Daily US Equity Opening News - NVDA USD 100bln investment in OpenAI stalls; ORCL plans to raise USD 45-50bln this year

TODAY'S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.4%, NQ -0.7%, YM UNCH, RUT -0.3%
DAY AHEAD: The US ISM manufacturing survey is seen rising slightly, but the headline is expected to remain under 50.0. Ahead of the Treasury's refunding announcement on Wednesday, it will publish financing estimates in afternoon trading. Today's speakers include BoE's Breeden (neutral), and Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawkish, retiring). Key US corporate earnings due today include PLTR and NXPI.
BROKER MOVES: MOS upgraded at Scotiabank, FTNT downgraded; HUM downgraded at Morgan Stanley. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NVDA, ORCL, CRML/USAR/MP/UUUU/UAML, IDXX, MCD, DIS, HUM, BYDDY. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: XOM, META. For the full list, click here.
WEEK AHEAD: This week's economic highlights include: policy announcements from the ECB, BoE, RBA, RBI, Banxico; US & Canada jobs data; EZ flash inflation; PMI data; ISM surveys; Treasury QRA. Notable US corporate earnings due this week include: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), AMD (AMD), AbbVie (ABBV), Palantir (PLTR), Philip Morris (PM), Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), Disney (DIS), Amgen (AMGN), Uber (UBER), Qualcomm (QCOM), Pfizer (PFE), Eaton (ETN), Boston Scientific (BSX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Chubb (CB), Arm (ARM), Bristol-Myers (BMY), CME (CME), KKR (KKR), McKesson (MCK).
Click here for Newsquawk's week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk's weekly US earnings estimates.

NEWS:

MACRO

Government Shutdown - A partial US government shutdown entered a third day after Democrats refused to fast-track a Senate funding bill that excluded the Department of Homeland Security, pressing instead for immigration enforcement reforms, including limits on ICE. Funding lapsed on Saturday for the Pentagon and several agencies, including DHS and Transportation, amid the dispute. Congress passed roughly half the appropriations bills, keeping SNAP and WIC funded through 30 September, while FEMA retains about USD 7–8bln; air traffic controllers may be required to work without pay. The Senate approved a bipartisan package funding five bills long-term and extending DHS funding for two weeks, but House approval is pending until lawmakers return. Speaker Mike Johnson said the USD 1.2tln deal could end the shutdown by Tuesday, though Democrats led by Hakeem Jeffries and Ro Khanna remain opposed without ICE reforms.
Incoming Fed Chair Warsh - President Trump joked at a Saturday night speech that he would sue Kevin Warsh, his nominee to Chair the Fed, if he did not lower interest rates, WSJ reports. Speaking at the Alfalfa Club dinner, Trump later said he had not extracted concessions from Warsh. Separately, BBG reports that Trump’s selection of Warsh has shifted the market's debate from near-term interest rates to scrutiny of the Fed’s USD 6.6tln balance sheet, and its broader role in financial markets. NEC Director Hassett said the Fed should aim to make its balance sheet “as lean as possible”.
Minerals - US President Trump launched a USD 12bln mineral stockpile to counter China, according to Bloomberg news.

