EUROPEAN OPEN: ALV GY profit rises, starts new buyback; DTE GY beats on German, US growth; PUM GY reports loss, scraps dividend; STLAM IM swings to loss on EV charges; RR/ LN to return up to GBP 9bln to shareholders; US-Iran talks ahead

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are starting mixed. Overnight, APAC stocks were mostly positive as the majority of the region took its cue from gains on Wall Street, where tech led the advances, and Nvidia (NVDA) posted stronger than expected earnings. The CNH hit a near three-year high after the PBoC set a stronger daily fixing at 6.9228. The JPY outperformed G10 peers after BoJ Governor Ueda signalled the central bank will assess past hikes while maintaining its tightening path, while BoJ board member Takata (hawkish dissenter) urged further rate hikes, stating that inflation has heated to the core, and communication should assume the price stability target is nearly achieved. Elsewhere, the BoK kept its benchmark rate at 2.5% in a unanimous decision, signalling no policy changes for six months, following the four cuts since October 2024. Gold rose toward USD 5,200/oz, up nearly 6% in six sessions, as traders weighed US tariffs, Middle East tensions and sanctions on Iran-linked entities announced on Wednesday. LME copper fell, ending a two-day rally, as traders awaited a rebound in Chinese industrial demand after the Lunar New Year break. Lithium prices rose after Zimbabwe suspended concentrate exports. Overnight, Lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange climbed, and shares of lithium producers across China, Australia and the Americas also advanced. Oil steadied ahead of today’s US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva; Brent around USD 71/bbl after a two-day decline, and WTI was near USD 66/bbl; some major Middle Eastern producers boosted exports amid uncertainty over potential regional conflict, it was Wednesday reported. On today’s docket, the highlight is the US-Iran nuclear talks resuming in Geneva; weekly US jobless claims and sentiment indicators out of Europe also feature.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) initially rose after it reported Q4 earnings and revenue above expectations, and issued stronger-than-guidance, driven by a 75% surge in data centre revenue amid booming AI demand. However, shares pared gains to end the extended trading session flat; reports cited traders being underwhelmed by a routine beat, as well as concerns over customer concentration and competition, while its outlook excluded China data centre revenue. Shares of Salesforce (CRM) fell 4.1% in extended trading after it issued sales guidance that came in below expectations, overshadowing a quarterly earnings beat and a new USD 50bln share buyback commitment. Snowflake (SNOW) shares dipped 2% afterhours following mixed quarterly earnings and guidance that, while upbeat on revenue, failed to excite investors amid broader concerns about software-sector growth. In financials, Allianz (ALV GY) reported a record operating profit for 2025, and guided 2026 operating profit broadly in line Y/Y; it cited strong performance across retail and commercial lines in its property and casualty business, and declared a dividend of EUR 17.10/shr. AXA (CS FP) reported FY net profit +24% Y/Y, and ahead of expectations, noting top-line growth and a one-off gains from its sale of AXA Investment Managers to BNP Paribas. Several Asian banks are preparing bids for HSBC’s (HSBA LN) retail assets in Indonesia, Bloomberg reports. Munich Re (MUV2 GY) reported Q4 net profit -12% Y/Y, below expectations, on negative currency effects from a weaker USD; FY net profit rose, exceeding its target; elsewhere, it said renewals at the start of the year fell 7.8% as the group declined business not meeting return requirements. Of note for UK Banks, top banks are resisting a BoE initiative to boost lending by lowering capital levels, according to Bloomberg; in December, the central bank’s FPC said the benchmark Tier 1 capital level should be 13%, 1ppt below prior guidance, a move that has drawn criticism over potential risks. In communications, Deutsche Telekom (DTE GY) reported Q4 adj. EBITDAAL above expectations, as T-Mobile US (TMUS) revenue rose in 2025, while German revenue fell; for 2026, sees core profit of EUR 47.4bln and free cash flow after leases of EUR 19.8bln, slightly below consensus. WPP (WPP LN) plans to cut GBP 500mln a year in costs by 2028, and sell non-core businesses as part of a restructuring, targeting a return to growth by 2027. The overhaul will create four divisions and invest about GBP 300mln annually in AI platform WPP Open. In consumer sectors, Puma (PUM GY) forecast a 2026 operating