Daily US Equity Opening News - NFLX declines to match PSKY bid for WBD; DELL surges after results and guidance

TODAY'S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.7%, NQ -0.8%, YM -0.9%, RUT -1.3%
DAY AHEAD: In the US, construction spending for December and the Chicago PMI for February are due. In energy, Baker Hughes will publish its weekly rig count data.
BROKER MOVES: LYV upgraded at Rothschild Redburn; DLTR downgraded at Citi. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Mag-7, XYZ, DELL, NFLX/WBD/PSKY, INTU, ZS, CRWV, FLUT, DUOL. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: ANET, GLW, REGN. For the full list, click here.

NEWS:

TECH

Dell Technologies (DELL) - Shares surged after the company delivered record Q4 results and guidance, driven by a sharp jump in AI server demand and a rapidly expanding backlog. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.89 (exp. 3.51), Revenue 33.38bln (exp. 31.68bln). AI-optimised server orders 64bln, with a record AI backlog of 43bln. Increased dividend +20%, added USD 10bln to its share repurchase authorisation. Sees Q1 adj. EPS 2.90 (exp. 2.39), sees Q1 revenue of 34.7-35.7bln (exp. 29.07bln). For FY27, sees adj. EPS at 12.90 (exp. 9.95), FY27 revenue at 138.0-142.0bln (exp. 124.87bln), and expects AI revenue of 50bln and operating income growth of 18%.
CoreWeave (CRWV) - CoreWeave shares fell in extended US trading, after profit missed and it issued revenue guidance below expectations. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.89 (exp. -0.68), Revenue 1.57bln (exp. 1.53bln). Said FY25 revenue exceeded 5bln, with the backlog widening to 66.8bln. Sees FY26 revenue between 12-13bln (exp. 12.03bln); sees Q1 revenue of 1.9-2.0bln (exp. 2.24bln); FY26 adj. operating income seen at 0.9-1.1bln, with margins rising low double digits by Q4. FY26 capex is expected to be at least USD 30bln. Anticipates exiting 2026 with annualised run-rate revenue of USD 17-19bln, growing to over USD 30bln by end-2027.
ASML Holding (ASML) - Said its next-gen high-NA EUV tools are ready for high-volume manufacturing, having processed 500k wafers with about 80% uptime, targeting 90% by year-end. The machines are intended to support advanced chip production for customers, including TSMC (TSM) and Intel (INTC). Full integration into manufacturing is expected within 2-3 years.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Apple (AAPL) - BBG reports that Samsung is assessing whether to release another super-thin smartphone after sales of last year’s Galaxy S25 Edge were comparatively lower than its other handsets, according to Mobile Experience COO Won-Joon Choi.
Anthropic - Anthropic said it will not accept US Defense Department's demands to allow “any lawful use” of its AI tools. The CEO said the company would forgo Pentagon work rather than permit mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons. The DoD has threatened to remove Anthropic from its supply chain if it does not comply.
Intuit (INTU) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.15 (exp. 3.68), Revenue 4.65bln (exp. 4.53bln). Global Business Solutions revenue +18% Y/Y to 3.2bln, Online Ecosystem revenue +21% to 2.5bln, Consumer revenue +15% to 1.5bln. Credit Karma revenue +23% to 616mln, TurboTax revenue +12% to 581mln. Sees Q3 adj. EPS between 12.45-12.51 (exp. 12.97), sees Q3 revenue +10% Y/Y at ~8.58bln (exp. 8.52bln). Backed FY26 adj. EPS guidance view of 22.98-23.18 (exp. 23.20), and FY26 revenue view of 21.0-21.2bln (exp. 21.20bln).
