[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks grind higher on continued US-Iran updates, spot gold finds support

US and Iran continued to strike each other for a third night, after President Trump warned that they would hit Iran “very hard”. POTUS also announced a naval blockade on all Iranian ports, which is set to begin at 21:00 BST / 16:00 EDT. Click here for full analysis
Crude benchmarks were firmer throughout the APAC session, though price action was more-or-less sideways. Into the European morning, the bias turned a bit more bullish after the UKMTO reported another incident on a tanker near Oman. This comes after two Emirati tankers were struck overnight. It is clear that the IRGC will not accept any transits through undesignated paths through the Strait of Hormuz; as such, traffic through the Hormuz is waning. Marine Traffic data has shown that only two tankers completed passages through the Hormuz in the 24 hours up to 07:25 BST today; this compares to c. 28 ships/day following the US-Iran MoU signing.
As it becomes apparent that ships are no longer going through the Hormuz (and added risk of the blockade and/or nuclear attacks), the crude complex has moved higher. Brent Aug’26 (+3.2%) sits at the upper end of a USD 83.68-86.72/bbl range.
Spot gold is a little firmer this morning, and trades within a narrow USD 3,983-4,034/oz range; currently holding just above the USD 4k/oz mark. The yellow metal appears to be taking a breather following a couple of sessions in the red, which was spurred by recent geopolitical escalations and a hawkish Fed speak via Waller. Elsewhere, base metals hold a positive bias following stronger-than-expected Chinese data overnight. In brief, Exports and Imports both rose from the prior, and by more than the consensus. 3M LME Copper holds within a USD 13,461-13,624/t range.