Daily US Equity Opening News - TSM Q2 revenue up +36%; SKHY falls amid earnings concerns; SSNLF prepares 2nm TSLA AI5 chip production; AAPL sues OpenAI over hardware design theft; MGM in talks with People Inc; NPPHY offers EUR 7.5bln for AKZOY paints unit

DAY AHEAD:

EVENTS: At least 25 leaders will meet in Paris to strengthen support for Ukraine; the 37-country Coalition of the Willing will discuss air defence, Patriot missile production, an anti-ballistic system and security guarantees.
DATA: The week’s data slate starts off on a quiet note; the US monthly budget statement for June will be released in the afternoon (prev. USD 293bln).
CENTRAL BANKS: The ECB ESRB annual report for 2025 will be published. On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Waller (voter) will speak on the economic outlook at the NYABE. Fed’s Bowman (voter) will give remarks on modernising financial regulation. BoE’s Pill (hawk) will speak on financial regulation, innovation and growth.
SUPPLY: EU auctions EUR 6.0bln across 2029, 2033 and 2041 lines. This week, the UK will issue 2038 index-linked Gilts.
ENERGY: OPEC Monthly Oil Market report is due today.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: US inflation and retail sales data, Fed Chair Warsh’s dual testimony to lawmakers, a BoC policy announcement, China activity data, UK GDP. US corporate earnings season begins, with big financials set to report this week. Notable corporates reporting this week include: JPMorgan (JPM), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLX), Goldman Sachs (GS), Prologis (PLD), Progressive (PGR), Abbott (ABT), BlackRock (BLK), Wells Fargo (WFC), Travelers (TRV), United Airlines (UAL), Alcoa (AA).
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NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

US-Iran - The US launched renewed strikes on Iran to curb attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM said. Iranian media confirmed strikes near Sirik, Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Iran officials declared recent diplomacy futile, and targeted US facilities across Gulf states, while Qatar and the UAE also faced Iranian attacks. Iran said it has again ‘closed the Strait’, though some vessels continued crossing. Six commodity carriers reportedly crossed the Strait on Sunday with transponders switched off, according to Kpler data; secret passages outnumbered observable crossings for three consecutive days as visible shipping traffic declined.
Ukraine-Russia - Ukraine struck the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region on the weekend, approximately 760km from Moscow, causing a fire. It also attacked 10 tankers and four ferries in the Sea of Azov. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin on Sunday reported more than 350 drones flew towards the Moscow region.
South China Sea - China renewed its rejection of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling on its tenth anniversary, describing it as “illegal and invalid” with no binding force. The US, Philippines, Japan and 11 other countries had issued a joint statement reaffirming commitment to a rules-based Indo-Pacific. China separately condemned Japan’s support for the ruling, accusing Tokyo of meddling in regional affairs.

TRADE:

China Critical Minerals - China is establishing a new Beijing-backed mining investment vehicle aimed at bolstering its grip on overseas mineral resources, as it pushes back against US and European efforts to curb its dominance of the critical minerals supply chain, Bloomberg reports.
US-Mexico - Mexican President Sheinbaum noted that the USDA estimates US imports of Mexican sugar will reach 1.15mln metric tons in the 2026-2027 period, a 512% increase from the prior cycle. The figure represents up to MXN 4.76bln for Mexican producers.

MACRO:

US Politics - Republican Senator Lindsey Graham died on Saturday after a brief and sudden illness. His seat was up for re-election this year. The State’s Governor Henry McMaster will appoint a replacement through January; Senior House Republicans urged South Carolina officials not to appoint a House member to the vacant seat, fearing damage to their narrow majority, Politico reports. Trump allies also reportedly oppose Nancy Mace, citing clashes with the President and her gubernatorial performance.
US UAW Union - The DoJ launched a grand jury investigation into UAW President Shawn Fain over allegations he pressured a senior union official to secure benefits for his fiancée and her sister, Bloomberg reports. A federal grand jury has subpoenaed the union’s court-appointed monitor as part of the probe.
Japan - Japan has no immediate plans to change GPIF’s target asset allocations, though the government could encourage greater domestic investment within existing allowable deviation ranges, according to government sources cited by Reuters. One source said markets “reacted much more than we expected” to FinMin Katayama’s remarks, which were not intended to imply a formal allocation change.
Hungary - Hungarian lawmakers are expected to remove the Viktor Orban-allied President via a constitutional amendment backed by PM Magyar’s two-thirds parliamentary majority, part of Magyar’s effort to break with his nationalist predecessor, Bloomberg reports.