TECH

NVIDIA (NVDA), OpenAI - NVIDIA’s plans to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI to support training and operation of AI models has stalled after internal doubts, WSJ reports citing sources. The companies unveiled the agreement last September, including a memorandum for NVIDIA to build at least 10 gigawatts of computing power, with OpenAI leasing the chips. NVIDIA CEO Huang on Sunday said the proposed USD 100bln investment in OpenAI was never a commitment, stating that the company was invited to invest up to that amount, but would consider funding rounds individually.
OpenAI - A US judge signalled she may dismiss xAI’s lawsuit accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets, pending a 3rd February hearing, while allowing amendments, Reuters reports. The case alleges poaching linked to Grok. OpenAI denies misuse. Separately, Elon Musk seeks USD 134.5bln from OpenAI and Microsoft in related litigation, with jury selection due on 27th April.
US Data Centres - India will grant a 20yr tax holiday to foreign firms providing global data centre services from the country, exempting overseas services from tax through 2047, while services sold to Indian users via local units will remain taxable, Bloomberg reports.
Oracle (ORCL) - Oracle said it plans to raise USD 45-50bln of gross cash proceeds during 2026 to fund expansion of its cloud infrastructure capacity. The company expects to use a balanced mix of debt and equity financing to maintain an IG balance sheet. Announced a USD-denominated eight-parter, according to Bloomberg. Following the announcement, Fitch Ratings has assigned Oracle Corporation's proposed benchmark size unsecured bonds a 'BBB' rating. Fitch affirmed Oracle's Long- and Short-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB' and 'F2', respectively; rating outlook stable. Fitch expects capex for AI compute infrastructure to be repaid within the multi-year contract period. Fitch said Oracle’s AI infrastructure spending will exceed internal free cash flow in the near term, driving negative pre-dividend FCF of more than USD 26bln in FY26 and USD 18bln in FY27. The agency expects these investments to be recovered over multi-year customer contracts, with AI-driven revenue and EBITDA improving credit metrics from FY27 and more meaningfully in FY28–29, though strong AI demand could keep capex elevated. Meanwhile, Moody's affirmed Oracle (ORCL) with a BAA2 rating on the debt/equity announcement; the outlook remains negative.
Palantir (PLTR) - Upgraded at William Blair to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform'. Blair's commercial tracker indicates that Palantir's momentum has continued. The firm says the Trump administration "continues to go all-in" with Palantir while enterprises are adding workflows. Although Palantir's valuation remains "frothy," it looks more reasonable relative to recent venture rounds for companies tied to the AI ecosystem. The firm expects the shares to return to greater than USD 200 over the next 12 months as "positive developments suggest the hyper-growth and margin expansion can continue."
IBM (IBM) - IBM’s board elected Ramon Laguarta as a director, effective 1st March. Laguarta is Chairman and CEO of PepsiCo (PEP), a role he has held since 2018.
Fortinet (FTNT) - Downgraded at Scotiabank to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' following a quantitative analysis and recent chief information security officer checks. Now the firm is less optimistic about the shares in 2026. Scotiabank has a "hard time seeing" what will drive Fortinet's growth upwards in 2026 and "get fresh investor money to revisit the name". It believes the company's upward cycle is "likely close to cresting."
Unity Software (U), Roblox (RBLX), Take-Two (TTWO) - Piper Sandler views Friday's selloff in gaming related namesis as "indiscriminate and overdone." However, in the backdrop of software weakness and "insurgent AI capabilities like Project Genie, it's tough to fight the tape". Piper attributes Friday's pullback in part to the end of January exchange-traded fund "purges." Piper still likes the setup for Unity into earnings. Roblox "looks washed out on multiple basis". Meanwhile, Wells writes that Unity has a relationship with Google's DeepMind, and better AI tools will lead to faster game development. Based on prior releases, it appears the Unity Engine was used as a training platform for the Genie model. With regard to Roblox and Take-Two, Wells continues to believe AI will lead to a higher velocity of game development and sees it as a positive for the category.