Block (XYZ) - Block surged in extended trading after it announced job cuts tied to a strategic shift towards AI, and raised FY guidance. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.65 (exp. 0.65), Revenue 6.25bln (exp. 6.22bln). Square GPV +10% Y/Y, Cash App monthly transacting actives reached 59mln, payback loans +22% Y/Y to 9.3mln. Announced a restructuring plan to reduce its workforce by more than 40%, to just under 6,000 employees; sees USD 450-500mln in related charges, largely in Q1. Sees Q1 gross profit +22% Y/Y to 2.8bln, sees Q1 adj. operating income of 600mln. Expects FY26 gross profit +18% at 12.20bln, and FY26 adj. operating income of 3.20bln. Morgan Stanley upgraded Block shares to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 93 PT (prev. 72). The firm sees faster growth and an expanded total addressable market for Block after its recent product enhancements. In addition, the company's opportunity in AI should increase its profitability and it believes Block has been "rapidly expanding" its total addressable market through product improvements.
Autodesk (ADSK) Q4 2025 (USD): Non-GAAP EPS 2.85 (exp. 2.64), Revenue 1.96bln (exp. 1.91bln); sees Q1 non-GAAP EPS at 2.82-2.86 (exp. 2.60) and Q1 revenue of 1.885-1.900bln (exp. 1.84bln). Sees FY27 non-GAAP EPS at 12.29-12.56 (exp. 11.65) and FY27 revenue of 8.10-8.17bln (exp. 7.97bln).
Duolingo (DUOL) - Duolingo shares slumped in extended trading after guidance missed expectations amid a strategic shift towards faster user growth that will weigh on bookings growth and profitability. Q4 2025 (USD): Revenue 282.9mln (exp. 275.95mln), adj. EBITDA 52.3mln. Q4 DAUs 40.5mln, MAUs 116.7mln. The board authorised a USD 400mln share repurchase programme. Sees Q1 revenue of 288.5mln (exp. 291.2mln), Q1 adj. EBITDA of 73.6mln, Q1 bookings of USD 301.5mln. Sees FY26 revenue of 1.197-1.221bln (exp. 1.26bln), FY26 adj. EBITDA of 299-305mln, FY26 bookings of 1.274-1.298bln. Scotiabank downgraded DUOL to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' with a USD 100 PT (prev. 300). The notes the guidance "put the bull case to bed, at least for the time being," as a pivot towards user growth over monetisation is "likely to not sit well with investors". Bookings growth of about 11% in FY26 would be a massive deceleration in growth from about 33% in FY25 and came in well below Street expectations of about 20%.
Synopsys (SNPS) - Downgraded at Morgan Stanley to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' with a USD 480 PT (prev. 550). The firm says Synopsys's Q1 revenue hit the upper end of guidance, but its underlying electronic design automation growth continues to decelerate. The firm also sees limited visibility on meaningful agentic and Ansys-driven profitability for Synopsys.
Zscaler (ZS) - Shares fell on soft guidance. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.01 (exp. 0.90), Revenue 815.75mln (exp. 798.82mln). Cited robust demand across AI Security. Sees Q3 adj. EPS between 1.00-1.01 (exp. 0.95), Q3 revenue between 834-836mln (exp. 831.9mln); sees FY26 adj. EPS of 3.99-4.02 (exp. 3.81), and FY26 revenue of 3.31-3.32bln (exp. 3.3bln).
NetApp (NTAP) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.12 (exp. 2.06), Revenue 1.71bln (exp. 1.7bln); sees Q4 adj. EPS at 2.21-2.31 (exp. 2.24) and Q4 revenue of 1.795-1.945bln (exp. 1.8bln). Raised FY26 adj. EPS view to 7.92-8.02 (exp. 7.89, prev. 7.75-8.05) and raised FY26 revenue view to 6.772-6.922bln (exp. 6.76bln, prev. 6.625-6.875bln).
Elastic (ESTC) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.73 (exp. 0.65), Revenue 449.88mln (exp. 438.42mln); sees Q4 EPS at 0.55-0.57 (exp. 0.56) and Q4 revenue of 445-447mln (exp. 442.4mln). Sees FY26 EPS at 2.50-2.54 (exp. 2.45) and FY26 revenue of 1.734-1.736bln (exp. 1.72bln).
Palantir (PLTR) - Upgraded at UBS to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 180 PT. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade and believes Palantir is a "premier growth story" in software and is "at the nexus of the two most powerful spending trends - AI and Data". At current valuation levels, UBS finds Palantir shares "very attractive" given its estimate for 70% revenue growth in 2026 and stable mid-50% margins. The firm says its latest checks support the view that Palantir is "facing a very strong demand backdrop.

