EUROPEAN OPEN: AAL LN shortlists bidders for USD 5bln Queensland coal sale; RIO LN hires bankers for Pilbara asset sale; Canada/Quebec near GLEN LN Horne smelter deal; BX consortium in talks to take SNR LN private

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities start the week around flat; overnight, APAC stocks saw losses and oil rose as Iran-backed Houthi forces joined the conflict and a larger US military presence fuelled escalation fears. The Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the war began, while strikes were reported across the region over the weekend. Trump said talks with Iran were progressing, though he also floated seizing Kharg Island, according to the FT; the WSJ said he is weighing an operation to extract Iran’s uranium, while CBS reported allies were told diplomacy would take time. In commodities, Brent rose towards USD 117/bbl before trimming gains and was trading around USD 108/bbl as the European day got underway, with the entry of Houthi militants and the arrival of more US troops heightening fears of wider energy-market disruption. Government bonds rose globally as concerns that the Middle East conflict could slow growth boosted demand for sovereign debt, with investors reportedly shifting their focus to the growth hit rather than the inflation narrative, according to Bloomberg; Treasuries advanced as surging oil prices revived haven demand despite lingering inflation concerns. In FX, remarks from Japan’s top currency official strengthened the JPY, stating that bold action may be needed if current conditions persist, and authorities could act decisively; he added concerns were rising over speculative activity in crude oil futures and FX markets. USDJPY moved back below 160 and extended losses after BoJ Governor Ueda said currency moves have a major impact on the economy and prices. Gold rose above USD 4,500/oz after last week’s first weekly gain since the conflict began; bullion recovered early losses as dip-buyers emerged despite higher oil and weaker equities, with investors awaiting clearer signs on the duration of the conflict. Elsewhere in metals, aluminium rose after Iran struck two production sites in the Middle East. In central banks, ECB’s Villeroy said the central bank is ready to act to contain inflation expectations, though it is premature to bet on the timing of possible rate hikes; he added that the Iran war could deliver a negative supply shock, slowing growth and accelerating consumer-price rises. On the data front, Lloyds’ UK business barometer for March rose to 55 from 44.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In communications, Telecom Italia (TIT IM) will not renew a mobile phone tower agreement with Inwit when it expires in August 2030 (that would have extended the contract to 2038); it leaves Telecom Italia without a new long-term tower arrangement, Bloomberg notes. In materials, Anglo American (AAL LN) has shortlisted Stanmore Coal/M Resources, BUMA and Dilmar for its Queensland coal portfolio valued at more than USD 5bln, with final bids due in late April or early May, The Australian reports; Stanmore is viewed as the frontrunner, while Yancoal was not shortlisted, and is instead nearing a deal for EMR Capital’s Kestrel stake. Rio Tinto (RIO LN) reiterated 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance of 323-338mln tonnes after cyclone disruption, with 8mln tonnes affected, about half recoverable, and shipments resumed at most key ports; separately, Rio Tinto has hired bankers to prepare a sell down of its Pilbara power generation and transmission assets in Western Australia, with a sale process expected to launch in H2. Canada and Quebec are reportedly close to a deal with Glencore (GLEN LN) to keep the Horne copper smelter open, offering regulatory concessions and considering about CAD 150mln for pollution-control upgrades. In industrials, Blackstone (BX) is part of a consortium in advanced talks to take Senior (SNR LN) private, FT reports; no final decision has been made. The deadline for the parties to make a firm offer is set to expire early next week. Of note for French industrials, French factory closures rose almost 30% last year to about 160 from 121 in 2024, while new openings fell to about 103 from 115; the finance ministry cited pressure from Asian competitors, the impact of US tariffs and higher energy prices. In consumer sectors, Nestle (NESN SW) issued an update after more than 400k KitKats were stolen; in a statement, KitKat said that cargo theft is an escalating issue for businesses. In tech, aUS District Court issued its pre-judgment decision in litigation between Syntel, owned by Atos (ATO FP) since 2018, and Cognizant and its subsidiary TriZetto, ordering Syntel to pay EUR 204.1mln; Atos said the decision does not have any material impact on it. In financials, Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) urged shareholders to back its board slate at the 15th April AGM; it said the proposed list would ensure strong alignment between governance and executive leadership, and provide stability during the integration of Mediobanca (MB IM). Raiffeisen (RBI AV) is acquiring BBVA’s (BBVA SM) Romanian Garanti unit for EUR 591mln as it reshapes its central and eastern European operations beyond difficulties at its Russian unit. The deal also includes BBVA leasing unit Motoractive IFN, and will make Raiffeisen the third-largest bank in Romania. In healthcare, Novartis (NOVN SW) said final two-year Phase III APPLAUSE-IgAN results showed Fabhalta delivered a statistically significant, clinically meaningful improvement in estimated glomerular filtration rate slope versus placebo in IgA nephropathy. In notable broker updates, Big Yellow Group (BYG LN) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Land Securities (LAND LN) was upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Klepierre (LI FP) was upgraded at Goldman Sachs ; Sodexo (SW FP) was upgraded at Jefferies; Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM FP) was upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Orsted (ORSTED DC) was upgraded at BofA; Compass (CPG LN) was upgraded at BNP Paribas; Segro (SGRO LN) was upgraded at Kempen.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Across the European morning, inflation data from German regions will be released ahead of the national data in the early afternoon; German CPI is expected to rise to 2.6% Y/Y in March (from 1.9%). Eurozone sentiment indicators for March are expected to edge lower, although the inflation and price expectations measures are seen ticking up. Today’s ECB bulletin will cover the impact of trade policy on the Euro area. Stateside, Dallas Fed’s manufacturing gauge is expected to rise to 0.7 in March (from 0.2). On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Williams (voter, neutral; text and Q&A are expected) will speak on the economic outlook; Fed Chair Powell (voter; no text expected, but there will be a Q&A) will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University. UK Chancellor Reeves will in an online call today urge G7 partners to increase domestic energy supply and say the recent rise in oil and gas prices benefits Russia, while calling for more investment in renewable energy and nuclear power to reduce reliance on gas.
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US NFP, ISMs and Retail Sales; EZ CPI; RBA Minutes; BoJ Tankan. Notable corporate earnings due this week include: NKE, MKC, FDS, PVH, CAG.
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