Daily US Equity Opening News - Mixed JPM results; DAL guidance disappoints; INTC & AMD upgraded at KeyBanc

TODAY'S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, YM unch, RUT +0.4%
DAY AHEAD: The RCM/TIPP economic optimism index for January is due. In the later trade, the US monthly budget statement will be released. On the energy front, the EIA will publish its monthly STEO report, and afterhours, the API will publish its weekly inventory data; this week, the street looks for headline crude stocks to draw down by 2.8mln bbls, distillates are expected to build by 4.9mln bbls, and gasoline stocks are seen building by 4.4mln bbls. Today's speakers' slate includes: Fed's Musalem (2028 voter, hawkish) and Fed's Barkin (2027 voter, neutral) will speak. US President Trump will visit Michigan to promote US manufacturing, touring a Ford (F) factory in Dearborn, and addressing the Detroit Economic Club; the trip aims to counter job market and affordability concerns amid tariffs, reduced EV incentives, and Democratic criticism of his economic policies. Trump is due to deliver remarks at 14:00EST/19:00GMT. In supply, the US Treasury will auction USD 22bln of 30yr bonds. Today's corporate earnings docket includes: JPMorgan (JPM), Delta Air (DAL), Bank of New York Mellon (BK).
BROKER MOVES: AMD & INTC upgraded at KeyBanc; AA downgraded at Wells Fargo. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: AMD/INTC, DAL, JPM, CAH, BLK, ALB, AA, SNPS. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: MRK, NVDA, WMT, TMO, BSX, MCK, DHR, REGN, CRM, LLY. For the full list, click here.

NEWS

TRADE

US-Iran - US President Trump said any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on trade with the US. The White House provided no further details. Iran is facing major protests, hundreds of deaths, mass arrests, and international diplomatic concern. Bloomberg said the move risks undermining his trade truce with China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil. WSJ reports that the White House is weighing an Iranian offer to restart nuclear talks even as Trump leans toward authorising new military strikes; Vice President JD Vance and others are urging diplomacy first after Iran killed protesters during a two-week uprising over economic collapse and repression.
G7-China - G7 finance ministers and other officials met in Washington to discuss addressing vulnerabilities in critical minerals supply chains and countering China’s dominance in rare earths; Treasury Secretary Bessent urged derisking rather than decoupling.
US-Taiwan - Taiwan said it has reached broad consensus with the US on tariff talks, and is discussing a timetable for a concluding meeting, aiming to cut tariffs to 15% from 20%. An agreement could be announced by the end of January. Elsewhere, Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te faces legislative gridlock as he seeks to pass the island’s largest-ever defence budget amid opposition resistance, after recent clashes, including refusal to sign tax legislation and legal disputes over court reforms, as defence spending is urged by US President Trump.
US-Australia - Australia’s ambassador to the US Rudd will step down a year early after tensions linked to past criticism of US President Trump. PM Albanese said a successor will be named later, with Rudd leaving at the end of March to become global president of the Asia Society.

MACRO

Fed Chair Job - WSJ reports that some Trump administration officials and allies fear the DoJ’s criminal investigation into Fed chair Powell could unsettle markets and complicate Senate confirmations, with Treasury Secretary Bessent warning the president of potential fallout for nominees.
Fedspeak - Fed's Williams (voter) said monetary policy is well positioned, with no near-term need to cut rates, as he expects a healthy economy in 2026. He said inflation should return to 2% by 2027 while avoiding undue risks to the labour market. BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder, who has reportedly been interviewed for the Fed Chair role, reiterated his view that the central bank should cut interest rates to 3%, calling it closer to equilibrium, and said he was not concerned about Fed independence.