FINANCIALS

Rocket Companies (RKT) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.11 (exp. 0.09), Revenue 2.69bln (exp. 2.3bln); sees Q1 adj. revenue of 2.6-2.8bln (exp. 2.29bln).
UBS Group (UBS) - UBS nominated former head of the BIS Agustin Carstens, and Apple (AAPL) vice president Luca Maestri to its board, after current board members William Dudley and Jeanette Wong decided not to stand for re-election.
Figure Technology (FIGR) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.06 (exp. 0.18), Revenue 159.9mln (exp. 157.68mln); announced USD 200mln share repurchase programme.
Mara Holdings (MARA) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS -4.52 (exp. -1.17), Revenue 202.31mln (exp. 251mln). Partnered with Starwood Capital Group and its Starwood Digital Ventures platform to convert and expand Mara’s power-rich sites into next-gen data infrastructure for enterprise, hyperscale, and AI demand. The deal uses a joint venture model to accelerate high-performance computing expansion while improving capital efficiency and leveraging MARA
Monte Paschi (BMPS ) - Plans to return about EUR 16bln to investors through 2030, as it seeks to realise benefits from the acquisition of Mediobanca. It will distribute 100% of net income through 2030, expects revenue to grow at a 4.6% CAGR, with adj. profit seen reaching about EUR 3.7bln by the end of the period.

COMMUNICATIONS

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Netflix (NFLX), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Netflix shares rose in extended trading, while WBD fell after Netflix declined to match Paramount Skydance’s revised USD 31/shr all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, walking away from its prior USD 27.75/shr agreement for its studio and streaming assets. Paramount has already agreed to pay WBD’s USD 2.8bln breakup fee to Netflix.
Meta Platforms (META) - Agreed a multi-year deal worth billions of dollars to rent Google’s (GOOG) tensor processing units for AI model development, The Information reports. Separately, the publication reported Meta scrapped its most advanced internally developed AI training chip, Olympus, last week after encountering design challenges.
Live Nation (LYV) - Upgraded at Rothschild & Co Redburn to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 193 PT (prev. 166). The firm says DoJ's breakup argument is "losing its teeth" and that a settlement is "seemingly on the horizon." Rothschild is "more comfortable reverting to a pre-lawsuit valuation multiple" for Live Nation shares. It now sees 23% potential upside.
Nintendo (NTDOY) - Plans an unwinding of strategic shareholdings that could see MUFG Bank and Bank of Kyoto sell about JPY 300bln worth of shares, Reuters reports. The company also plans a buyback.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) - Flutter shares fell in extended US trading after it reported Q4 revenue that missed expectations, and issued softer-than-expected 2026 guidance. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.74 (exp. 1.57), Revenue 4.74bln (exp. 4.85bln). It said it reached nearly 40mln customers in 2025, maintaining number one positions in US sportsbook and iGaming with Q4 market shares of 41% and 28%, respectively, and highlighted progress on acquisitions and international transformation initiatives. Expects the 2026 FIFA World Cup to support customer acquisition and product innovation, though cited transitory US market challenges. Sees FY26 revenue of 17.75-19.05bln (exp. 19.12bln), sees FY26 adj. EBITDA at USD 2.645-3.295bln.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - Weighing takeover interest, including a potential bid from Fertitta Entertainment, and is also considering a management-led buyout, FT reports.
Allison Transmission (ALSN) - Raised its quarterly dividend +7% to USD 0.29/shr.
Figs (FIGS) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.10 (exp. 0.02), Revenue 201.9mln (exp. 165.3mln); sees FY26 revenue up 10-12% from USD 631.1mln (exp. 625.6mln).
RealReal (REAL) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.06 (exp. 0.04), Revenue 194.05mln (exp. 190.72mln); sees Q1 revenue of 185-189mln (exp. 182.7mln) and FY26 revenue of 765-780mln (exp. 764.5mln).

