Daily US Equity Opening News - MRVL jumps after AI-driven earnings beat; GAP falls after soft FY26 guidance

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• US INDEX FUTURES: ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4%, YM -1.1%, RUT -1.8%
• DAY AHEAD: US Business Inventories for December is due. Today’s speakers’ slate includes: Fed’s Daly (2027 voter, dove; no text expected, but there will be a Q&A), Fed’s Paulson (voter, dovish; text and Q&A expected), Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk; no text expected, but Q&A is), Fed’s Collins (2028 voter, neutral; text expected, but no Q&A), Fed’s Hammack (voter, hawk; text and Q&A expected); Fed’s Waller (voter, dove), Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) and Fed’s Miran (voter, uber dove) will give TV interviews. In energy, Baker Hughes will release its weekly rig count data. On today’s CRA slate, Scope will potentially review Germany (AAA), DBRS on Greece (BBB), and Fitch on France (A+).
• BROKER MOVES: Deluge of MRVL upgrades after strong earnings; TTD downgraded at Wedbush. For the full list, click here.
• MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: WAL/JEF, MRVL, COST, GAP, PBR, NKE. For the full list, click here.
• US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: ZG. For the full list, click here.

NEWS

GEOPOLITICS:

• Strait of Hormuz - Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted amid the Middle East conflict, with transits falling to single-digit levels and only two confirmed commercial crossings in the past 24 hours, according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre.
• Energy Markets - Interior Secretary Burgum said the Trump administration is considering a range of measures to address rising oil and gasoline prices amid the Iran war, adding that both immediate and longer-term options are under review. Bloomberg reports that the administration is not currently planning to have the Treasury trade oil futures to influence prices.
• Hormuz Security Measures - Goldman Sachs said the oil market lacks confidence that US security measures to protect tankers in the Strait of Hormuz will resolve the disruption. The bank cited concerns about the practicality of naval escorts given the large number of vessels and questions over their effectiveness against drone attacks.
• China-Iran - China is in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for crude oil and Qatari LNG vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as the US-Israeli war with Tehran intensifies, Reuters reports.
• Qatar LNG - Qatar is offering at least two LNG tankers for lease while its Ras Laffan export facility remains shut due to the Middle East war. The vessels are under long-term charter by QatarEnergy, and are currently located off the west coast of Africa.
• Congress - The US House voted 219-212 against legislation that sought to halt US military strikes on Iran, with several Democrats joining most Republicans to reject the war powers resolution. The measure was largely symbolic after a similar effort failed a procedural vote in the Senate.
• India - The US issued a temporary waiver allowing India to increase purchases of Russian oil amid disruptions to energy flows caused by the Persian Gulf conflict. The licence covers transactions for Russian crude and petroleum products loaded before 5th March and delivered to India; the license expires on 4th April. Separately, the Economic Times reports that India has directed refiners to maximise LNG production and supply the fuel exclusively to state-run companies.

TECH

• AI Chip Exports - US officials are considering new rules for exporting AI chips that could require foreign countries to invest in US AI data centres or provide security guarantees to access large shipments, Reuters reports. The proposal would introduce licensing and monitoring requirements for chip exports and mark a shift from the Biden-era approach that largely exempted close US allies.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - Together AI, a cloud computing startup backed by Nvidia, is in talks to raise funding at a valuation of about USD 7.5bln, according to The Information.
• SK Hynix (HXSCL), Nvidia (NVDA) - SK Group chair Chey Tae-Won is expected to attend Nvidia GTC 2026 on 16th March, where he is likely to hold talks with NVDA CEO Jensen Huang, DigiTimes reports. Talks are expected to focus on the upcoming AI accelerator and related supply chain cooperation involving SK Hynix.
• SoftBank (SFTBY), OpenAI - SoftBank is seeking a bridge loan of up to USD 40bln, with a roughly 12-month tenor, primarily to finance its investment in OpenAI, Bloomberg reported. Four lenders, including JPMorgan (JPM) are expected to underwrite the facility.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) - Marvell shares rose in extended trading after the chipmaker reported better than expected quarterly results, supported by robust demand for its AI-related products. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.80 (exp. 0.79), Revenue 2.22bln (exp. 2.21bln). The CEO said growth was led by robust demand in data centre markets and highlighted record design wins during FY26, which are expected to support future growth as bookings continue to increase at a record pace. Sees Q1 EPS of 0.74-0.84 (exp. 0.74) and Q1 revenue of 2.4bln +/-5% (exp. 2.28bln), with gross margin expected between 58.25-59.25%; expects Y/Y revenue growth to accelerate each quarter during FY27, supported by continued strength in the data centre business.
• Palantir (PLTR) - A US judge granted Palantir an order blocking three former employees linked to Percepta AI from attempting to poach staff and use confidential information. The court found the individuals likely violated non-solicitation and confidentiality commitments made to Palantir.
• Uber Technologies (UBER) - Exploring expanding subscription offerings for drivers and couriers globally, according to a job listing seeking a product manager to develop new subscription packages and oversee global testing and expansion of the model.
• Samsara (IOT) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.18 (exp. 0.13), Revenue 444.3mln (exp. 422.32mln).; ARR reached 1.9bln, +30% Y/Y, with 432mln of net new ARR added during the year (+21% Y/Y). The CEO said performance was driven by the scale of the company’s proprietary data platform. Sees Q1 EPS between 0.12-0.13 (exp. 0.12) and Q1 revenue of 454-456mln (exp. 444.33mln). Sees FY27 EPS between 0.65-0.69 (exp. 0.58), sees FY27 revenue at 1.965-1.975bln (exp. 1.92bln).
• Anthropic - Will challenge in court a Pentagon decision declaring the company a threat to the US supply chain under authorities typically used against foreign adversaries.
• Trade Desk (TTD) - Downgraded at Wedbush to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' with a USD 23 PT, as the firm does not believe the incremental value of the rumored deal to moentise Open AI's ChatGPT inventory warrants the current share price. While Wedbush views this as a vital long-term strategic move against AI search cannibalisation, the current price action overestimates near-term accretion while ignoring the inevitable DSP dilution and disintermediation risks inherent in partnering with a platform of OpenAI's scale.