COMMUNICATIONS

Disney (DIS) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.63 (exp. 1.57), Revenue 26bln (exp. 25.7bln); on track to repurchase USD 7bln of stock in FY26. Entertainment revenue increased +7% Y/Y; operating income declined 0.6bln to 1.1bln. Sports OI 191mln, advertising revenue growth +10% was more than offset by higher programming and production costs and a decrease in subscription and affiliate fees; temporary suspension of YouTube TV carriage had an adverse impact to segment operating income of approximately USD 110mln. Experiences quarterly revenue rose to a record of 10.0bln, and segment OI of 3.3bln; Domestic Parks & Experiences OI growth of 8%, attendance at domestic parks +1% in the quarter, and per capita spending was up 4%. Guidance: FY EPS seen growing double-digits range, weighted to H2 2026 (exp. 6.61). Meanwhile, Disney's board is close to promoting parks chief Josh D’Amaro as CEO, and plans a vote next week, Bloomberg reports. The WSJ reports that current CEO Bob Iger has told associates he plans to step down and reduce day-to-day management by the 31st of December end of his contract.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Netflix (NFLX) - The Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights will hold a hearing on examining the competitive impact of the proposed Netflix-Warner Brothers transaction Tuesday at 14:30ET/19:30GMT.
Alphabet (GOOG) - Google persuaded a judge to reject consumer demands for USD 2.36bln in penalties over privacy settings, leaving a September jury award at USD 425mln vs the USD 31bln sought, Reuters reports.
Waymo, Alphabet (GOOG) - Alphabet’s (GOOG) autonomous driving unit Waymo is reportedly seeking about USD 16bln in a financing round, valuing it near USD 110bln, according to Bloomberg. Alphabet would contribute about USD 13bln.
Verizon (VZ) - Reportedly looking at possible replacements for consumer division head Sampath, FT reports citing sources; Sampath was regarded by some as the CEO in waiting.
Meta Platforms (META) - Will face a New Mexico jury trial over allegations it enabled and profited from child sexual exploitation on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, Reuters reports. The state seeks damages and safety changes. Meta denies wrongdoing, citing safeguards and legal protections under the First Amendment and Section 230.
AT&T (T) - Has closed its transaction to acquire Lumen's (LUMN) Mass Markets fibre business for USD 5.75bln in an all-cash transaction

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Tesla (TSLA) - The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee will hold a hearing on the future of self-driving cars, on Wednesday at 10:00ET/15:00GMT; the hearing will feature Lars Moravy, Vice-President at Tesla, and Jeff Farrah, chief executive of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association. Elsewhere, WSJ reports that Elon Musk’s rocket-maker SpaceX and AI startup xAI are planning to merge into a single company, according to sources; SpaceX execs have begun informing some investors about the proposed tie-up, the report says.
Ford (F), Xiaomi (XIACF), BYD (BYDDF) - Ford held preliminary talks with China’s Xiaomi about a US electric vehicle partnership, including a possible joint venture, and also spoke with BYD, FT reports. Ford and Xiaomi denied the reports. FT says the idea is controversial amid US tariffs, security concerns, Trump comments on Chinese investment, and Chinese EV expansion.
Ford (F) - NHTSA commenced an engineering analysis into approximately 1.3mln of Ford's F-150 vehicles over unintended transmission downshift and rear wheel lock up.
Alibaba (BABA) - Plans to spend USD 431mln to attract users to its Qwen AI app during the Lunar New Year, Reuters reports. The pledge will start on February 6th and will involve incentives for dining, drinks, entertainment and leisure.
China Autos - BYD (BYDDF) led a selloff in Chinese EV stocks overnight after weak January sales signalled cooling demand. BYD shares fell as much as 5.1% after a 30% year-on-year sales drop, while Xpeng Inc. and Nio Inc. each declined more than 6%. Li Auto (LI) said it delivered 27,668 vehicles in January 2026, bringing cumulative deliveries to 1,567,883 as of 31st January; it released OTA update version 8.2 and operated 547 retail stores, 547 service centres, and 3,966 super charging stations in China. NIO (NIO) delivered 27,182 vehicles in January 2026, +96.1% Y/Y, including 20,894 NIO, 3,481 ONVO and 2,807 FIREFLY vehicles; cumulative deliveries reached 1,024,774 as of 31st January. XPeng (XPEV) delivered 20,011 vehicles in January 2026; the XPENG P7+ launched across 36 countries and debuted in Europe at the 2026 Brussels Motor Show.
Aptiv (APTV) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.86 (exp. 1.86), Revenue 5.15bln (exp. 5.11bln); sees Q1 adj. EPS 1.55-1.75 (exp. 1.91) and sees Q1 revenue at 4.95-5.15bln (exp. 5.02bln); sees FY26 revenue at 8.15-8.75 (exp. 8.49) and sees FY26 revenue at 21.12-21.82bln (exp. 21.19bln).
Hyundai Motor (HYMLF) - CEO Munoz is overseeing a USD 26bln US investment while pushing faster American production, expansion into robots and flying cars, and cultural change, WSJ reports. Hyundai sold about 1mln vehicles in the US last year, +39% vs 2019, and over 4mln globally.
Peloton (PTON) - Cut 11% of its workforce in a cost-cutting move, according to Bloomberg. CEO Stern, who took over last year, informed staff on 30th January. The reductions mainly affect engineers supporting technology and enterprise customers.
Polestar (PSNY) - Announced a USD 400mln equity investment, split evenly between Feathertop Funding and Standard Chartered. The shares are priced at USD 19.34 per Class A ADS, matching its December financing, and come with put options to Geely Sweden Holdings, providing an exit after three years. Neither investor will hold more than 10% of Polestar, and the deal is expected to close by February 5th.
Carvana (CVNA) - Bloomberg reports the Carvana’s business remains heavily reliant on debt after CEO Ernie Garcia III took on USD 3.5bln in high-interest loans to acquire Adesa near the peak of used-car prices. Now, debt remains a big part of the company's story, with many of its customers with poor credit histories also taking out loans, leading the entire business to be run on a cycle of borrowed money.
Infant Formula - France lowered the allowable limit for cereulide in infant formula, warning the move may trigger further recalls, Bloomberg reports. The tighter threshold applies to French producers ahead of European Food Safety Authority advice due on 2nd February, with the agency backing stricter limits.