loss, and said revenue will decline in the low- to mid-single-digits; it scrapped its dividend as it works to clear excess inventory, and reposition for a return to profitable growth in 2027; CEO said 2025 was a reset year. Stellantis (STLAM IM) reported an adj. operating loss for the six months through December after scaling back its EV push, leading to impairments and charges; the bulk of the negative result was tied to North America. In utilities, Engie (ENGI FP) will acquire UK Power Networks from CK Group (CKHUY) for GBP 10.5bln in equity value, valuing the company at about GBP 15.8bln on an enterprise basis (10x its estimated 2027 adj. EBITDA); Engie said the deal will expand its UK footprint and be accretive in the first full year after closing. Schneider Electric (SU FP) Q4 organic revenue topped expectations, with growth of +10.7%, driven by triple-digit Y/Y growth in its pure data centre business; FY adj. EBITA was slightly above consensus; it said FX reduced Q4 revenue by EUR 701mln, as a weaker USD weighed on results; affirmed its FY26-30 targets, and said its CFO is to step down. In energy, Shell (SHEL LN) is in talks with Adnoc’s XRG investment arm and others over a minority stake in its AUD 34bln North West Shelf gas export plant in Western Australia, Bloomberg reports. In industrials, Rolls-Royce (RR/ LN) reported 2025 revenue of GBP 20.05bln (vs 17.84bln Y/Y), operating profit of GBP 3.46bln (vs 2.46bln Y/Y) and basic EPS of 29.55 (vs 20.29 Y/Y); announced a GBP 7-9bln multi-year share buyback for 2026-2028; sees 2026 underlying operating profit of GBP 4.0-4.2bln, and free cash flow of GBP 3.6-3.8bln. The UK is expected to announce a contract for Leonardo’s (LDO IM) British helicopter factory in the coming days, Bloomberg reports; the deal had faced uncertainty due to delays in government funding. In materials, Core Lithium (CXOXF) sold a stockpile of ore from its idled Finniss mine in Australia to Glencore (GLEN LN), raising cash to support a potential restart of the project; the company shut Finniss in early 2024 after it began operating at a loss as lithium prices declined. In healthcare, Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) profits missed expectations in Q4; it highlighted continued uptake of ELEVIDYS (which was developed in collaboration with Roche (ROG SW)), which now has traditional approval for ambulatory patients, alongside plans to re-engage the non-ambulatory community, and cited durable performance from its PMO exon-skipping portfolio. In notable broker updates, MTU Aero (MTX GY) was downgraded at Kepler; Sandoz (SDZ SW) was downgraded at Barclays.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: US and Iran are set to hold a third round of indirect talks in Geneva today, mediated by Oman, amid heightened military tensions; President Trump has threatened strikes if no nuclear deal is reached, while Iran rejects halting uranium enrichment but signals possible concessions; the US delegation will include envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the Iran side is being led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. On the data front, the Chicago Fed will release its labour market indicators (its’ January update had the unemployment rate forecast at 4.36%, vs 4.3% in the official data); weekly jobless claims are seen at 215k from 206k; continuing claims (which coincide with the traditional BLS survey window for the Feb jobs report) are seen at 1.86mln from 1.869mln. In Europe, sentiment indicators and consumer confidence for February are due. On today’s speakers’ slate, ahead of her testimony to Senate lawmakers today, Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (voter, dove) said the banking system remains strong but traditional lenders need tools and flexibility to compete effectively; she said non-bank financial institutions are increasing their share of total lending without facing the same capital, liquidity and other prudential standards as regulated banks. Fed’s Miran (voter, dove) will give an interview on Fox Business News, and Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 Voter, Dovish) will also speak to Fox. Elsewhere, ECB President Lagarde will speak at an economics meeting (text expected), and BoE’s Lombardelli (neutral) will give remarks and chair a panel at a BoE annual networking event. Supply comes by way of EUR 5.5-6.5bln of 2031 and 2036 BTPs, as well as EUR 2.0-2.5bln of 2035 CCTeu from Italy; US will sell USD 44bln of 7yr notes. Notable US companies reporting today include: Intuit (INTU), Monster Beverage (MNST), Dell Technologies (DELL), Sempra (SRE), Vistra (VST), CoreWeave (CRWV). In energy, EIA’s natural gas stocks data for the week will be published.