Daily US Equity Opening News - TSLA falls on profit miss, weaker margins; GOOG down on capex view; IBM cuts FY growth view; TXN falls after lofty expectations; STM lower on data centre outlook; AMZN faces Senate probe on China influence

DAY AHEAD:

  • DATA: In Europe, Eurozone flash consumer confidence for July is expected at -16.8 (prev. -17.7); UK CBI industrial trends orders (prev. -45) and business optimism (prev. -65) are also due. In North America, weekly US initial jobless claims (exp. 212K, prev. 208K), continuing claims (exp. 1,809K, prev. 1,805K), and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (exp. 0.14, prev. -0.10) are due. In Canada, May retail sales are seen rising 1.0% M/M (prev. 0.5%) and 3.5% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%).
  • CENTRAL BANKS: ECB expected to hold all three of its key rates (preview below); ECB’s Lagarde to speak following the policy decision. South Africa’s SARB expected to cut rates by 25bps to 7.25% (prev. 7.00%), and the CBRT is expected to hold at 37% (prev. 37%).
  • SUPPLY: US sells USD 21bln of 10yr TIPS; the Treasury will also announce sizes for next week’s 2yr, 5yr and 7yr supply, as well as a 2yr FRN (analysts see no changes).
  • ENERGY: EIA weekly natgas storage data is expected show a build of 29BCF (prev. 41BCF).
  • EARNINGS: Notable US corporates reporting today include: Intel (INTC), RTX (RTX), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone (BX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Newmont (NEM), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Honeywell (HON), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), Dow Inc. (DOW), American Airlines (AAL), Mobileye (MBLY), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF).
  • ECB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (13:15BST/08:15EDT) - The ECB is widely expected to hold rates today. Recent Eurozone data show headline and services inflation easing below prior readings and consensus forecasts, however, inflation remains above the ECB’s medium-term target, and the renewed US-Iran conflict has pushed energy prices higher, keeping upside risks alive. Money markets assign a 16% probability to a July hike, rising to around 88% for September, with a move fully priced by October. With no change expected this month, attention will fall on any signals regarding the outlook for the remainder of the year. That said, analysts at Berenberg and Goldman Sachs expect little forward guidance, and suggest that President Lagarde will not offer any explicit steer at the press conference. See full preview here.

NEWS:

TRADE:

  • US-China - The Trump administration is said to be divided over restricting Chinese AI models, according to WIRED. White House officials want to prevent Chinese laboratories such as Moonshot from distilling frontier US models, but an executive order banning access is not currently planned. The Commerce Department instead favours incentives for US companies to develop open models to counter China.

MACRO:

  • Fed’s Barr - Trump allies have discussed using an external review of Silicon Valley Bank’s 2023 collapse as potential grounds to remove Fed Governor Barr, Bloomberg reports. The White House denied pursuing that route.

COMMUNICATIONS:

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) - Alphabet shares fell almost 3% in extended trading after a sharply higher AI capex forecast and negative cash flow unsettled investors, overshadowing strong cloud revenue. Q2 EPS 9.11 (exp. 2.88), Q2 revenue USD 119.8bln (exp. 117.00bln). EPS included a USD 98.0bln net gain, primarily from unrealised gains on equity securities. Operating income USD 40.77bln (exp. 40.55bln), capex USD 44.92bln (exp. 44.15bln), revenue ex-traffic acquisition costs USD 103.62bln (exp. 101.07bln). Google Services revenue USD 94.54bln (exp. 94.32bln), Google Cloud revenue +82% Y/Y to USD 24.77bln (exp. 22.46bln), Google Advertising revenue USD 81.63bln (exp. 81.12bln), Google Search and other revenue USD 63.27bln (exp. 63.28bln) and YouTube advertising revenue USD 11.06bln (exp. 10.81bln). Gemini app monthly active users reached 950mln, with daily active users tripling Y/Y, while model APIs processed approximately 22bln tokens per minute, up from 16bln in Q1. Management highlighted strong AI infrastructure, AI solutions and security demand, while noting that Gemini Flash models are benefiting from their balance of performance and cost. The company raised its FY26 capex outlook to between USD 195-205bln (prev. saw 180-190bln), citing stronger-than-expected capacity delivery and demand that continues to exceed supply, and reaffirmed plans for another significant capex increase in 2027.
  • Shutterstock (SSTK) - Will suspend future quarterly cash dividends while reviewing capital-allocation priorities. It plans to focus on debt reduction, lower interest expense and stronger financial flexibility to support long-term shareholder value.

