Daily US Equity Opening News - Samsung mulls potential US ADR listing; NVDA tightens Asian AI chip customer whitelist; ERIC Q2 revenue misses; BP sees lower Q2 upstream production; HPGLY raises outlook; EADSY and BA near Saudi orders

DAY AHEAD:

EVENTS: Testimony from Fed Chair Warsh, US inflation metrics, and bank earnings are the highlights today. US President Trump will meet with Iraq’s PM in Washington. UK Chancellor Reeves will deliver a speech at the Mansion House afterhours.
DATA: In North America, US June CPI is expected to see the headline at -0.1% M/M (prev. 0.5%), and the annual rate falling to 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 4.2%); the core rate of CPI is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.2%), and the annual core rate is seen unchanged at 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%). Elsewhere, the NFIB business optimism for June is due (prev. 95.3). Weekly ADP employment figures are due (prev. 21k).
CENTRAL BANKS: Fed Chair Warsh testifies to the House (see below for preview); Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, hawkish), Barr (voter, neutral), Cook (voter, neutral) and Bowman (voter, dovish) all speak; Fed Discount Rate minutes published. BoE Governor Bailey gives evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on the July FSR. ECB President Lagarde meets US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 6.0bln of 2028 debt; Netherlands auctions EUR 2.5-3.5bln of 2031 DSLs.
ENERGY: API weekly energy inventories due after hours. US Energy Secretary Wright will deliver remarks after the US close.
EARNINGS: Notable US corporates reporting today include: JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Fastenal (FAST).
PREVIEW - FED CHAIR WARSH: Based on recent history, Warsh’ text is likely to be released at 08:30EDT/13:30BST, and he is scheduled to begin his testimony at 10:00EDT/15:00BST. Kevin Warsh will deliver his first semi-annual testimony as Fed Chair to the House on Tuesday, followed by his report to the Senate on Wednesday. The Fed has now kept rates between 3.50-3.75% for four straight meetings, and Warshʼs term begins amid a backdrop of sticky inflation, potential tariff pass-throughs, and energy supply shocks, which have stoked fears of further policy tightening. The Fedʼs June meeting minutes released this week showed that some officials support resuming hikes ahead; while traders will look to Warshʼs remarks for any explicit thresholds that could trigger a rate rise, Warsh has notoriously leaned against any forms of forward guidance. Speaking last week, Warsh reiterated the Fed will not provide it, describing it as an obstacle to healthy FOMC debate; he added that rates should be the primary monetary policy tool, and expressed hope that new tech can improve economic understanding within a period of 9-12 months. Warsh also said that the Fedʼs dot plot projections will continue, at least in the near term. On the balance sheet, Warsh reiterated his preference for a smaller size, though declined to specify any target size; he said any change would be well deliberated and communicated. Warsh will also be quizzed on the newly established external task forces reviewing policy areas. The Fed has announced five task forces to review and improve its monetary policy conduct; each will be co-led by external figures from business and economics, including former BCBʼs Arminio Fraga, former BoE chief Mervyn King, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, former Fed Governor Jeremy Stein, and former BIS advisor William White. Ahead of Warsh’s testimony, Fed rate hike expectations for July rose sharply, with market-implied odds climbing to approximately 50%. The pricing shift followed remarks Fed Governor Waller, who on Monday said that a near-term hike should be considered if June CPI shows another hot core reading.
PREVIEW - US CPI (13:30BST/08:30EDT): US June CPI is expected to see the headline at -0.1% M/M (prev. 0.5%), and the annual rate falling to 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 4.2%); the core rate of CPI is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.2%), and the annual core rate is seen unchanged at 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%). The May inflation data was driven by higher energy prices, though core inflation remained contained, with analysts citing little evidence of secondary price effects feeding through to the broader basket. For June, however, the sharp decline in oil prices following the US-Iran MOU is expected to weigh on the headline, while analysts will continue to look for any signs of pass-through into other components. Analysts will use the CPI and PPI releases to model expectations for the June PCE data (due 30th July); in its June economic projections, the FOMC raised its view for headline PCE this year, forecasting 3.6% Y/Y (up from its prior view of 2.7%), though is expected to cool to 2.3% next year, before returning to target in 2028. Its core PCE view was revised up to 3.3% Y/Y for 2026 (from 2.7%), and is seen cooling to 2.5% next year, and 2.1% in 2028. The Cleveland Fedʼs inflation nowcasting models are tracking Juneʼs headline PCE at 3.88%, and the core measure at 3.43%.
PREVIEW - BANK EARNINGS: Big banks will begin reporting Q2 metrics today, with JPMorgan (JPM), BofA (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) all due. FactSet says that Financials are expected to post 6.6% Y/Y earnings growth (this view has been revised up vs. 5.2% at the start of the quarter). IB revenue is seen up 26% Y/Y, largely supported by the SpaceX IPO, generating direct fees, debt-raising mandates, and soft-dollar income from hedge funds allocated shares in the oversubscribed deal; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (MS) are the primary beneficiaries. CNBC says trading gains were broad-based in the quarter: equity markets rose while the Iran conflict drove volatility in fixed income, rates, oil, and currencies, lifting FICC figures. Beyond Wall Street, commercial lending is flagged as a potential positive; AI-driven corporate capex is pulling borrowers back to banks and away from private credit, with regional lenders seen as disproportionate beneficiaries. Consumer credit remains clean, underpinned by low unemployment. Traders will note any key risks around private credit contagion (though near-term concern has faded), and deposit competition potentially pressuring net interest margins if banks are forced to pay up for funding. Analysts will also look to guidance from financials to judge the sustainability of any strong performance.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