FINANCIALS

• Western Alliance (WAL), Jefferies (JEF) - Said in an 8K that it has been informed by Jefferies that USD 126.4mln owed under forbearance pact won't be paid as agreed; firm files complaint vs Jefferies and Leucadia Asset management alleging breach of contract and fraud. The complaint is related to a commercial loan collateralised by accounts receivable purchased from First Brands. Wester Alliance says financial impact substantially mitigated through realization of securities sale gains and expense reductions. The company plans to offset the charge through USD 50mln in securities gains, of which ~USD 45mln have been realized quarter-to-date, and USD 50mln in expense reductions. Management said the actions should provide an aggregate offset of USD 100mln. Jefferies believes that the Western Alliance lawsuit is without merit and it will be defended vigorously.
• Carlyle (CG), UBS (UBS) - Carlyle Group and CVC Capital Partners agreed to share part of their performance fees with UBS in exchange for UBS distributing their investment products to wealthy clients, FT reports.

COMMUNICATIONS

• Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG) - A US House committee advanced a package of 12 bills aimed at improving children’s safety online, targeting platforms including Meta Platforms, Alphabet’s Google and TikTok.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

• Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon’s website and mobile app experienced malfunctions for some US users, with product listings and checkout features showing error pages.
• Nike (NKE) - Will implement organisational changes aimed at improving efficiency and profitability, with estimated pre-tax charges of around USD 300mln for the nine months ending February 2026, related to employee severance costs. Most of the charges are expected to be recognised in Q3.
• Costco (COST) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 4.58 (exp. 4.54), Revenue 69.6bln (exp. 69.32bln); comp sales +7.4% (exp. +6.72%). Paid executive memberships reached +9.5% Y/Y to 40.4mln; September 2024 US and Canada membership fee increase accounting for roughly one third of membership income growth. Management said tariffs remain highly fluid and complex, with recently removed tariffs replaced by new measures expected to remain in place for at least 150 days, making the precise product-level impact difficult to track. Said it lowered prices on several key items during the quarter, including eggs, cheese, coffee and selected paper products. It noted that potential instability in the Middle East could affect fuel costs and shipping schedules.
• Gap (GAP) - Gap shares fell in extended trading after it issued disappointing FY26 guidance, with investors concerned about tariff headwinds weighing on margins. Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.45 (exp. 0.46), Revenue 4.2bln (exp. 4.24bln); comp sales +3% Y/Y, the eighth straight quarter of positive comps; Gap brand +7%, Old Navy +3%, Banana Republic +4%, Athleta -10%. Authorised a new USD 1bln share repurchase programme. The CEO said it is gaining market share across income groups, improving its balance sheet. Sees Q1 revenue growth of +1-2% Y/Y (exp. 3.53bln), expects Q1 gross margin to decline around 150-200bps, including roughly 200bps of tariff impact. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 2.20-2.35 (exp. 2.33), FY26 revenue growth between +2-3% Y/Y (exp. 15.75bln), with an adj. operating margin of around 7.3-7.5%, and capex at ~650mln.
• Ford (F) - Recalling 1.74mln vehicles in the US after a defect in the Accessory Protocol Interface Module may overheat and disable the rearview camera, preventing the image from displaying. The recall affects certain Ford Bronco and Ford Edge models, according to the NHTSA.
• Aptiv (APTV) - Board approved the spin-off of its Electrical Distribution Systems business into a new publicly traded company, Versigent. Shareholders will receive one Versigent share for every three Aptiv shares.
• St. Joe Company (JOE), PulteGroup (PHM) - St. Joe announced a new builder relationship with PulteGroup and the execution of a contract for homesites in two gated communities along Highway 388 near Watersound West Bay centre in Bay County.
• US Foods (USFD) - Awarded a maximum USD 124mln contract from the Defense Logistics Agency for subsistence prime vendor support.