TECH:

  • Intel (INTC) - Intel is considering partners, including SK Hynix (SKHY), to help operate its delayed Ohio semiconductor project, Semafor reports. No formal operating talks have begun, with interest described as very early. SK Hynix this week denied it negotiating to acquire the campus, stating that it does not plan to buy it.
  • Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD) - Intel and AMD are seeking one-to-two-year server CPU purchase commitments from Chinese customers as AI demand tightens supply, Reuters reports citing sources.
  • IBM (IBM) - Shares were little changed in extended trading despite the company cutting its FY growth outlook, with analysts saying that weak data-centre mainframe sales and delayed customer deals signal execution issues, and pressure from AI-related hardware budget shifts. Q2 adj. EPS 2.93 (exp. 2.93), Q2 revenue USD 17.2bln (exp. 17.26bln). Software revenue was USD 7.76bln (exp. 7.99bln), consulting revenue USD 5.33bln (exp. 5.39bln) and FCF USD 2.54bln (exp. 2.95bln). Management said several large deals failed to close within expected timelines, accounting for most of the infrastructure revenue shortfall, while around 80% of annual software revenue is recurring. CEO said IBM remains well positioned to help clients capture value from AI and is using AI and automation to accelerate productivity, revenue growth and profitability. Currency expected to reduce reported growth by around 1.5ppts in Q3; lowered FY26 constant-currency revenue growth outlook to between 4-5% (prev. saw above 5%) and maintained its expectation for FCF to increase by approximately USD 1bln Y/Y. Said it remains on track to deliver a quantum computer by 2029.
  • Micron (MU), Tesla (TSLA) - Micron provided Tesla with a significant allocation of memory chips on reasonable terms amid broader AI-driven supply shortages and elevated prices, Elon Musk said on Tesla’s quarterly earnings call.
  • SK Hynix (SKHY) - SK Hynix has set a 2.5% cap on share conversions into its US ADR, with the quota now fully exhausted, preventing further conversions, according to Korea Securities Depository.
  • Uber Technologies (UBER) - Uber cut 10% of customer service roles to simplify operations, strengthen office collaboration and expand AI use, Bloomberg reports. Remote employees were asked to relocate to hub offices. The reductions follow June cuts of 23% in its people division, affecting under 1% of 34K global staff. Uber is still recruiting for more than 500 roles.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) - Shares fell 3.3% in extended trading after an upbeat forecast failed to meet lofty investor expectations after a recent strong rally, despite broad growth across industrial, data centre and autos. Q2 EPS 2.14 (exp. 1.95), Q2 revenue USD 5.46bln (exp. 5.24bln), driven by industrial, data centre and automotive demand. Trailing 12-month cash flow from operations was USD 8.7bln, and free cash flow USD 6.5bln. It invested USD 3.9bln in R&D and SG&A, spent USD 3.3bln on capex and returned USD 5.8bln to shareholders. Management said automotive customers have resumed component spending after working through excess inventories, while AI data-centre demand is supporting growth. Sees Q3 EPS between 2.23-2.57 (exp. 2.18), sees Q3 revenue between USD 5.65-6.15bln (exp. 5.62bln). Maintained FY26 capex outlook at between USD 2-3bln, down from an average of USD 4.8bln over the previous three years.
  • ServiceNow (NOW) - ServiceNow shares rose 5.7% in extended US trading after subscription revenue topped expectations and the company highlighted momentum in cybersecurity and rising adoption of its agentic AI offerings. Q2 adj. EPS 0.90 (exp. 0.86), Q2 revenue USD 3.99bln (exp. 3.93bln). Subscription revenue +24.5% Y/Y to USD 3.877bln, current remaining performance obligations +21% Y/Y to USD 13.20bln. It recorded 123 transactions above USD 1mln in net new annual contract value, up nearly 40% Y/Y, and ended the quarter with 658 customers generating more than USD 5mln in annual contract value, up approximately 23% Y/Y. Management said agentic ServiceNow AI deployments increased ninefold in nine months, while AI net new annual contract value growth continued to exceed expectations and the AI Control Tower supported demand across Security and Risk. ServiceNow sees FY26 revenue between USD 15.76-15.78bln (exp. 16.2bln).
  • Nokia (NOK) - Q2 EPS 0.07 (exp. 0.06), Q2 revenue EUR 4.82bln (exp. 4.92bln). Comparable operating profit EUR 434mln (exp. 382mln). Network Infrastructure net sales +11% Y/Y to EUR 2.04bln, Mobile Infrastructure net sales +6% Y/Y to EUR 2.68bln. Sees Q3 net sales increasing between 3-7% Q/Q, and expects comparable operating profit to remain broadly flat vs Q2 because of the timing of software revenue recognition, followed by a meaningful increase in Q4. Raised FY26 comparable operating profit view to between EUR 2.1-2.6bln (prev. saw 2.0-2.5bln).
  • Dassault Systemes (DASTY) - Dassault Systèmes backed its 2026 outlook after Q2 revenue rose +4% at constant currencies to EUR 1.56bln (exp. 1.54bln). It will acquire ArisGlobal for USD 1.8bln in cash, plus up to USD 200mln linked to AI revenue targets, with closing expected in H2 2026.
  • STMicroelectronics (STM) - Reported Q2 net profit of USD 222mln (exp. 209.9mln), Q2 revenue USD 3.49bln (exp. 3.46bln), gross profit USD 1.22bln (exp. 1.22bln), with gross margin of 34.8%, in line with guidance. CEO said demand increased further, with strong bookings across all end markets, improved visibility and signs of tight supply in several product categories, while distribution inventory fell below the company’s standard target. Expects revenue growth to accelerate in Q4, primarily driven by customer programmes in AI data centres and low-Earth-orbit satellite communications. Sees Q3 revenue of about USD 3.70bln (exp. 3.79bln) and gross margin of about 37%, sees Q4 revenue of USD 4bln. Raised its FY26 AI data-centre revenue ambition to above USD 1bln, and expects revenue from the segment to rise well above USD 2bln in 2027, assuming current demand and customer engagements continue.