US - US CENTCOM said the US conducted a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, hitting targets in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Bandar Kangan, with explosions also reported on Qeshm Island and Kish Island. The US Navy-led JMIC announced enforcement of a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas, applying to all vessel traffic regardless of flag, while not impeding neutral transit through the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations. Axios reported the US military has plans for several additional days of strikes on Iran’s southern coastline aimed at degrading the IRGC’s ability to attack shipping.
President Trump - Trump described the conflict as “going well and fast”, and said that the MoU was built to test Iran, which he said failed to honour it. Trump said the US would hit “Pickaxe Mountain” soon, describing it as a good potential target, and reiterated that Iran has no functioning air force, navy or military.
Iran - Iran’s IRGC struck US military facilities at Bahrain’s Juffair base and in Kuwait with drones, targeted a US vessel with cruise missiles, and a US military base in Jordan was also reported hit. Iranian Kurdish opposition sites east of Erbil were also struck. Iran’s Foreign Minister said Iran will remain guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and suggested a transit fee below Trump’s proposed 20%, stating Iran “will be fair.”
Hormuz - Six US-sanctioned Iranian supertankers, with a combined capacity of approximately 12mln barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman in the past week with transponders switched off, Bloomberg reports citing ship-tracking data. The movements occurred after the US revoked Iran’s oil sales waiver on 7th July, and ahead of Washington announcing a reimposition of an Iranian port blockade.

TRADE:

China Trade Data - China’s June exports rose 27% Y/Y (exp. 19%), the strongest in four months, while imports surged 36% Y/Y (exp. 24%), the fastest in five years, leaving a trade surplus of USD 125.6bln (exp. 121bln), the second-largest on record. The outperformance was driven by global AI infrastructure demand and soaring chip prices, with South Korea’s exports to China rising 92% Y/Y, the fastest since 2010.
Australia-China - Australian Treasurer Chalmers issued an interim direction blocking three China-linked shareholders of rare earths miner Northern Minerals from voting or exercising other shareholder rights after they defied earlier orders to sell their stock.

MACRO:

US Politics - South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s sister, to complete his Senate term expiring in January. Nordone, a political novice endorsed by President Trump and Senator Tim Scott, was sworn in on Tuesday and is widely regarded as a placeholder ahead of a Republican primary scheduled for 11th August.
UK Chancellor - UK Chancellor Reeves will likely defend fiscal rules and warn that growth plans require financial-market credibility in her final Mansion House speech as chancellor; she will outline bank ring-fencing reforms and an AI strategy for financial services. She is expected to be replaced as Chancellor in incoming PM Andy Burnham’s new cabinet line-up; according to a Bloomberg poll, Ed Miliband was viewed as the least market-friendly potential UK chancellor, receiving 5% support in a survey of 187 market participants (conducted from 2-13th July), while Wes Streeting led with 34%, ahead of John Healey.
Japan - Japan’s 20yr JGB auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.52x (prev. 2.97x), approaching April’s seven-year high, with the tail narrowing to a record-matching 0.00, and the 20yr yield falling sharply in wake of the sale. Demand was supported by FinMin Katayama’s comments on GPIF domestic investment, and her suggestion of adding government bonds to the tax-free NISA programme, analysts said. SocGen estimates that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund could buy up to JPY 12.3tln of additional government bonds within its current allocation limits, assuming domestic bond holdings rise to 31% from 26.9% in March.
KRW - South Korea plans to ease FX rules in H2 to expand global use of the KRW, Bloomberg reports. Measures include incentives for KRW-settled trade, wider foreign access to KRW investments, relaxed borrowing rules, and expanded trade finance. The government also plans stronger market monitoring and deeper offshore access, addressing restrictions cited by MSCI.
NZ - RBNZ Chief Economist Conway warned that inflation may not slow as quickly as forecast, citing renewed Middle East fighting as an upside risk to the bank’s Q3 inflation projection of 3.3%. Conway said the RBNZ will respond if inflation pressures prove more persistent than expected. Elsewhere, NZ business confidence recovered in Q2, with a net 12% of firms expecting economic improvement over the next 12 months (prev. 1% in Q1), according to the NZIER; however, NZIER warned the renewed Middle East fighting is likely to unwind some of the recovery. A net 54% of firms saw higher costs in Q2, and expect further increases in Q3, with the modest Q2 performance suggesting a small GDP contraction, analysts said.
UK Retail Sales - The BRC retail sales monitor rose 1.7% Y/Y in June (exp. 2.9%); the monthly gauge was up for a second straight month. Meanwhile, UK card spending rose 1.9% Y/Y, the fastest in 11 months, according to Barclays data, boosted by the World Cup and warm weather driving spending on pubs, fans, cold drinks and summer clothing; still, Barclays said the economy likely slowed through mid-2026, with only a modest pick-up expected in H2.