TECH

NVIDIA (NVDA) - NVIDIA said it does not require upfront payment for H200 chips, rebutting reports of strict terms for Chinese buyers, Reuters reports. Chinese firms ordered more than 2mln chips, though China’s stance remains uncertain amid US trade tensions, the report adds.
Microsoft (MSFT) - President Trump said that Microsoft will make changes to prevent consumers paying higher electricity bills as it expands AI data centres. He said his administration is working with technology companies, noting that utility companies charged consumers 6% more for electricity in August. Elsewhere, Microsoft President Smith warned that Chinese AI firms are outpacing US rivals outside the West, citing rapid adoption of DeepSeek models driven by low cost and state subsidies. Company research showed strong uptake in Africa and other restricted markets, while US groups focus on proprietary, paid models.
SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Plans to invest USD 12.9bln to build an advanced AI memory chip packaging plant in Cheongju, starting construction in April, targeting completion by end-2027 to meet rising AI-driven demand.
TSMC (TSM) - Planning a major expansion in Arizona as part of a proposed US–Taiwan trade deal, as the Trump administration seeks to reshore high-tech chip manufacturing and Taiwan aims to reduce US import duties, according to the WSJ citing sources.
OpenAI - Expected to run a Super Bowl advertisement for a second consecutive year, airing a 60-second commercial during NBC’s broadcast of Super Bowl LX, as competition intensifies among AI companies seeking to attract users and address public concerns about the technology, WSJ reports.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Tesla (TSLA) - Samsung will supply 5G modem solutions to Tesla starting with its Robotaxi EVs, with deliveries beginning this year after testing. The partnership expands earlier collaboration, including a USD 17bln AI chip deal, as Tesla reduces reliance on Qualcomm (QCOM) amid geopolitical supply chain shifts.
Xiaomi (XIACY), Qualcomm (QCOM) - Xiaomi is expanding its in-house XRing chip strategy, developing the next-generation XRing O2 on TSMC’s N3P process and planning to extend the processors beyond smartphones, increasing competitive pressure on MediaTek and Qualcomm, according to market sources cited by the DigiTimes.
ams OSRAM - Confirmed it is in advanced talks to sell certain businesses as part of its accelerated deleveraging plan announced in April 2025, targeting divestment proceeds well above EUR 500mln, while safeguarding its Premstaetten, Austria site and without assurances on transaction completion.
Five9 (FIVN), Alphabet (GOOG) - Five9 announced an expanded partnership with Google Cloud, launching a joint Enterprise CX AI solution that integrates Five9’s AI-driven CX platform with Google Cloud’s Gemini Enterprise, Gemini models and Vertex AI.
Strategy (MSTR) - Director Carl Rickertsen purchased 5k shares on 12th January for a total USD 779.4k.
AMD (AMD) - Upgraded at KeyBanc to 'Overweight' from 'Sector Weight' with a USD 270 PT. KeyBanc writes that AMD is largely sold out in server central processing units in 2026. KeyBanc's supply chain checks indicate the recent surge in hyperscaler demand has led to AMD to almost being completely sold out of server CPU in 2026 and is potentially considering a price increase of 10%-15% in Q1. The firm believes MI355 demand and supply of MI455 support AI revenues of USD 14-15bln this year for AMD.
Intel (INTC) - Upgraded at KeyBanc to 'Overweight' from 'Sector Weight'. KeyBanc notes Intel is largely sold out in server central processing units in 2026. The firm expects "outsized" data center demand from hyperscalers this year to be a "significant tailwind" for Intel's data center and AI revenue. Channel checks indicate Intel is almost sold out for the year in server CPU, and given the strength in demand, the company is considering a 10%-15% price increases, the firm argued.
Synopsys (SNPS) - Downgraded at Piper Sandler to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' with a USD 520 PT (prev. 602). The firm believes Synopsys could see "prolonged headwinds" to growth as the semiconductor industry undergoes an "enormous" reallocation of engineering, materials, and fabrication capacity to AI and high-performance data center chips. Piper believes consumer designs are being "crowded out," with limited fabrication infrastructure being bid away by AI. This is a risk for Synopsys' USD 1.75bln intellectual property business, Piper argued.
Via Transportation (VIA) - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 44 PT (prev. 52). The shares now trade at a discount to peers despite Via offering two-times faster growth. The firm said Via shares are down 50% off recent highs, which is largely attributable to elevated investor expectations for Via's first quarter as a public company. Goldman continues to believe Via's long-term opportunity is "significant as referenceability improves and the company continues launching new offerings."