CONSUMER:

  • China Autos - China has resumed issuing robotaxi permits gradually after an industry safety review prompted by an outage affecting more than 100 Baidu (BIDU) vehicles in Wuhan, Bloomberg reports. Momenta received a Shenzhen testing licence, while Baidu operations in Wuhan appear to be restarting.
  • Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla shares fell over 4% in extended trading after profits missed expectations, as discounting, weaker regulatory credit income, margin pressure and heavy AI and robotics spending outweighed record vehicle deliveries. Q2 adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.52), Q2 revenue USD 28.2bln (exp. 25.99bln). Gross margin 16.8% (exp. 19.4%), automotive gross margin ex-regulatory credits declined sequentially to 16% (from 19%). Automotive revenue USD 20.52bln (exp. 18.68bln), services and other revenue USD 4.58bln (exp. 3.72bln), energy generation and storage revenue USD 3.14bln (exp. 3.77bln). Active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48mln (exp. 1.40mln), with nearly 1.5mln paid FSD customers globally. FCF USD -1.09bln (exp. -3.64bln). Exited Q2 with its largest automotive backlog since 2023, while the robotaxi service is live in seven major US metropolitan areas. Management said Cybercab production has begun at Gigafactory Texas, Tesla Semi remains on schedule for production this year, and first-generation Optimus production lines are being installed. Sees FY26 capex above USD 25bln, and expects spending to increase over the next two to three years as it expands robotaxi, Optimus, semiconductor, solar manufacturing and computing capacity.
  • European Autos - European new-car registrations +13% Y/Y in June, the strongest since October 2023, driven by a 51% surge in battery-electric vehicle sales; Chinese brands also gained market share.
  • Porsche (DRPRY) - Porsche is reportedly considering cutting a further 5-6k jobs by 2035, according to Manager Magazin.
  • Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon is under investigation by the US Senate Small Business Committee over alleged negligence allowing Chinese influence within its online marketplace, Bloomberg reports. Republican staff said they found “compelling evidence” but cited no specifics. The inquiry follows claims that Amazon employees in China sold favours to merchants, adding to existing regulatory scrutiny denied by Amazon.
  • Nestle (NSRGY) - Nestle topped Q2 organic sales expectations, and formed a waters JV with Peranel, where it expects about EUR 3bln. Q2 organic sales +3.7% (exp. +3.6%), Q2 sales CHF 21.79bln (exp. 21.71bln). H1 sales were CHF 43.1bln (exp. 43.1bln), while H1 net income was CHF 3.47bln (vs 5.07bln Y/Y). Agreed to form a 50/50 JV with Platinum Equity to create Peranel, assigning the business an enterprise value of CHF 4.5bln and implying cash proceeds of approximately CHF 2.8bln for Nestle at closing.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - Q2 adj. EPS 0.59 (exp. 0.76), Q2 revenue USD 3.15bln (exp. 3.31bln). Management said investments in enhanced service and hospitality offerings in Macao supported Y/Y volume growth across all gaming segments, although unusually low rolling-play hold weighed on reported results. Marina Bay Sands continued to deliver industry-leading financial performance in Singapore.
