical and cost pressures by sourcing 95% of ingredients locally and using commodity hedging, Bloomberg reports. Exec said the company also works closely with local growers, especially for potatoes, which supports resilience in upstream supply.
Tesla (TSLA) - A US federal jury found Elon Musk liable for defrauding Twitter shareholders over two 2022 statements about bots during his USD 44bln takeover bid. Damages have not been calculated, with the shareholders’ lawyer estimating about USD 2.5bln. Musk’s lawyers said he plans to appeal and called the verdict a bump in the road. Separately, Bloomberg reports that Musk said Tesla’s Terafab chip project will start in Austin, and be run jointly by Tesla and SpaceX; the initial site will be an advanced technology fab with equipment to make and test chips for robotics, AI and space data centres, with a smaller-scale facility preceding a larger one.
Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Volkswagen CEO Blume said restructuring will continue despite a rising order backlog, according to Bild. He said VW is applying clear manufacturing cost targets across plants in Germany, Europe and China to avoid costly overcapacity.
China Autos - Chinese carmakers are setting new innovation benchmarks through faster software iteration, Bloomberg reports, citing a Leapmotor C10 in Germany, whose driver-assistance issue was reported to engineers in Hangzhou and fixed with an over-the-air update before the driver finished a meeting, compared with weeks at European carmakers.
Goodyear Tire (GT) - approved an EMEA restructuring plan that will cut about 600 roles and create about 200, for a net reduction of about 400 positions. Pre-tax charges are estimated at USD 100-110mln, with cash outflows over 2026-2029. The company expects the actions to be substantially complete in 2028, and to lift EMEA operating income by about USD 35-40mln in 2028.
MongoDB (MDB) - Upgraded at Mizuho to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' with a USD 325 PT (prev. 290). The firm sees a "compelling" share setup post the company's fiscal Q4 report. MongoDB's growth profile "has inflected meaningfully" with fiscal 2026 net customer additions up 60% year-over-year, net revenue retention improving from 118% to 121%, and headcount growing just 1% against 23% revenue growth, which signals the business is "entering a new phase of efficient, durable growth". Mizuho also sees AI as a "structural tailwind" for MongoDB, with vibe coding expanding application creation and AI-enabled apps requiring more database workloads per application. It views the company's fiscal 2027 outlook as conservative.
Luxury Stocks - Luxury groups including LVMH (LVMUY), Kering (PPRUY) and Richemont (CFRUY) expanded store openings in Europe last year despite a wider sector slowdown, according to Cushman & Wakefield data cited by Bloomberg, which showed a 13% rise in new outlets on leading European luxury retail streets, with brands owned by the three companies accounting for nearly a third of those stores.
Prediction Markets - Nevada won a temporary restraining order barring Kalshi from offering event-based contracts tied to sports, elections and entertainment, WSJ reports. The court said Kalshi must obtain the required state gambling licences and bar users under 21 from using the platform for such contracts. The ban lasts 14 days, with a hearing set for 3rd April.

FINANCIALS

Private Credit, Blackstone (BX) - Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund BCRED posted a 0.4% loss in February, its first monthly decline since September 2022. The USD 83bln fund was flat over the first two months of 2026 after gaining 8% in 2025.
Private Credit - Private capital firms including Blackstone (BX), Bain Capital and Brookfield (BAM) are increasing focus on heavy assets with low obsolescence as AI reshapes investment priorities, Bloomberg reports. The so-called HALO trade includes manufacturers such as ship-engine and conveyor-belt makers, seen as less vulnerable to AI disruption.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) - Will invest JPY 287.4bln in Tokio Marine through subsidiary National Indemnity for a 2.49% strategic stake; the companies will also collaborate on reinsurance and M&A.
Fannie, Freddie - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders for mortgage-backed securities as bond spreads widen and volatility rises, Bloomberg reports. A source said the moves follow US President Trump’s directive two months ago for the companies to acquire USD 200bln of MBS to help lower mortgage rates and support housing affordability.
Ping An Insurance (PNGAY) - Ping An’s offshore investment arm is reconsidering its US exposure as the Iran war drives market volatility, Bloomberg reports.
BMPS (BMPS) - Monte Paschi’s board will on Monday discuss whether Luigi Lovaglio can remain CEO after he agreed to stand for another term on a rival minority shareholder slate, Bloomberg reports. His inclusion on the competing list is seen as incompatible with the bank’s interests and its push for a management change.