INDUSTRIALS

SpaceX - May reportedly announce a merger deal with xAI as soon as this week, Bloomberg reports; Talks are ongoing and could still drag on longer or fall apart.
Boeing (BA) - Reached a contract with 1,600 workers from former Spirit AeroSystems, according to Reuters; the agreement runs until late 2030 and includes a USD 6k ratification bonus, annual wage rises, enhanced medical and retirement benefits, and additional paid time off each year. Separately, Boeing was awarded a USD 2.8bln US Air Force contract to design and develop systems for F-15K upgrades for the Republic of Korea Air Force. The sole-source Foreign Military Sales contract includes USD 540mln initially obligated.
RTX (RTX) - The jet engine shortage is showing signs of easing, according to Philippines carrier Cebu Air, and the airline has halved the number of aircraft grounded by Pratt & Whitney engine issues; CEO said the situation could normalise by late 2028 and support growth this year.
L3Harris Technologies (LHX) - Selected by the US Naval Air Systems Command to develop, test and manufacture Red Wolf vehicles for the Marine Corps’ Precision Attack Strike Munition programme. Separately, L3 Technologies was awarded a USD 283.3mln Air Force contract for ground control element support and sustainment services.
General Dynamics (GD) - Awarded a USD 255.13mln US Navy hybrid contract for fiscal 2026-2027 Strategic Weapon System Fire Control Subsystem work, with options worth USD 485.31mln.
UK Defence Stocks - UK PM Starmer said he still wants the UK to join the EU’s flagship defence fund after failed talks last year; the UK seeks access to the EUR 150bln Security Action for Europe programme, which supports joint military equipment purchases as Europe accelerates rearmament, Bloomberg reports.
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) - Halted a plan to deploy a nuclear micro-reactor on the Moon after failing to secure partners, The Telegraph reports. The government provided GBP 9mln via the UK Space Agency, with a 2029 target. The project is on ice, though resumable, amid US-only NASA plans costing up to USD 3bln.