  • Sonoco Products (SON) - Q2 adj. EPS 1.51 (exp. 1.48), Q2 revenue USD 1.89bln (exp. 1.88bln). Productivity and cost-control initiatives helped offset inflation in logistics, chemicals, resins and other raw materials. Industrial Paper Packaging operating profit +4% Y/Y and +29% Q/Q, supported by productivity gains; North American uncoated recycled paperboard trade tons +6%, mill utilisation reached 95%. Consumer Packaging operating profit declined approximately 5% Y/Y, but increased 22% Q/Q; paper can volumes +9% in EMEA and APAC, although overall segment volumes fell 1.8%. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 5.80-6.20 (exp. 5.84), with results expected toward the low end of the range; sees FY26 revenue between USD 7.25-7.75bln (exp. 7.45bln), sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between USD 1.25-1.35bln.

FINANCIALS:

  • Raymond James (RJF) - Q3 adj. EPS 3.14 (exp. 2.91), Q3 revenue USD 3.93bln (exp. 3.91bln). Results for the first nine months of the fiscal year reached records for net revenue, pretax income, net income and EPS. Private Client Group fee-based assets rose to a quarter-end record of USD 1.15tln, while annualised domestic Private Client Group net new asset growth was 6.6% for the first nine months. Entered Q4 with strong momentum, supported by robust financial adviser recruiting, healthy investment banking pipelines and ample capital and liquidity to fund continued growth.
  • BNP Paribas (BNPQY) - Q2 net income EUR 4.35bln (exp. 4.23bln), Q2 revenue EUR 14.09bln (vs 12.58bln Y/Y), profit before tax rose to EUR 6.06bln (from EUR 4.55bln Y/Y). Corporate and Institutional Banking revenue +13% Y/Y, supported by a 43% increase in equity and prime services revenue to a record level, while FICC revenue was broadly flat. NIM increased by around 17% Y/Y in the French and Belgian retail businesses, but declined by nearly 5% in Italy. CET1 ratio reached the 13% target ahead of schedule, helped by an EUR 858mln capital gain from the Ageas transaction; cost of risk increased by more than 7% as the bank added provisions for geopolitical uncertainty. Declared an interim dividend of EUR 3.23 per share, including the exceptional gain from the Ageas/AGI transaction, and confirmed its FY26 and FY28 targets.
  • UniCredit (UNCRY) - Q2 net income EUR 2.91bln (exp. 2.8bln), Q2 revenue EUR 6.52bln (exp. 6.49bln). Management said Commerzbank (CRZBY) is evolving from an attractive financial investment into a strategic transaction with substantial industrial value-creation potential through the application of UniCredit’s operating blueprint. Expects to deploy capital at an overall return on allocated capital of 15%, supporting growth, distributions and per-share metrics. Raised FY26 net profit view to well above EUR 11bln (prev. saw equal to or above 11bln), raised FY28 net profit view to well above EUR 13bln (prev. saw around 13bln), and sees FY30 net profit well above EUR 15bln.