COMMUNICATIONS

Alphabet (GOOGL) - Google to develop and manufacturing high-end smartphones in Vietnam this year, Nikkei Asia reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. Google will begin new product introductionsfor its Pixel, Pixel Pro, and Pixel Fold phones in Vietnam, with development of the lower-end Pixel A series remaining in China for now.
Charter Communications (CHTR) - Downgraded at Wells Fargo to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 180 PT (prev. 240). Wells Fargo thinks the broadband market will remain competitive with fiber and fixed wireless access taking more share from cable in 2026. Charter is facing lower net additions, challenged growth at Cox, and a free cash flow to equity story that requires subscribers to stabilize. Wells no longer sees "meaningful differentiation" for Charter.
Meta Platforms (META) - Plans to cut around 10% of its Reality Labs staff as it shifts priorities from Metaverse Virtual Reality products towards AI, reallocating budgets, data centres and wearables, NYT reports. Augmented reality teams, including smart glasses, are largely expected to be spared.

FINANCIALS

JPMorgan (JPM) Q4 2025 (USD) EPS 4.63 (exp. 4.97), Revenue 45.8bln (exp. 46.11bln). Results included 2.2bln credit reserve established for the forward purchase of AAPL credit card portfolio. Credit loss provisions for credit losses 4.66bln. FICC revenue 5.38bln (exp. 5.27bln), IB Revenue 2.55bln (exp. 2.665bln), Equity sales and Trading revenue 2.86bln (exp. 2.7bln). Sees FY26 NII of 103bln (exp. 100.38bln), market dependent; sees FY26 NII ex-markets of 95bln (prev. 95bln). CEO commentary: "The US economy has remained resilient. While labour markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy." "These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, and the Fed’s recent monetary policy. However, as usual, we remain vigilant, and markets seem to underappreciate the potential hazards—including from complex geopolitical conditions, the risk of sticky inflation, and elevated asset prices.” Meanwhile, CFO said consumers and small business remains resilient and they are not seeing deterioration in consumer credit; said US President Trump's plan cap on interest rates on credit cards will be very bad consumers.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 2.02 (exp. 1.91), Revenue 5.19bln (exp. 5.14bln); sees 2026 total revenue +/- 5% Y/Y.
Financials Issuance - Major US banks are preparing heavy bond issuance after earnings, with dealers forecasting about USD 60bln of high-grade sales led by the six largest lenders, Bloomberg reports. Barclays estimates around USD 35bln this month, potentially rising to USD 55bln by quarter-end.
Citigroup (C) - Plans to cut about 1k jobs this week, as part of a plan announced two years ago to reduce the workforce by 20k by the end of this year, Reuters reports citing a source.
BlackRock (BLK) - Cutting hundreds of jobs, reducing its global headcount by about 1%, according to Bloomberg. The reductions affect roughly 250 employees across the firm, including staff in investment and sales teams.
Morgan Stanley (MS) - Morgan Stanley raised Asia banker bonuses by about 20% after nearing a record USD 10bln in regional revenue, driven by strong equity trading, prime brokerage and wealth management, with investment banking and capital markets fees approaching USD 1bln, BBG reports.
UBS Group (UBS) - UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti plans to step down in April 2027 after leading the integration of Credit Suisse, FT reports citing sources. His planned departure comes as UBS disputes Swiss proposals to raise capital requirements by about USD 24bln and prepares a succession process. Ermotti said proposed Swiss banking reforms go too far and risk undermining competitiveness, calling the process political, and adding that he hopes for greater clarity by H2 2026.
US Bancorp (USB) - To acquire BTIG for USD 725mln; transaction is expected to close in Q2 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and satisfaction of applicable closing conditions. The transaction is expected to have a negligible 2026 earnings per share impact and decrease US Bancorp’s Common Equity Tier 1 Capital ratio by approximately 12bps at the time of closing. The transaction will have no impact on near-term capital return plans.
CME Group (CME) - Will change how it sets margins for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures following sharp price swings, shifting to margins calculated as a percentage of notional value rather than fixed dollar amounts, according to a notice cited by Bloomberg.
Regions Financial (RF) - Said CFO Turner will retire on 31st March after nearly 40 years in finance, including 20 years at the bank. Anil Chadha, currently controller and head of corporate finance, will succeed him as CFO.
Crypto - A Senate Banking Committee panel released a bipartisan manager’s amendment to proposed crypto market structure legislation, allowing digital-asset companies to continue offering rewards to customers holding stablecoins, ahead of a planned markup meeting later this week, Bloomberg reports.