HEALTHCARE

Eli Lilly's (LLY) Olumiant (baricitinib) recommended by CHMP for approval of expanded use in the European Union for adolescents with severe alopecia areata. The primary endpoint of this study was a SALT score ≤20 at Week 36.
Solventum (SOLV) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.57 (exp. 1.50), Revenue 2.0bln (exp. 1.96bln); sees 2026 adj. EPS at 6.40-6.60 (exp. 6.34) and 2026 organic revenue growth of 2-3% from 8.33bln (exp. 8.02bln).

CONSUMER STAPLES

Monster Beverage (MNST) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.46 (exp. 0.48), Revenue 2.13bln (exp. 2.04bln). Net sales surpassed 2.0bln for the first time, with international sales +26.9%, representing approximately 42% of total net sales; EMEA revenue +32.6%. Announced leadership changes, appointing Rob Gehring as CEO of Americas, Guy Carling as CEO of EMEA, and Emelie Tirre as Chief Strategy Officer.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) - Downgraded at Citi to 'Neutral' from 'Buy'. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade with the shares having doubled since April 2025. Dollar Tree's risk/reward is now balanced, but the company expects to report a Q4 earnings beat.

ENERGY

Shell (SHEL) - Shell is in talks to rescue Brazilian biofuels group Raizen, which has BRL 55bln in debt, FT reports. Shell and Cosan, which each own 44%, are discussing a recapitalisation including a BRL 3.5bln injection from Shell and BRL 1bln from Cosan, with creditors converting over a third of holdings into equity.
Cottera Energy (CTRA) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.39 (exp. 0.47), Revenue 1.96bln (exp. 1.89bln); sees FY26 total equivalent production 772-782 MBoed.
Venture Global (VG) - Signed a 20-year LNG supply deal with Hanwha Aerospace for 1.5 mtpa starting in 2030, bringing its total long-term contracted volume to over 46 mtpa.

MATERIALS

MP Materials (MP) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.09 (exp. 0.02), Revenue 52.685mln (exp. 58.83mln); will build a USD 1.25bln, 120-acre rare earth magnet manufacturing campus (“10X”) in Northlake, Texas, expanding its fully integrated US supply chain and lifting total capacity to ~10,000 metric tons of NdFeB magnets annually; the project is expected to create 1,500+ jobs, break ground soon, and begin commissioning in 2028.
BASF (BASFY) Q4 2025 (EUR): Revenue 14.0bln (exp. 14.04bln), Net profit 560mln (exp. 285mln). EBITDA declined to 1.03bln (from EUR 1.43bln Y/Y). FY25 revenue fell to 59.7bln (from 61.4bln), while adj. EBITDA decreased to 6.6bln (from 7.2bln). Does not expect a meaningful market upswing or significant easing of geopolitical tensions in the near term. Sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between 6.2-7.0bln (exp. 7.22bln).

INDUSTRIALS

Caterpillar (CAT), Wabtec (WAB) - Caterpillar's Progress Rail and Wabtec reached a settlement; settlement includes no admission of liability. Both remain suppliers of long-haul freight locomotives and cab components, including Tier IV models, to Class I Railroads and other customers.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.09 (exp. -0.10), Revenue 179.65mln (exp. 178.47mln). Highlighted 21 launches completed at a 100% success rate, and backlog increased +73% Y/Y to 1.85bln. It announced that it had secured a USD 816mln satellite contract from the Space Development Agency, signed a multi-launch agreement with BlackSky, and completed ESCAPADE spacecraft commissioning for Mars. Also announced acquisitions to expand manufacturing and optical capabilities. Sees Q1 revenue between USD 185-200mln (exp. 184.98mln).

REAL ESTATE

Compass (COMP) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.07 (exp. 0.02), Revenue 1.70bln (exp. 1.69bln). Organic transactions +5.6% Y/Y, total transactions +19.7% Y/Y. Sees Q1 revenue at 2.55-2.75bln (exp. 2.74bln) and Q1 adj. EBITDA of 15-35mln.
SBA Communications (SBAC) Q4 2025 (USD): FFO 3.19 (exp. 3.25), Revenue 719.6mln (exp. 725.8mln); sees FY26 AFFO at 11.84-12.29 (exp. 12.73) and sees FY26 total revenues of 2.815-2.86bln (exp. 2.85bln).