EIA Expectations: Crude 1.6M, Distillate -1.7M, Gasoline -1M

• Crude: 1.6M, prev. 4.405M (Private +4.2M)
• Distillate: -1.7M, prev. -1.53M (Private -0.5M)
• Gasoline: -1M, prev. 0.688M (Private -3.2M)
• Cushing: prev. -1.314M (Private +1M)
• Production: prev. 13.830M

Weekly EIA releases follow a well-worn sequence: the private survey prints the evening before, the official data land mid-morning, and WTI trades the gap between the two as much as the headline build or draw itself. Here the private set shows crude roughly in line with consensus but a materially larger gasoline draw and a Cushing build against expectations, which frames the read-through: a crude print near 1.6M after a prior large build would confirm softer balances, while any deviation toward the private gasoline number would shift attention to product cracks rather than the outright. The split that matters is crude versus products, since refinery runs and seasonal turnaround timing often push the two in opposite directions, and the market tends to fade crude-only surprises when the product side tells a different story. Production at prevailing elevated levels keeps the supply side of the ledger heavy regardless of the weekly print. Cushing direction is the tell for prompt structure, as draws at the hub have historically been what tightens front spreads even when the national crude figure looks benign.