REAL ESTATE:

  • Equity Residential (EQR) - Q2 normalised FFO/shr 1.02 (exp. 1.01), Q2 revenue USD 785mln (exp. 787.7mln). Management said the demand environment remained solid, with occupancy and resident retention at historically high levels. CEO highlighted an increasingly supportive job market, and declining new supply across most markets, which should support the combined company’s outlook. Raised FY26 same-store revenue and net operating income guidance.
  • Crown Castle (CCI) - Q2 AFFO of USD 1.13 (exp. 1.00), revenue USD 967mln (exp. 992.89mln). Backed FY26 AFFO guidance of USD 4.53-4.65, and adj. EBITDA of USD 2.67-2.72bln. After selling its Fibre and Small Cell businesses, it repurchased USD 1bln of shares and repaid over USD 7bln of debt.

INDUSTRIALS:

  • Norfolk Southern (NSC), Union Pacific (UNP) - Union Pacific reached a deal with Canadian National to grant expanded Midwest access rights in exchange for CN dropping its opposition to Union Pacific’s USD 71.5bln merger with Norfolk Southern, WSJ reports. CN will gain track rights between Tuscola and East St. Louis, customer access between St. Louis and Kansas City, and Norfolk Southern’s ownership interests in two terminal railways. The agreement is contingent on Surface Transportation Board approval and merger closing.
  • CSX Corporation (CSX) - Q2 EPS 0.54 (exp. 0.52), Q2 revenue USD 3.94bln (exp. 3.89bln). Total volume +6% Y/Y to 1.68mln units. CEO said the company managed substantial volume growth while maintaining its focus on safety and productivity, supporting improved financial performance. Expects to strengthen service execution and build further momentum across the business in H2 2026.
  • United Rentals (URI) - Q2 EPS 12.76 (exp. 11.59), Q2 revenue USD 4.41bln (exp. 4.21bln). CEO said growth accelerated during the quarter, customers remained optimistic, particularly around large projects, and the company maintained strong cost discipline. Expects healthy growth to continue, supported by large-project activity, customer backlogs and year-to-date momentum. Raised FY26 revenue view to between USD 17.5-17.8bln (exp. 17.26bln; prev. saw 16.9-17.4bln) and raised FY26 adj. EBITDA view to between USD 7.975-8.125bln (prev. saw 7.625-7.875bln).
  • Southwest Airlines (LUV) - Q2 adj. EPS 0.94 (exp. 0.52), Q2 revenue USD 8.4bln (exp. 8.58bln). Revenue per available seat mile +16.2% Y/Y, adj. revenue per available seat mile +20.1% Y/Y, above prior guidance, on capacity growth of 0.2%. Cost per available seat mile ex-fuel and special items +3.4% Y/Y, below prior guidance. CEO said results were well ahead of expectations despite nearly USD 900mln of additional Y/Y fuel expenses. Sees Q3 adj. EPS between 0.50-0.75 (exp. 0.80), Q3 available seat miles down 1% to flat Y/Y, revenue per available seat mile growth between 17.5-19.5% Y/Y, and cost per available seat mile excluding fuel and special items growth between 3.5-4.0% Y/Y. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 3.25-4.25 (exp. 3.13; prev. saw at least 4.00).
  • Waste Connections (WCN) - Q2 EPS 1.50 (exp. 1.35), Q2 revenue USD 2.56bln (exp. 2.54bln). Adj. EBITDA margin expanded to 32.8%, including 70bps of underlying margin growth despite sharply higher fuel-related costs and lower commodity values. Raised FY26 revenue view to between USD 10.02-10.05bln (exp. 10.0bln), and sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between USD 3.33-3.34bln, with potential upside from improving commodity trends and additional acquisitions.
  • Thales (THLLY) - Reported Q2 revenue slightly below expectations, while first-half orders, sales and adj. EBIT all increased Y/Y; maintained FY26 guidance.
  • Daimler Truck (DTRUY) - Raised FY26 industrial revenue, adj. EBIT and unit sales guidance, based on the current USMCA framework; however, Daimler Buses lowered its sales forecast on weak LatAm/Mexico markets.
  • Rollins (ROL) - Q2 adj. EPS 0.32 (exp. 0.34), Q2 revenue USD 1.10bln (exp. 1.09bln). Results fell short of management’s expectations as slower growth in parts of the residential pest-control business was driven by weaker consumer-initiated demand through search, digital media and inbound calls. CEO said Rollins remains cautious on near-term demand trends, although lead volumes improved toward the end of June and maintained that momentum through the first weeks of July.