TECH:

Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung is in early-stage discussions with banks about a potential US ADR offering, motivated in part by SK Hynix’s (SKHY) record-breaking USD 26.5bln US listing last week, according to Bloomberg. No decision has been made and the discussions remain at a review stage rather than a formal mandate.
Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia has more than halved the number of Asian customers authorised to buy its AI chips after introducing a stricter “white list” compliance process in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, FT reports. The tightened vetting, conducted with Department of Commerce oversight, includes data centre visits and end-user interviews, and primarily affects neocloud providers. The crackdown follows a March indictment alleging a USD 2.5bln chip smuggling scheme through a Southeast Asian pass-through entity.
Data Centres - Data centre builders including Netrality, DataBank, Edged and EdgeCore Digital Infrastructure are working with bankers to sell majority equity stakes this summer, the WSJ reports. The largest potential deal is a majority stake in DataBank, currently owned by a DigitalBridge-led consortium, which could reach USD 25bln. KKR’s newly formed Helix Digital Infrastructure is among those evaluating assets.
OpenAI, xAI (SPCX) - OpenAI filed a request seeking over USD 1mln in legal expenses from xAI after a San Francisco federal judge twice dismissed xAI’s trade secret suit over alleged employee poaching, Bloomberg reports.
SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son said nuclear fusion will become the primary power source for AI data centres within 15 years, predicting global data centre capacity needs of 3 terawatts by 2040. Son dismissed concerns about AI investment returns as “an incredibly foolish question”, and said natgas will bridge the gap until fusion becomes viable.
Apple (AAPL) - While the global smartphone market overall fell 6.7% Y/Y in Q2, Huawei and Apple each grew China smartphone shipments approximately 20% Y/Y, the only major vendors to record growth as the overall Chinese market fell 4.3% Y/Y, according to IDC data. Memory costs are up nearly 300% Y/Y, and account for over 65% of bill of materials at the low end, forcing Android (GOOG) vendors to raise prices and polarising the market toward premium devices.
SK Hynix (SKHY) - Overnight, SK Hynix shares pared an early drop of as much as 9% before printing gains in excess of 4% in Seoul, after a dramatic intraday reversal that would have pushed its two-day loss beyond 20% had the decline held.
Ericsson (ERIC) - Ericsson reported Q2 revenue of SEK 52.7bln (exp. SEK 53.9bln), EBIT of SEK 5.92bln (exp. SEK 5.96bln), adj. EBITA of SEK 6.88bln (exp. SEK 6.82bln), and net income of SEK 4.08bln (exp. SEK 4.43bln). Q3 adj. gross margin is guided at between 48-50%, with some Networks margin pressure expected from higher network rollout volumes. Outgoing CEO Ekholm cited increased macro and geopolitical uncertainty in the outlook.

COMMUNICATIONS:

Social Media - The UK government is set to unveil proposals as soon as Wednesday to turn autoplay features off by default for 16 and 17 year-old social media users and make overnight curfews standard for that age group, according to Politico. The measures accompany the existing social media ban for under-16s announced last month.
Shutterstock (SSTK) - Shutterstock CEO Paul Hennessy stepped down with immediate effect, with CFO Rik Powell named interim CEO while retaining his CFO role. Hennessy will remain in a non-executive advisory capacity through 7th August. The board is also planning to engage a strategic adviser to assist with the company’s go-forward strategy.

