ECB's Nagel says there is not enough clarity about what happens in April, we need optionality; says question about Strait of Hormuz is essential, two weeks can bring a lot of new information
- Situation developed a little bit better over the course of last week.
- Inflation expectations are well anchored, but this could still change.
- There is no pre-commitment.
- Somewhere in between baseline and adverse scenario.
- Asked about if ECB will hike next, says he will not exclude one or the other.
- He needs more information.
- We need some time.
- As long as situation in middle east and Strait of Hormuz is not resolved, the danger increases they see an inflation push.
- Appreciates optimism in equity markets.
- ECB should be vigilant and cautious and look at all information.
- Asked about pain threshold for inflation, does not give concrete answer, says ECB will deliver on price stability.
Context
ECB's Nagel emphasizes the need for caution and flexibility regarding future monetary policy, indicating uncertainty surrounding potential hikes. While inflation expectations remain stable, he notes the impact of geopolitical developments, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, could shift this outlook. This dovish stance suggests that the ECB is not yet ready to commit to any specific course of action, reflecting a wait-and-see approach that could influence market sentiment and the euro's performance.
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