ENERGY:

  • TotalEnergies (TTE) - Q2 adj. profit was broadly in line with expectations, while net income, cash flow and adj. EBITDA rose strongly despite lower hydrocarbon production; raised quarterly dividend +5.9%, and plans up to USD 1.5bln of buybacks in Q3; maintained its USD 15bln FY26 investment guidance.
  • Kinder Morgan (KMI) - Q2 adj. EPS 0.37 (exp. 0.32), Q2 revenue USD 4.48bln (exp. 4.20bln). Raised quarterly dividend +2% Y/Y to 0.2975/shr. Exec said the company’s fee-based model, long-term contracts and strategically located assets continue to support stable cash flows. LNG exports, rising power demand and industrial expansion are increasing demand for natgas infrastructure. Maintained its FY26 budget for adj. EPS of 1.36 (exp. 1.49), net income attributable to KMI of USD 3.1bln, adj. EBITDA of USD 8.6bln. Based on H1 performance, now expects FY26 adj. EBITDA to be more than 5% above budget, and adj. EPS to be more than 12% above budget, while year-end net debt-to-adj. EBITDA is expected at 3.6x versus the 3.8x budget.
  • Repsol (REPPY) - Q2 net income missed expectations, while adj. income exceeded forecasts; announced a share buyback of up to EUR 500mln.

MATERIALS:

  • Anglo American (NGLOY) - Anglo American’s Q2 copper production was unchanged, while diamond and manganese output rose sharply; iron ore, steelmaking coal and nickel production declined; maintained 2026 production guidance.
  • Reliance (RS) - Q2 adj. EPS 6.27 (exp. 5.47), Q2 revenue USD 4.63bln (exp. 4.25bln). The company delivered its second-highest quarterly revenue and record tons sold, supported by improving customer activity, extended mill lead times, strong pricing and a larger-than-expected contribution from the US border wall contract. Adj. pretax income increased 40% Y/Y. CEO said market conditions remained constructive and the company continued to outperform industry shipment trends. Sees Q3 EPS between 6.40-6.60 (exp. 5.25). Ex-the border wall project, it sees Q3 tons sold down between 2-4% Q/Q due to normal seasonality, and average selling price per ton up between 1-3% Q/Q. Including the project, Q3 tons sold are expected to increase between 9-11% Y/Y, with an estimated 2% sequential and 7.5% Y/Y contribution, and consolidated average selling price per ton is expected to be flat to up 2% Q/Q.
  • Kaiser Aluminium (KALU) - Q2 adj. EPS 5.53 (exp. 2.66), Q2 revenue USD 1.30bln (exp. 1.08bln). Record results were driven by a higher-value packaging mix, improving aerospace demand, favourable scrap spreads, strong customer activity and metal-price-lag benefits. CEO said underlying operations remain strong despite an expected normalisation in aluminium price dynamics during H2. Sees FY26 conversion revenue growth at the high end of its prior 10-15% range; raised FY26 adj. EBITDA growth view to between 45-55% Y/Y (prev. saw 20-30%); revised outlook assumes neutral metal-price lag through year-end, and excludes any continuation of the metal-lag or consumption-cost tailwinds recorded in H1.