HEALTHCARE

IDEXX Laboratories Inc. (IDXX) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 3.08 (exp. 2.93), Revenue 1.09bln (exp. 1.07bln); revenue outlook for 2026 in the range of 4.63-4.72bln (exp. 4.66bln).
Humana (HUM) - Downgraded at Morgan Stanley to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 174 PT (prev. 262). The firm said the company's 2026 bid strategy and policy risk may slow its margin turnaround. The "disappointing" Medicare Advantage advance rate notice adds 2027 pressure for Humana and a new policy overhang across Medicare Advantage, where the company is "disproportionately exposed".
GSK (GSK) - GSK is considering future cost savings in Europe, aiming to unlock funds to launch potential new blockbuster drugs, The Times reports, citing City analysts, who suggest the drugmaker could undertake a GBP 1bln efficiency programme.
Sanofi (SNY) - Said venglustat met all primary endpoints in a phase 3 study of type 3 Gaucher disease. In the PERIDOT phase 3 Fabry disease study, it failed to show superiority on the patient-reported primary endpoint, while a CARAT phase 3 study continues; LEAP2MONO showed significant neurological improvements in GD3 patients.
Revvity (RVTY) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.70 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 772mln (exp. 763mln); sees FY26 adj. EPS 5.35-5.45 (exp. 5.32) and FY26 revenue at 2.96-2.99bln (exp. 2.94bln).
InMode (INMD) - Said it is reviewing potential strategic alternatives following recent market speculation, including a non-binding proposal from Steel Partners to acquire a 51% stake. An independent committee with outside legal and financial advisers is overseeing the review, though the company said there is no certainty the process will result in a transaction, and it does not plan to provide further updates unless required.
Twist Biosciences (TWST) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS -0.50 (exp. -0.52), Revenue 103.7mln (exp. 102.04mln); sees Q2 revenue at 107-108mln (exp. 104.36mln); raised FY26 reveune view to 435-440mln (exp. 432mln, prev. 425-435mln).

MATERIALS

Mosaic (MOS) - Upgraded at Scotiabank to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' with a USD 36 PT, citing its phosphate outlook and valuation. The firm sees a phosphate stripping margin bottom, stating that the market balance should tighten as demand recovers. This is further supported by downside price risk to ammonia and sulphur.
Comex Gold, Silver - CME Group is raising margin requirements on Comex gold and silver futures after historic price falls, increasing gold margins to 8% (from 6%) for non-heightened risk profiles, and to 8.8% (from 6.6%) for heightened risk profiles, the exchange said on Friday.
Iron Ore - Algeria's President inaugurated a 950km railway built with China to enable iron-ore shipments from the Gara Djebilet mine; the project involves Feraal, a Sonarem subsidiary, and China’s Sinosteel.
Glencore (GLNCY) - Glencore Canada confirmed that it has maintained ongoing discussions with the Government of Quebec. Certain key elements still remain unresolved, however.
New Gold (NGD), Coeur Mining (CDE) - The Supreme Court of British Columbia approved New Gold's plan of arrangement under which a Coeur Mining subsidiary will acquire all outstanding shares. The transaction still requires Investment Canada Act approval and other closing conditions, and is expected to close in H1 2026.

ENERGY

OPEC - OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output unchanged for March, extending a pause in planned hikes amid Iran-US tensions that has lifted prices. The group offered no guidance beyond March.and reiterated the need for full compliance.
Devon Energy (DVN), Coterra (CTRA) - To combine and create a premier shale operator.
Tengiz, Chevron (CVX) - The Chevron-led Tengizchevroil venture has begun gradually restoring output at Kazakhstan’s largest Tengiz oil field after a partial suspension earlier this month, with the first well brought back online and five wells currently operating, according to the energy ministry on 31st January.
Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX) - Exxon and Chevron are cautious about President Trump’s call to invest USD 100bln in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry, citing disciplined capital allocation and the need for political and legal reforms, despite highlighting long-term opportunities after reporting earnings.
Venture Global (VG) - On Jan 30th, unit enters EPC contract with Worley for CP2 Phase 2, via SEC filing.