ENERGY

Venture Global (VG) - Venture Global and Vitol announced the execution of a new, binding agreement for the purchase of ~1.5MTPA of US LNG from Venture Global for five years commencing in 2026, to be supplied from Venture Global's portfolio. Meanwhile, shares were double upgraded at Morgan Stanley to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' with a USD 22 PT (prev. 8). The firm says expansion delays at Ras Laffan create a large LNG shortfall this year and mitigate oversupply risk in 2027 and 2028. Morgan Stanley says that even with a near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict, the global gas market will need to contend with refilling inventories amid a large supply loss, creating upside price risks. The firm upgraded its LNG industry view to In-Line and also upgraded Cheniere Energy (LNG) to 'Overweight'.
Sinpoec - Sinopec’s 2025 net profit fell 34% Y/Y to CNY 32.5bln (vs CNY 49bln in 2024) as weaker fuel demand and an oversupplied chemicals market reduced margins. It also set a flexible budget target for this year, and flagged a potential capex cut of up to 20% after its steeper-than-expected profit decline, adding that it wants room to adjust spending to market conditions as it faces global volatility and weak demand; most of any reduction is expected to be in chemicals.
West Texas NatGas - West Texas natgas prices turned negative as the region’s pipeline and export infrastructure could not absorb associated gas output produced alongside crude, Bloomberg reports. Higher oil prices linked to Iran war disruptions have kept drilling elevated, leaving excess gas to be flared even as buyers in other parts of the world seek supply, the report adds.

INDUSTRIALS

US Diesel Prices - WSJ reports diesel at USD 5 a gallon is raising costs for US truckers and could feed through to broader goods prices. One example cited refers to a long-haul driver spending about +40% more on diesel in a week than before the Iran war, prompting lighter loads and avoiding hilly routes.
United Airlines (UAL) - CEO Kirby warned oil could reach USD 175/bbl, sharply increasing jet-fuel costs. The airline is cutting capacity by 5ppts in the near-term on temporarily unprofitable routes because of already high fuel prices, and Kirby said it would not defer investments or furlough staff.
Rheinmetall (RNMBY) - Plans to take over the delayed F126 frigate project for the German Navy and expects to win the general contractor role this summer, Welt am Sonntag reports. The company aims to accelerate production and deliver the first of six planned frigates in H2 2031.
Pentair (PNR) - Chair David A. Jones will retire from the board at the end of his current term in May. T. Michael Glenn, a Pentair director since 2007 and former FedEx (FDX) Services CEO, will become chair following Jones’s retirement.
AeroVironment (AVAV) - Awarded a USD 117.3mln US Army contract for procurement and delivery of P550 Long Range Reconnaissance systems.

MATERIALS

Zijin Mining Group (ZIJMY), Chifeng Jilong Gold - Zijin Mining Group’s gold unit will acquire a controlling stake in Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. for CNY 18.26bln, cementing the group’s position as China’s top gold miner. Zijin Gold will buy existing mainland-listed shares and new Hong Kong shares, taking its holding in Chifeng to nearly 26%, the companies said.

HEALTHCARE

Eli Lilly (LLY) - China Commerce Minister Wang said he hopes Eli Lilly will deepen its commitment in China and pursue greater growth, according to a ministry statement. Wang told Lilly's CEO that recent China-US trade talks in Paris sent a positive signal for continued cooperation and greater business certainty.
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Said Opdivo received approval for two new classical Hodgkin lymphoma indications in the US and EU. The FDA approved Opdivo with doxorubicin, vinblastine and dacarbazine for previously untreated Stage III or IV cHL in adults and patients aged 12 and older. The European Commission approved Opdivo with brentuximab vedotin for relapsed or refractory cHL after one prior therapy.
Pfizer (PFE) - Recommended shareholders reject Tutanota’s unsolicited mini-tender offer for up to 1mln shares at USD 32.00 each, stating that the price depends on Pfizer closing above USD 32.00 before expiry, could result in a below-market price, is subject to multiple conditions, and Tutanota said it does not currently have financing.
Pfizer (PFE), Valneva (VLA FP) - Companies announced a Lyme Disease vaccine candidate demonstrates strong efficacy in Phase 3 VALOR trial. Vaccine candidate PF-07307405 (LB6V) demonstrated more than 70% efficacy in preventing Lyme disease in individuals aged five years and above. The investigational vaccine candidate was well-tolerated with no safety concerns identified at the time of analysis. Overall, results strengthen confidence in the vaccine candidate, and Pfizer is planning submissions to regulatory authorities.