REAL ESTATE

• Whitestone REIT (WSR), Blackstone (BX), TPG (TPG) - Private equity firms including Blackstone and TPG have expressed interest in acquiring Whitestone REIT, which has hired BofA to oversee a potential sale process, Reuters reports. The company is also facing proxy fights from Emmett Investment Management and former CEO James Mastandrea, while MCB Real Estate previously offered USD 15.20/shr to buy the firm.

INDUSTRIALS

• Maersk (AMKBY) - Maersk will temporarily suspend the FM1 service linking the Far East and Middle East and the ME11 service linking the Middle East and Europe following a risk assessment tied to the escalating conflict in the Gulf. Gulf shuttle services are also suspended, while the ME1 route will drop the Jebel Ali call and continue via India and Oman.
• FedEx (FDX), United Parcel Service (UPS) - Bloomberg notes that FedEx is close to surpassing UPS in market value for the first time, as UPS’s lead narrowed to less than USD 1bln. At Thursday’s close, UPS had a market value of about USD 88.35bln vs FedEx’s USD 87.78bln, with UPS briefly falling below FedEx during the trading session.
• Deutsche Lufthansa (DLAKY) - FY25 revenue EUR 39.6bln (exp. 39.8bln), net income EUR 1.34bln (vs 1.38bln Y/Y); said geopolitical developments, particularly the situation in the Middle East, have increased uncertainty around the outlook. Sees FY26 adj. EBIT and revenue above 2025 levels, and sees adj. FCF of around EUR 0.9bln (vs 1.19bln Y/Y). Management also said it is evaluating additional long-haul capacity to Asia and Africa as disruptions affecting Middle Eastern carriers reshape passenger flows and create opportunities for European operators.
• Boeing (BA) - Director Mortimer Buckley purchased 2,230 shares on 3rd March, for a total USD 500k.
• Tutor Perini (TPC) - CEO Gary Smalley purchased 10K shares on 4th March, for a total USD 732.4k.
• RTX (RTX) - Awarded a USD 256.26mln contract modification to procure advanced long-lead materials for F135 propulsion system spares supporting the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Awarded a USD 132.92mln contract modification for the F-35 air system.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Completed its 83rd launch with the “Insight At Speed Is A Friend Indeed” mission from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand.

ENERGY

• Petrobras (PBR) - Reported profit above estimates as strong oil production and record exports offset weaker crude prices. Q4 2025 (BRL): Adj. EBITDA BRL 59.9bln (exp. 59.3bln), Revenue 127.4bln (exp. 118.1bln). Plans to distribute BRL 8.1bln in interest on equity for the quarter. Results were supported by record exports and stronger oil and gas output, with Brazilian oil production reaching 2.5mln BPD (+20% Y/Y), above annual guidance, helping offset a 14.7% decline in Brent crude prices. Exports of oil and derivatives reached a record 1.2mln BPD as it expanded customers and increased shipments to Asia; exports to Europe and the US declined. FY25 capex reached USD 20.3bln (around 10% above the company’s target, but within guidance ranges).
• Sable Offshore (SOC) - US Interior Secretary Burgum said the government is considering invoking the Defense Production Act to ease permitting for Sable Offshore’s disputed plan to drill oil off the coast of California, according to Bloomberg.
• South Bow (SOBO) - Launched an open season to secure binding long-term shipping commitments for a revival of part of the Keystone XL Pipeline. If approved by the Trump administration, the project could increase Canadian crude exports to the US by over 12%, though additional pipeline links to US refining hubs would also need to be built.
• APA Corp. (APA) - APA will dual list its stock on Nasdaq Texas, a new listing venue headquartered in Dallas, aimed at companies with strong ties to the State.
• BP (BP) - Chairman Albert Manifold plans to shrink the board as part of the company’s reset strategy, with former Shell CFO Simon Henry among those leaving.

HEALTHCARE

• Pfizer (PFE) - China approved Pfizer’s obesity drug ecnoglutide for chronic weight management in overweight or obese adults. Pfizer obtained China rights to the treatment from Hangzhou Sciwind Bioscience in a USD 495mln deal in late Feb.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - FDA approved the combination of Tecvayli and Darzalex Faspro for adults with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma who have received at least one prior line of therapy including a proteasome inhibitor and an immunomodulatory agent.
• Medtronic (MDT) - MiniMed Group, a diabetes management company set to be separated from Medtronic, raised USD 560mln in a US IPO, after selling 28mln shares at USD 20 each, below the marketed range of between USD 25-28.
• Cooper Companies (COO) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.10 (exp. 1.03), Revenue 1.024bln (exp. 1.02bln). The CEO said results reflected strong demand for the premium MyDay contact lens portfolio and early traction from the MyDay MiSight launch; the remains on track to generate more than USD 2.2bln of FCF between 2026-2028. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 4.58-4.66 (exp. 4.51), and FY26 revenue of 4.306-4.346bln (exp. 4.32bln).

MATERIALS

• Glencore (GLNCY) - Reportedly offered a USD 800mln upfront prepayment in exchange for future ferrochrome shipments from Eurasian Resources Group, which would help finance Shakhmurat Mutalip’s USD 1.4bln bid for a 40% stake in the miner, FT reports.