FINANCIALS

KKR & Co. (KKR) - A KKR-led consortium is close to buying Singapore-based ST Telemedia Global Data Centres from its parent, valuing the firm at more than USD 10bln, WSJ reports citing sources. KKR is pursuing the deal alongside Singapore telecommunications group Singtel.
Carlyle Group (CG) - In exploratory talks with UAE investors Mubadala, XRG and IHC about partnering on Lukoil’s international assets if its preliminary purchase proceeds, Reuters reports. The deal excludes Kazakh assets, awaits US approval, values assets at about USD 20bln, and must comply with OFAC rules before 28th February.
Nomura (NMR) - Nomura shares fell sharply in Tokyo, seeing their biggest intraday decline in more than nine months, after profit fell more than expected, partly due to crypto losses.
Cboe (CBOE) In talks to bring back all-or-nothing options to compete with prediciton markets, WSJ reports.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Tyson Foods (TSN) Q1 2026 (USD: Adj. EPS 0.97 (exp. 0.95), Revenue 14.3bln (exp. 14.00bln).
McDonald's (MCD) - Upgraded at BTIG to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 360 PT, telling investors that the firm's franchise checks suggest changes to the value/promotions strategy is driving traffic growth on a consistent basis. The firm, which expects the change in value strategy and perception to lead to the most meaningful earnings growth for the company since 2023, is additionally optimistic that the new CosMc's beverage platform will launch in the first half of this year and provide the next major catalyst for US same-store sales and transactions.

UTILITIES

NRG Energy (NRG) - Sees FY26 adj. EPS at 7.90-9.90 (exp. 9.71).

MACRO (MORE)

BLS Chief Job - President Trump said he is nominating economist Brett Matsumoto to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics, WSJ reports. Matsumoto has worked at the agency since 2015. The appointment follows Trump’s firing of the previous commissioner in August after disappointing job market data.
China PMI - China’s factory activity accelerated in January, according to RatingDog's Manufacturing PMI, rising to 50.3 (from 50.1), the strongest level since October. Production and orders improved, including exports, but business confidence fell amid rising costs. The official NBS survey showed contraction at 49.3 (from 50.1), while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4 (prev. 50.2). New orders weakened as demand stayed soft. ING said the weak official PMIs as signalling ongoing domestic demand challenges, with December’s improvement likely temporary; The bank wrote that the stronger private sector gauge reflects resilience among private, export-oriented firms, suggesting that China’s early-2026 growth remains externally driven, domestic momentum is fragile, and further policy support may be needed, pending confirmation from upcoming hard activity data.
China Economy - China highlighted remarks from a 2024 speech by President Xi Jinping; it was republished in Qiushi magazine. The remarks from Xi pledged to curb financial risks and build a powerful currency with global reserve status. The reiteration is boosting expectations of a faster push to internationalise the yuan across trade, investment and foreign exchange markets, Bloomberg reports.
JPY - The JPY fell after PM Takaichi said at a campaign rally event that a weak currency can benefit exporters, reducing speculation of government intervention; USDJPY rose towards 155.50, reversing about half of last week’s gains driven by intervention expectations, before resuming downside; on Sunday, Takaichi clarified her remarks, stating that she was not advocating for a strong or weak currency, but for building an economy resilient to FX fluctuations.
Japan Elections - Opinion polls over the weekend showed Japan PM Takaichi retaining solid public support while a new opposition alliance struggles, pointing to a comfortable lower house majority for the LDP. A win would strengthen her position after governing with 233 seats in the 465-seat chamber.

GEOPOLITICS

US-Taiwan - Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party advanced a bill to cut a special military budget, potentially jeopardising purchases of billions of dollars worth of US weapons to deter China. Their version covers only part of the systems approved by the US, significantly reducing President Lai Ching-te’s proposal.
Russia - A US delegation including Treasury Secretary Bessent held what an US negotiator described as productive and constructive talks in Florida with Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev; Envoy Witkoff said the meeting encouraged progress toward peace in Ukraine.
Iran - Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei warned of a “regional war” amid rising tensions over potential US strikes on Tehran, as Israeli military officials visited Washington, saying Iran does not seek conflict but would retaliate forcefully against any attack. Elsewhere, some major Japanese LNG buyers, including Tokyo Gas Co. and Osaka Gas Co., will skip the LNG 2026 conference in Doha over security concerns as Iran-US tensions rise, Bloomberg reports.