HEALTHCARE

AbbVie (ABBV) - Announced a voluntary agreement with the Trump administration to expand access and affordability, provide low Medicaid prices and invest USD 100bln in US-based research, development and manufacturing over the next decade, while expanding TrumpRx offerings, in exchange for tariff and future price mandate exemptions.
Pfizer (PFE) - CEO Bourla said it is in talks with the Trump administration to obtain priority review vouchers after rivals received fast-track FDA reviews through pricing agreements, Bloomberg reports. The vouchers can cut drug review times to as little as one month from up to a year.
Merck (MRK) - Said it wants to pursue more deals, including multi-billion dollar acquisitions, citing strategic opportunities rather than balance sheet constraints. The CEO made the comments at a JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.
Bayer (BAYRY) - Bayer's pharmaceuticals unit is returning to growth as new cancer and kidney disease drugs offset revenue lost to patent expirations, an exec said, describing the business as turning a corner and a comeback story, Bloomberg reports.
Thermo Fisher (TMO), NVIDIA (NVDA) - Thermo Fisher and NVIDIA announced a strategic collaboration to develop AI-based laboratory automation, combining Thermo Fisher’s scientific instruments and software with NVIDIA’ s AI infrastructure to improve laboratory processes.
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) - Quest Diagnostics targets about USD 1.0bln in dividends over the 2025-2027 period, projecting USD 4.5–5.0bln operating cash flow, USD 1.5–1.7bln capex, USD 3.0–3.3bln FCF, and about USD 0.7bln of share buybacks; sees a +7-9% EPS CAGR, and +4-5% revenue growth CAGR.
Cardinal Health (CAH) - Raised FY26 outlook; adj. EPS seen at least USD 10.00 (exp. 9.86, prev. 9.65-9.85). The company expects that its Specialty revenues will surpass USD 50bln in fiscal 2026, marking a 16% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over three years.
BioMarin (BMRN) - Backed FY25 adj. EPS view excluding write-down impact (write-down impact seen between -0.60 to -0.64/shr); revenue seen at USD 3.2bln (exp. 3.17bln); expects a ROCTAVIAN-related asset write-down of USD 230–260mln in Q4, of which USD 120–125mln will reduce FY25 adj. income and adj. diluted EPS, based on around 200mln diluted shares. Separately, the company appointed Arpit Dave as EVP and Chief Digital and Information Officer.
Revvity (RVTY) - Sees FY25 EPS exceeding upper end of prior view of USD 4.90-5.00 (exp. 4.91); sees Q4 revenue of ~USD 772mln (exp. 728.1mln).
Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) - Sees Q4 total US net product sales at USD 127mln (exp. 142.18mln). The Company recently received additional information requests from the FDA to further characterize the clinical benefit of FILSPARI and recently submitted responses to address the Agency’s questions, which are currently under review by the Agency.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

EV Automakers - At CES 2026, the global auto industry focus is shifting away from software-defined vehicles toward the physical limits of computing in fuel-powered cars, giving EV a competitive edge as their architectures better support rising computing demands, according to the DigiTimes.
China EV Automakers - Shares of Chinese EV makers rose overnight after the European Commission said it was considering a minimum price system to replace import tariffs.
Wayfair (W), Alphabet (GOOG) - Wayfair has partnered with Google as a foundational collaborator on the Universal Commerce Protocol, an open standard intended to enable more seamless and secure interactions between AI agents and retailers’ platforms.
US Foods (USFD) - US Foods was awarded a maximum USD 544.46mln contract for full-line food distribution for the US Navy, Army National Guard, Air National Guard and Marine Corps.