CONSUMER:

Brown-Forman (BF.B) - Brown-Forman CEO Lawson Whiting, who has led the company since 2019, is retiring; the board is launching a search for a successor from both internal and external candidates, WSJ reports. Whiting will remain in the role until a replacement is appointed.
Chipotle (CMG) - Chipotle will open its first Mexican restaurant in San Pedro Garza Garcia, Nuevo Leon, on 16th July. Operated with Alsea, it is the first site under their April 2025 development agreement. Further Nuevo Leon openings are planned this year, followed by expansion into Mexico City in 2027.
Watches of Switzerland (WOSGF) - Watches of Switzerland reported FY26 revenue of GBP 1.83bln (exp. GBP 1.78bln), adj. EBIT of GBP 155mln (exp. GBP 148.4mln) and operating profit of GBP 170mln (prev. GBP 150mln YoY), and it affirmed its FY27 outlook; CEO cited an encouraging start to the year, underpinning confidence in another year of strong revenue growth.

FINANCIALS:

BlackRock (BLK) - A BlackRock private credit fund is in talks to extend the maturity of a USD 17mln loan to Indian e-commerce brand aggregator Goat Brand Labs to September 2028 from December 2027, with BlackRock also asked to forgo a 6% annual cash coupon, Bloomberg reports. The development adds to a series of challenges for BlackRock’s Asian private credit strategy, including a departed Australasia head, a troubled China loan and a missed fundraising target, the report adds.

REAL ESTATE:

CoStar (CSGP) - CoStar appointed Robin Rossmann as CFO, effective 31st July. Rossmann will succeed Christian Lown, who is leaving for an opportunity outside the company’s industry.

ENERGY:

China Crude Imports - China’s crude oil imports fell 41% Y/Y to 29.27mln tons in June, the smallest volume in almost a decade, as Hormuz disruptions and weak domestic demand reduced the call on regional suppliers, according to customs data. Separately, several Chinese refiners will receive no Saudi term crude allocations for August, with at least two requesting no cargoes and others receiving no provisional allocation, Bloomberg said. Saudi Arabia also recently cut its flagship grade to a discount for Asian sales for the first time since 2020, though buyers say spot alternatives still remain cheaper.
BP (BP) - BP expects Q2 upstream production to fall, in line with previous guidance, partly due to Middle East disruption; Oil trading results are expected to be slightly higher vs Q1, when BP reported exceptionally strong trading. It sees Q2 upstream production of 2,170-2,220mboepd (prev. 2,339mboepd Q/Q), with the decline attributed to seasonal maintenance in the Gulf of America and Middle East disruption; gas and low carbon energy is guided between 750-770mboepd (prev. 798mboepd); oil production seen between 1,420-1,450mboepd (prev. 1,541mboepd). Net debt is expected at USD 22-23bln (prev. USD 25.3bln Q/Q).

INDUSTRIALS:

Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) - Hapag-Lloyd raised its FY EBITDA view to USD 2.7-3.7bln (from USD 1.1-3.1bln), citing strong demand and freight rates, Reuters reports. It also lifted FY EBIT guidance to USD 100mln-1.1bln, while warning of uncertainty from rate volatility and geopolitical challenges.
Airbus (EADSY), Boeing (BA) - Riyadh Air is finalising orders for approximately six Airbus SE A350-1000 widebody jets and around 30 Boeing aircraft, according to Bloomberg citing sources. An announcement is planned at the Farnborough International Airshow next week.
Trex (TREX) - Q2 prelim. adj. EBITDA USD 112mln, Q2 prelim. revenue USD 418mln (exp. 397.49mln; prev. saw 388-403mln). CFO said Q2 sales are expected to exceed prior guidance, driven by strong sell-through across channels and products. It raised FY26 guidance due to a strong start to the year. Trex also announced a realignment of its North American distribution network, with Specialty Building Products becoming its sole national distributor for decking and railing products, while regional distribution will expand through WS Building Materials, Coastal Forest Products and BlueLinx. Trex will transition away from Boise Cascade and said it will work with partners to ensure uninterrupted product availability during the shift. Also raised FY26 guidance; sees revenue between USD 1.215-1.25bln (exp. 1.21bln; prev. saw 1.185-1.23bln), adj. EBITDA between USD 335-350mln (prev. saw 315-340mln), and maintained capex guidance at between USD 100-120mln.

HEALTHCARE:

Psychedelic Drug Trials - The Department of Veterans Affairs and Department of Health and Human Services signed an MOU to expand cooperation on psychedelic drug trials. The agreement supports increased clinical-trial participation and data sharing with the FDA.
Evotec (EVO) - Evotec reported H1 Revenue of EUR 300.1mln (exp. 365.4mln), and it sees FY sales between 570-610mln (exp. 730.2mln, prev. saw 595-635mln).
AstraZeneca (AZN) - AstraZeneca entered an exclusive licence agreement with Dizal Pharmaceutical for worldwide development and commercialisation rights to Zegfrovy, an oral irreversible EGFR inhibitor for lung cancer; AZ will pay USD 600mln upfront, with additional payments of up to USD 900mln.