ECB's Lane says he is comfortable that hiking rates makes sense under milder scenario

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US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jun) 50.2 (Prev. 53.2)

US Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/13) 223.25K

ECB's Lane says he is comfortable that hiking rates makes sense under milder scenario

Russia proposes to increase exports of fertilizers, medicines, and other high-value-added products to ASEAN countries, according to reports

Pantheon Macro, post-BoE, expects the Bank Rate on hold through to the end of 2027

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  • Open minded to looking through shocks if they are not long lived.
  • Even if oil is falling, think food will keep going up.
  • Hike aims to contain spread of energy shock.
  • Current situation is a medium shock.
  • Tightened last week from a position of firming neutral.
  • Think upper end of neutral has crept up to 2.5% from 2.25%.
  • Does not want to yank rates around.
  • Employment stable and real incomes keep going up.
  • Euro appreciation still putting a downward pressure on prices.
  • Sees a prolonged period of high inflation.
  • It is viable for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to pursue divergent interest rate paths.

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