HEALTHCARE:

  • Roche (RHHBY) - H1 core EPS 10.85 (vs 11.08 Y/Y), H1 sales CHF 30.36bln (exp. 30.32bln). Operating profit CHF 9.67bln (vs 10.33bln Y/Y), net income CHF 7.33bln (vs 7.83bln Y/Y). Said Swiss franc appreciation, particularly against the USD, reduced sales growth by 8ppts and core operating profit and core EPS growth by 11ppts. Pharma sales CHF 23.6bln (vs 24.0bln Y/Y), increasing 6% at FXN, with Xolair the main growth driver; Hemlibra, Ocrevus and Phesgo also contributed significantly. Diagnostics sales CHF 6.7bln (vs 7.0bln Y/Y), increasing 3% FXN.
  • Pfizer (PFE) - FDA granted Priority Review to Pfizer’s supplemental application for Talzenna plus Xtandi in men with HRR gene-altered metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer. A decision is due in Q4 2026.
  • Molina Healthcare (MOH) - Q2 adj. EPS 1.51 (exp. 1.40), Q2 revenue USD 10.87bln (exp. 10.78bln). Medicaid and Medicare delivered solid performance, while the imbalance between Medicaid rates and medical cost trends appears to have stabilised. CEO said 2026 is expected to be the trough year for Medicaid pretax margins, and that premium and EPS drivers support profitable growth in 2027. Raised its FY26 adj. EPS view to at least 5.25 (exp. 5.16; prev. saw at least 5.00); revised outlook reflects a 1.50/shr improvement in Medicare, offset by a 1.50/shr reduction in Marketplace earnings; ex the Marketplace revision, FY26 adj. EPS would have increased to 6.75. Guidance also includes a 1.50/shr loss from the new Florida Medicaid contract in Q4, and a 1.00/shr loss from the traditional MAPD product, which the company plans to exit in 2027.
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) - Etcamah combined with a CDK4/6 inhibitor has been approved in the EU as a first-line treatment for advanced ER-positive breast cancer.
Context

A heavy after-hours slate with a common thread: the AI capex complex is now being priced on guidance quality rather than headline beats. Alphabet and Texas Instruments both beat on the quarter and fell anyway, the former on a raised capex trajectory and negative cash flow, the latter on expectations running ahead of a strong print; in past cycles this pattern, beats sold and capex punished, has tended to mark the point where the market shifts from rewarding AI spend to demanding returns on it, with the hyperscalers and their suppliers trading as one peer set on the capex line. Tesla's miss fits a separate and older template: automotive margin ex-credits remains the operative metric, and the equity case has repeatedly hinged on whether robotaxi and Optimus timelines hold, so the delivery and FSD subscription numbers matter less to the tape than the margin trajectory. IBM and STMicro add the enterprise-demand angle, with deal timing and data-centre visibility the swing factors rather than current-quarter numbers. The Amazon Senate inquiry sits outside the earnings frame; Senate committee probes of this kind have historically run long with headline risk concentrated at hearings and any referral, not at the announcement. Worth noting the session ahead carries the ECB and a heavy earnings calendar including Intel, so cross-reads on server and foundry demand will arrive quickly.

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