INDUSTRIALS

L3Harris Tech (LHX) - Announced a proposed partnership with the Department of War to significantly increase capacity to build solid rocket motors that power vital US and allied missiles. L3Harris and the DoW have agreed to the terms of a proposed DoW investment in L3Harris' Missile Solutions business through a USD 1bln convertible preferred security, which would automatically convert into common equity upon an initial public offering. Consistent with the terms of the proposed investment, L3Harris intends to pursue an IPO of the Missile Solutions business in H2 2026, creating a public company focused on delivering critical propulsion systems at unprecedented speed and scale.
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.55 (exp. 1.53), Revenue 16.0bln (exp. 14.72bln); FY26 EPS 6.50-7.50 (exp. 7.22); sees Q1 EPS at 0.50-0.90 (exp. 0.72).
Boeing (BA) - Aviation Capital Group plans to order 50 Boeing 737 Max aircraft, split between 25 737-8 Max and 25 737-10 Max.
General Dynamics (GD) - Awarded a USD 988mln contract in December to modernise US Navy C5ISR systems, with a one-year base, four one-year options and a six-month option.

REAL ESTATE

Institutional Homebuying - Wall Street homebuyers unsettled by President Trump’s threat are discussing counter-proposals to avoid exclusion from the housing market. Pretium co-president Stephen Scherr said industry talks have begun on potential projects the administration could consider to defuse the risk.
NY Homebuilding - New York is preparing to loosen its environmental law to speed up and cut the cost of homebuilding, with Governor Kathy Hochul set to propose reforms exempting most housing projects from the State Environmental Quality Review Act, subject to approval by state lawmakers, WSJ reports.
Crown Castle (CCI), EchoStar (SATS) - Crown Castle said it terminated its wireless infrastructure agreement with Dish Wireless after payment defaults, and is seeking to recover more than USD 3.5bln in remaining payments owed. Dish notified partners in September 2025 that it was discontinuing its network business after spectrum sales exceeding USD 40bln.

MATERIALS

Lithium - Deutsche bank upgraded Albemarle (ALB) to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 185 PT, citing the firm entering 2026 with a "more optimistic and bullish stance" on the lithium sector with spot pricing up about 139% from its late June lows. The firm also cites an "influx of investor interest back into the sector." The bank also upgraded Lithium Argentina (LAR) to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 8.30 PT and upgraded SQM (SQM) to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 88 PT.
Alcoa (AA) - Downgraded at Wells Fargo to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' with a USD 71 PT (prev. 58). Heading into 2026, the firm is downgraded four names (AA, KNF, KALU, CRH ) and upgraded one (CSTM) in the construction materials, mining, special metals and steel, to express caution on public infrastructure and commodity price momentum after a strong month.

UTILITIES

Orsted A/S (DNNGY) - A US judge ruled that Orsted can resume construction of the Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island while it challenges a federal stop-work order, Bloomberg reports. The court stated that the nearly 90% complete project would suffer irreparable harm if halted during litigation.

GEOPOLITICS

Europe-Russia - French President Macron and Italian PM Meloni are pushing EU discussions with the Kremlin to protect European security interests and signal leverage to Washington, Politico reports. Some capitals support engagement despite limited expectations, while the European Commission says talks are premature without signs of Russian willingness.
China-Japan - Japan defence minister Shinjiro Koizumi said the administration is assessing the impact of China’s decision to restrict exports of dual-use goods for military purposes, adding that Tokyo would take countermeasures, and was demanding a rollback of the ban covering more than 800 items, including rare earths.
US-Greenland - German foreign minister Wadephul is optimistic that Europe can reach a compromise with the US over Greenland after renewed tensions from Trump’s threats, adding he hopes the US will join a new NATO Arctic mission to support Greenland’s security.