TECH:

TSMC (TSM) - TSMC reported Q2 revenue +36% Y/Y at TWD 1.27tln (exp. TWD 1.26tln), with June revenue rising +67.9% Y/Y to TWD 442.68bln.
SK Hynix (SKHY) - SK Hynix shares fell more than 8% overnight despite the chipmaker’s successful Nasdaq ADR debut last week, as investors shifted focus to near-term earnings concerns, and questions over the durability of the AI memory boom. Elsewhere, CEO Kwak Noh-jung said 2027 will be the worst year in the memory industry’s history from a supply perspective, with customer demand expected to exceed production capacity beyond 2030, Reuters reports. Elsewhere, Korea Investment & Securities forecast SK Hynix’s Q2 operating profit at KRW 60.4tln vs the market consensus of KRW 65tln. Analysts say the miss is likely due to Hynix’s higher HBM revenue mix vs peers, which is likely to result in a lower ASP increase than the market average.
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), Tesla (TSLA) - Samsung has begun preparations to manufacture Tesla’s AI5 chip using its 2nm process at its Texas plant, according to Yonhap. The chip is designed to power Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, Optimus robots and AI data centres, and has already completed its tape-out process. Initial operations are expected to begin later this year ahead of mass production in 2027.
OpenAI, Apple (AAPL) - Apple sued OpenAI and two employees in California, alleging theft of confidential hardware designs and information about unreleased technologies. Apple claimed OpenAI used former and current employees as it develops AI devices, describing broader misconduct by senior leadership. OpenAI denied interest in competitors’ trade secrets.
OpenAI - OpenAI safety systems head Johannes Heidecke will leave following a reorganisation integrating safety and research teams, Wired reports.

COMMUNICATIONS:

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Oregon’s attorney general withdrew a court motion seeking to delay Paramount’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros., Reuters reports. The Oregon Department of Justice said Paramount had refused to comply with an investigative demand and that the state withdrew the motion while considering its next steps.
Meta Platforms (META) - Meta’s AI detector failed to identify 55% of cropped images generated by its Muse Image model, Reuters found. It detected all 40 originals, but often lost the Content Seal watermark after heavy cropping. Meta said the tool remains a preview, while experts noted cropping, resizing, compression and editing can weaken watermark-based detection.
AT&T (T) - AT&T agreed to pay USD 184.1mln to settle claims it underpaid pensions to about 300K current and former employees, Reuters reports. The deal includes USD 149.1mln in additional benefits, while lawyers may seek up to USD 35mln. AT&T denied wrongdoing and said it settled to avoid prolonged litigation. The proposed settlement still requires judicial approval.
Disney (DIS) - Disney’s live-action Moana remake opened to USD 43mln domestically (exp. USD 60-65mln) and USD 52mln overseas for a global debut of USD 95mln (exp. USD 140mln), vs a USD 250mln production budget, Variety reports. The result ranks among the weakest openings for Disney’s live-action remakes and could result in losses of around USD 100mln in its theatrical run.

CONSUMER:

MGM Resorts (MGM) - MGM Resorts is negotiating a potential deal with Barry Diller’s People Inc. after receiving a takeover offer, according to the WSJ. MGM formed a special board committee and appointed advisers to assess the proposal, which it believes undervalues the company. People Inc. already owns about 26% of MGM Resorts.
Ford (F) - Ford of Canada and Unifor reached a tentative three-year national labour agreement covering more than 5,000 unionised employees in Canada. The deal remains subject to ratification by Ford-Unifor members, and Ford of Canada will not disclose its terms during the ratification process.
Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Bloomberg writes that Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume faces mounting pressure after failing to win supervisory board backing for his restructuring plan on Thursday, after 12 of 19 board members rejected it, and the works council issuing an ultimatum demanding he address the workforce directly, adding that there has been “a massive loss of trust” in him and that “enough is now enough.” Blume said “smarter solutions” exist other than closing factories, and highlighted 20% average cost reductions at German plants last year, Bild reports; he added that VW must continue cutting costs and streamline models.
Hyundai Motor (HYMPY) - Hyundai workers began a three-day partial strike demanding larger bonuses, higher pay and job guarantees before AI and Atlas robot deployment. The union seeks a bonus tied to 30% of prior-year net profit, retirement at 65 and increased regular bonuses; Hyundai’s offer included KRW 89K higher base pay, a lump sum, 350% bonus and 15 shares.
Seven & i Holdings (SVNDY), SoftBank (SFTBY) - Seven & i Holdings is considering issuing several hundred billion yen of new shares to SoftBank and PayPay, signalling greater willingness to share control with strategic partners, Bloomberg reports.
Tobacco, Shopify (SHOP) - Shopify told merchants to remove all vape products from stores hosted on its platform, Reuters reports. The company cited changed legal restrictions on electronic nicotine delivery systems. The move followed pressure from US state and city law-enforcement authorities over widespread sales of illegal vapes through websites using Shopify’s services.
Prediction Markets - Bloomberg notes that Americans betting on the World Cup via prediction markets may face a lighter tax burden than those using sportsbooks, as prediction market contracts are structured as investments and may qualify for investment-related tax breaks rather than being subject to gambling tax rules.

FINANCIALS:

Corporate Bonds - Primary dealers have accumulated an aggregate net-short position in corporate bonds of approximately USD 4bln this year, the first such instance in data going back to 1998, according to Crisil Coalition Greenwich analysis of Fed data, cited by Bloomberg. Dealers are short roughly USD 13.7bln of bonds maturing in five years or more, partially offset by a USD 9.66bln long position in shorter-dated debt, with the skew toward the long end.
Apollo (APO) - Apollo-backed Brightspeed plans to raise fresh capital in 2026 via asset-backed financing secured by subscription cash flow and position itself for a sale, WSJ reports. The broadband provider has raised nearly USD 5.9bln over two years, but is consuming cash because of heavy fibre-network capex.
Brookfield (BAM) - Brookfield is in exclusive talks to acquire a 10% stake in Hudson Square Properties in Manhattan, valuing the 13-building, 6.2mln sqft portfolio at USD 3.5bln, WSJ reports. Brookfield would also become long-term operating partner, joining existing partners Trinity Church and Norges Bank Investment Management. WSJ Adds that AI and tech firms have driven strong leasing demand in the area, with asking rents rising nearly 20% recently.

REAL ESTATE:

Corporate Landlords - Bloomberg notes that US housing legislation enacted on 11th July bars institutional investors owning at least 350 homes from buying single-family properties, but includes numerous exemptions. The compromise follows President Trump’s call to exclude large investors, and leaves major corporate landlords with opportunities to expand.

INDUSTRIALS:

Boeing (BA), Ryanair (RYAAY) - A Ryanair Boeing 737 made an emergency landing in Thessaloniki after a right-engine issue and cabin decompression at 16,000 feet, the US NTSA said. Debris apparently dislodged a window, pulling a passenger’s head through the opening. The passenger survived and was met by emergency responders; the cause remains unclear.

ENERGY:

China Crude Imports - Bloomberg says that China’s crude imports are expected to recover from a months-long slump as refiners snap up cheap Middle Eastern barrels. Energy Aspects forecasts seaborne and pipeline inflows returning to pre-war levels above 11mln BPD by November.

MATERIALS:

BASF (BASFY) - BASF contained a nitric acid leak at its main German plant on Saturday, which sent a chemical cloud over the facility before being hosed down by firefighters, Bloomberg reports. The affected unit was shut down, the chemical was captured in a containment vessel and no injuries were reported. Elsewhere, BASF is reportedly considering a partial IPO of its agricultural business, targeting a valuation of between EUR 20-30bln, according to Handelsblatt.
Regis Resources (RGRNF), Vault Minerals (REDLF), Genesis Minerals (GSISF) - Regis will not match Genesis’ superior proposal for Vault Minerals, saying required terms failed its value and return thresholds. Regis expects Vault to terminate their agreement, triggering an approximately AUD 50.7mln break fee.
Akzo Nobel (AKZOY), Nippon Paint (NPPHY) - Nippon Paint submitted a EUR 7.5bln offer for Akzo Nobel’s decorative paints business, valuing the unit at approximately 12x 2026 EBITDA; Akzo’s management said the proposal significantly undervalues its decorative paints business and continues to recommend a merger with Axalta (AXTA). Nippon’s bid follows the collapse of a joint offer by Nippon and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) for the entirety of Akzo Nobel last month.

HEALTHCARE:

Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Phase 3 FRONTIER4 interim data showed denecimig’s safety and efficacy were consistent across dosing regimens in 426 haemophilia A patients aged one year and older. Injection-site reactions were mild and transient, with no clinical evidence of neutralising antibodies.
Biogen (BIIB), Eisai (ESAIY) - LEQEMBI’s once-weekly 500mg subcutaneous autoinjector showed efficacy and safety comparable with intravenous administration in early Alzheimer’s disease. Exposure was bioequivalent at 104% and consistent across body weights.